Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Geordiesnow]

The reality is, the models are painting yet another  very mild picture after the xmas period where the weather does cool down marginally. All this blocking highs are more promising signs but it does look like the Euro high is going to be influencing the UK weather once again. 

Mildest ever December looks almost a certainty now. 

[MR EXTREMES]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Oooh!!!

some may wake up to a white Chrimbo.

Yes wet to!

although 09/10 changed pretty dramatically from mild wet windy to winter wonderland I think the models are picking up on a signal but I won't hold my breath until it's at least in the 144hrs even that range is hide in knockers woodshed 

Edited December 21, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[Floatylight]

On ‎05‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 8:27 AM, Frosty. said:

 

Hi guys

Thank you all for my wonderful reading material everyday.keep up the good work.please when you post a chart can you say what your seeing as well.

cheers floatylight.x

[karlos1983]

If we could just get a low to eject South east into the Med, we could be in business with the Height rises to the NE.

[Eskimo]

I think some people are the missing the point that there's increasing evidence (although not certain) of the dismantling of the dreaded polar vortex over the next 7-10 days. That's a good start at least.

Edited December 21, 2015 by PerfectStorm

[Allseasons-Si]

And the pv @234hrs is getting suffercated by the wave 2,nice.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, no surprise to me, to witness the 12zs return with the official trend of heights to our N and NE. When I say official I am going on what the tv forecasts have been stating over recent days in their long-rangers. A few questions remain as to what happens post Christmas even now though.

• What will the surface Temperatures will be, come the D6 to D10 timeframes I'm speaking of?
• With increasing chances of night-time frosts I'm more than happy to bank such prospects, whatever happens around then.
• Those heights aren't diminishing across mainland Europe, sadly.
• Furthermore, the Atlantic regime is forecast to win out eventually, but not without a fight.
• Several days of crisp sunshine are certainly feasible and foggy mornings might yet return. 

Could still be some wintriness around over the Christmas period for a few lucky ones, more especially for those positioned nearer the Arctic (UK wise)  and with elevation on their side. Over to tonight's ECM and will it return to its main trend of late or back to those less promising outputs of last night.

I'm not even contemplating January for now as that is for those with greater knowledge than I, of such indicators as ENSOs, MJOs, Kelvin Waves and close shaves or whatever else might rhyme. 

 

Time for me to put my feet up and stop stressing over what might or might not happen.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[radiohead]

The FI theme on the GFS appears to be wet and windy rather than old. Perhaps the ECM will offer some something interesting later.

Edited December 21, 2015 by radiohead

[Mucka]

Of course it can be (is) very frustrating chasing cold in the UK but also the fact it is so rare makes the snow magical when we get it and it is a big part of why many of us got interested in the weather and model watching.

Nice to see some improved output this afternoon even if we are still waiting for some deep cold to be modeled for the snow desert that is England.

[gottolovethisweather]

34 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If we could just get a low to eject South east into the Med, we could be in business with the Height rises to the NE.

Quite right Karlos, and therein lies the bigger issue as also mentioned in my latest post. Not that I'm overly disappointed as even the coldest Winters had their mild spells and desperate looking synoptics at times for a continuation of the cold. We truly need to get some dryness to set in, yer know Mother Nature those cold Winter mornings of old. Once a succession of those come along then you just never know where the middle third of Winter might end up. Alas, I had forgot to remember (!) that is only the Winter Solstice tomorrow and as that is when Winter truly begins, I can start thinking/dreaming of something better from here on in.

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[MPG]

40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm pretty happy with this chart from UKMO

 

Some nice warm air shooting up poleward. would love to see the next couple of frames 

 

39 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Well, well, well....

Can't see any cold air ovet the UK? Looks averge with S/SW winds. Or is this GP's warm up before the cold hit

[mulzy]

8 hours ago, mulzy said:

Last night's short-term CFS gives the best possible solution at day 10.

 

12 hours ago the CFS was showing a raging Easterly, now it's showing a raging Westerly!  Truly is the canon fodder of all models...

 

[johnholmes]

On 16 December 2015 at 5:41 PM, Glacier Point said:

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by johnholmes
No idea why this chart from G P showed. I was trying to ask why someone was or seemed to be suggesting allow should eject(shudder to the phrase) into the Med?

[nick sussex]

Rather than ramble on I'll be short and to the point:

If the shortwave shown between T120 and T144hrs can eject cleanly from the troughing to the west then we might at least get another chance, if not a Scandi high then we could develop a ridge to the ne to put some pressure on the troughing to eject energy south eastwards.

If the shortwave doesn't eject cleanly then game over.

Theres no middle ground here given the window of opportunity. We've had no luck so far with these shortwaves but need some now!

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Hmm, unless IanF was referring to something like the statistical verification of NWP output and the entropy growth in error ranges I suppose....

I think the post about the Shannon entropy was in relation to the Decider weather regime forecast tool.

http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2015/13419-decider-visualising-range-possible-weather-scenarios-medium-range-and-monthly-forecast-periods.pdf

[Mucka]

I'm really not feeling a do or die scenario here although granted if we want a quick march to an Easterly then we need to build high pressure far enough west with some undercut over the period end of Dec/early Jan.

 

I am feeling we are seeing the first stages of a major turn around for this Winter, a winter of two halves and stark contrasts.

I can foresee more blocking possibilities quickly setting up in January if we fail this time around and I think the output shows we are likely to have Southerly jet in FI which bodes well for getting some deeper troughs and stronger ridges as we move through the month.

I can't say I am being completely scientific, but I just feel it in my bones that at least one special wintry spell will hit us next year.

 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Rather than ramble on I'll be short and to the point:

If the shortwave shown between T120 and T144hrs can eject cleanly from the troughing to the west then we might at least get another chance, if not a Scandi high then we could develop a ridge to the ne to put some pressure on the troughing to eject energy south eastwards.

If the shortwave doesn't eject cleanly then game over.

Theres no middle ground here given the window of opportunity. We've had no luck so far with these shortwaves but need some now!

You and your shortwaves Nick! You're the only person who mentions them! 

Edited December 21, 2015 by Paul_1978

[nick sussex]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

You and your short waves Nick! You're the only person who mentions them! 

Yes I'm rather obsessed but they do often pop up in situations where they can make a big difference to outcomes. Of course in the summer I don't really care what they do but when colds on the line I'm a lot more interested.

We shouldn't assume a cold victory if the shortwave behaves itself but at least we might get some trough disruption off that troughing and have a chance of further improvements.

 

[Polar Maritime]

No change from the GFS 12z with a cool unsettled N/W Pm flow showing into January, Bringing the chance of snowfall for some especially at elevation where there could be blizzard conditions at times in these set-ups.

[nick sussex]

The Christmas/Boxing Day weather is looking a lot more complicated especially in the north of the UK. Could be wet or could be a bit more interesting.

All eyes on the shortwave to the sw, the weaker the better. The deeper shortwave is going to be more difficult to eject eastwards cleanly and will track more ne.

For folks up north the UKMO isn't far away from being very interesting but the shortwave is a little too far to the west and north.

Edited December 21, 2015 by nick sussex

[colboy]

I don't normally comment on this forum, but what a great site for discussing the weather. 

I have been watching the global winds  on.    earth.nullschool.net  and it seems that the southwesterlys that we have been having are gradually being pushed further east by the northwesterlys. Scotland and the north look as if they will get a bit of a battering in the near future, but at least temperatures look like dropping in a few days time.

am I on the right tracks or completely wrong on the above. 

Thanks

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-MR model snow potential for Christmas Eve/Morning here.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

The ECM looks as ghastly as this mornings run, deeper shortwave ,further west, poor phasing, no ejection east of this. I hope this clarifies why I'm constantly droning on about shortwaves. You can see the big difference this makes.

The GFS/UKMO at T144hrs are similar tonight in terms of pattern and shortwave, the ECM to be renamed the Scrooge of Christmas just shot Bambi!

T168hrs update we thought Bambi was dead but there might be a weak pulse.

Crash team called! Bambi declared dead at T192hrs!

Apologies for all these film analogies, its my coping mechanism when faced with dire output!

More over the top posts from me is always correlated with poor cold potential.

Edited December 21, 2015 by nick sussex

[mb018538]

How incredibly disappointing from a few days back....the mass ensemble agreement of a large high pressure cell over the uk has been obliterated by the jetstream again. Looking like we're going to be waiting a while into the new year for anything cold.

[Mucka]

Well that was about the worse solution possible from ECM, bless.

Don't take it to heart just yet, looking at UKMO and GFS there is a bit more mileage in this yet.

 

JMA is better but not quite what we are after. Could do with a better defined Atlantic trough (deeper/sharper) and more disruption of the low.

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by Mucka