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Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

Liam J

By Liam J
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted
7 hours ago, Love Snow said:

Would this be a burns day storm re run or was that even worse? 

Would have been a Burns day storm re-run but a touch further south, the 00z has downgraded it a bit and it's moving over France with the strongest winds. 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Yup we can forget about that one. Pity need some interest.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Like I said forget that one. What is may become more interesting is where the low ends up over the weekend. Since the met office say the positioning is uncertain places may experience gusts close to 60 mph away from the present position of N,NW England and southern Scotland.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Effectively gone from this mornings run.

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chillyblast Contributor

chillyblast

Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
Posted

Can you give us a preview as to why Surrey? :)

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted

Some windy weather possible on Sunday but other than that it's looking pretty quiet for the time being.

gfs108.thumb.png.2df8ddfe2b3b498cf43d43agfs107.thumb.png.fd28fb5bc4603efef9a5913

 

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Next week looks quiet and actually fairly dry away from coastl regions where showers wintry in nature especially the more north you go.

After next week to be fair nobody has a scoobie what will happen. But I just got a feeling that the Atlantic will push back through the setup not quite right to keep it at bay. 

Then as we head towards the end of Jan hopefully we get a proper dig in of cold from the east thanks to a soil block in the Atlantic. 

With the cold, like most winters although not recently it seems it's not if it happens but when just hold tight.

Lots of diffrent factors though this winter example El Nino although not a massive understanding of what this does to the weather here there are different theories. 

I like most want a decent cold spell s true winter UK style! (no not the Atlantic onslaught one lol) 

Let's just hope 2016 deliveres the goods! 

Side note. I'm no expect just taking a guess and longer range stuff to make a feeble attempt at a guess.

I'm also down the Pub! Happy days 

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted

Back to wind, rain & flooding after the colder snap perhaps?  Not great looking charts for the flooded regions as the ground is still saturated with standing water in fields etc and rivers still running high.  

gfs123.thumb.png.e6369daaa234af9711df063gfs124.thumb.png.979cfcf3a10fd2bfdeab659

gfs125.thumb.png.35f1d339424f05da647b636gfs126.thumb.png.09025067f29b84ff591ebbd

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

UKMO and ARPEGE picking up signals for a wee squeeze on the isobars, for southern England, overnight into Tuesday.

UKMO lacking the three hourly time steps of the other but signal there at 96 hours.     UW96-21.GIF?21-17

The higher-res ARPEGE ...

arpegeeur-0-108.png?12   surface gusts arpegeuk-11-108-0.png?21-18

 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Just looking at what happened with the last predicted storm for yesterday. That certainly didn't happen. Tuesday a bit far away to get excited about but we maybe heading back into December type stormy weather and mild temps.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Some very disturbed charts being churned out on latest outputs! If correct then the Atlantic will be in overdrive to make up for the recent quieter period. At this range detail will likely change but here's some charts from the 12z ECM to illustrate my point and also Nouska has mentioned the potential above, if you like stormy volatile weather patterns then certainly some interest into next week.. The Met Office may have to dust off the storm alphabet!

ecm221.thumb.gif.2d9339de21f379131205f6becm223.thumb.gif.93346038ed77828f56a4669ecm222.thumb.gif.7a5c6718cc7b5f69030321aecm224.thumb.gif.0e242ee4334dde17631e48a

 

GEM also looking very disturbed. 

gem156.thumb.png.f01df9c7b667a9c7c20e115gem157.thumb.png.281fbd2513a3654ab3334c8gem168.thumb.png.ec3e365a05679d88cb6ee7fgem240.thumb.png.2893e912c37508e6b6b1db3gem186.thumb.png.059881378245c4ac965e72e

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

The low pressure system bringing the snow to the likes of Washington DC will makes its way to the UK by Tuesday no snow with it but some heavy rain and strong winds bringing the risk again of localised flooding certainly one to keep an eye on over the next 48 hours or so

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted (edited)

PPN quite a bit further north today compared to the NetWx-SR predictions.

nm2.thumb.png.82b086d77f8bd91011493d199arad1.thumb.PNG.c9fc284ef900aa21a6b7a65d4

The current weather system bringing blizzards to the US will deepen as it tracks across the Atlantic and be knocking on our door into Tuesday, sadly no blizzards for us! Instead some very wet and very windy conditions... Warnings have already been issued and make for very grim reading with many inches of rain potentially in areas already hit by the severe flooding in December.

UKMO 00z charts. 

ukmo29.thumb.gif.3278187f3add5cfda159e40ukmo30.thumb.gif.3dc6c616983128e92832f4a

GFS wind gusts, 60 to 70mph possible in places.

gfs245.thumb.png.fcf45c996d10b4757d1afa9gfs246.thumb.png.692ea89d3dffa8ff914bed2gfs247.thumb.png.41ed8e1e4fbac9ba54166e7

 

Warnings - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1453766400

 

 

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted (edited)

watching  cnn/fox  news  if  that storm  its a deep it is over  the pond comes our  way  things  could  get  interesting!!!

Edited by tinybill
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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

This is indeed a weird winter. I've just been working outside over here in France on our land and I've had my coat off - it must have been 15c at about 1600 in the sunshine. Totally still, gnats and other winged insects flying, birds chirping, woodpeckers tapping - and it looks like it'll stay very mild for the foreseeable future.

Our HP, though, is bad news for the UK, pushing the wind and rain right over you. I do hope there is not a repeat of the Christmas flood misery for folks...

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted
42 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

 

Our HP, though, is bad news for the UK, pushing the wind and rain right over you. I do hope there is not a repeat of the Christmas flood misery for folks...

Can you please deflate that high for us or send it to Scandinavia! Ta much :) lol... Yeah rainfall over the next week will be a big concern, hopefully there won't be a repeat of December!! 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
4 hours ago, tinybill said:

watching  cnn/fox  news  if  that storm  its a deep it is over  the pond comes our  way  things  could  get  interesting!!!

All its going to do is increase the risk of flooding again the most exposed parts could see in excess of 200mm not good

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Well the rain won't bothe rus but the winds might. Worth keeping an eye on.

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted
12 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

One thing for shure though , no snow !!

but  plenty  of rain and  wind should make things  fun!!

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