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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

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A shiny new thread to take us into the new winter season.

 

Lot's of potential in current model output to suggest that there are some turbulent times ahead as we enter the first week of December, with plenty more wind and rain on the cards. 

 

As usual when storms get officially named by the Met Office they'll be given their own separate thread as we've been doing over the last few weeks for Abigail, Barney & yesterdays storm Clodagh. 

 

Carry on the discussion! :D

 

This is how the 12z suite currently see Saturday at the moment, the ECM is the best performing model as verification stats show time and time again (and my personal favourite) So I would normally side with it's solution, but it's quite a volatile set up and 5 days away so I don't think either model has quite nailed it yet, and no clear picture from the ensembles either, Although UKMO & ECM are very similar. 

 

 

GEFSP post-9615-0-71294500-1448918208_thumb.pn UKMO post-9615-0-11423000-1448918214_thumb.gi ECM post-9615-0-46448400-1448918221_thumb.gi

 

GEM post-9615-0-30425100-1448918231_thumb.pn JMA post-9615-0-72487000-1448918240_thumb.gi

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Latest GFS not quite as wild as the previous run but at 5 days out you have to expect some varying evolutions, still very windy weather is highly likely into next weekend but how windy? That question should be answered in the coming days as models firm up.

 

Friday night into Saturday.

 

post-9615-0-99159600-1448922916_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-07864800-1448922923_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-33157400-1448922928_thumb.pn

 

 

Then round two into Saturday afternoon as a deepening area of low pressure arrives from the SW.

 

post-9615-0-82751700-1448923047_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-68451300-1448923052_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-01343300-1448923060_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-16815500-1448923092_thumb.pn

 

Details will probably change around a bit over the next few days though. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The ecm is still running this low very quickly through Scotland with gusts around 70kts in northern England.

 

post-12275-0-13078000-1448956056_thumb.p

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The last 2 years (Autumn 2013 - now) seems to have been extremely stormy. Are there any stats to suggest this period has been stormier than normal?

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did not think weekend was particularly strong here but it was enough to rip part of the greenhouse roof off.   Possible few storms lately weakened it.

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Rain warning issue for parts of Wales and the west Midlands

Issued at: 1117 on Tue 1 Dec 2015

Valid from: 0800 on Wed 2 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Thu 3 Dec 2015

Rain is expected to arrive from the west on Wednesday morning and become heavy at times, persisting overnight and into at least part of Thursday. Given saturated ground and high river levels, be aware of the potential for flooding, leading to disruption to travel, localised property flooding and danger from fast-flowing deep water.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A frontal zone is expected to move into Wales from the west early on Wednesday and become slow-moving for at least 24 hours, possibly longer. With strong winds and moist air this is likely to generate heavy rain across upland areas in particular, and given the persistent nature of the rain some large rainfall accumulations are likely. 40 to 60 mm is likely quite widely over high ground with over 80 mm in places, and perhaps in excess of 100 mm across prone areas such as Snowdonia. There is some uncertainty over the behaviour of the front on Thursday as a number of waves develop, and this means that confidence in the duration of heavy rainfall by that stage is relatively low. This warning will therefore be kept under review and updated as and when necessary.

Warning covers

Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire, Powys, Conwy, Denbighshire, Gwynedd, Wrexham, Isle of Anglesey

Shropshire

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449014400®ionName=uk

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Saturday night into Sunday details for the south LOADS of wet and windy Weather to come over this week not good :(

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Still looking wild at the end of the week and into the weekend, GFS showing gusts around 80mph+ over Ireland & the NW Friday evening onwards, very windy for many places. 

 

 

gfs323.thumb.png.ea3d93bb5d7e587737f9e61gfs324.thumb.png.107e38fc38ff1e9c8124234gfs325.thumb.png.85f70115e85ef55c3850aadgfs326.thumb.png.d55970acb9754c8d9c8127b

 

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2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Still looking wild at the end of the week and into the weekend, GFS showing gusts around 80mph in the NW Friday evening onwards, very windy for many places. 

 

 

gfs323.thumb.png.ea3d93bb5d7e587737f9e61gfs324.thumb.png.107e38fc38ff1e9c8124234gfs325.thumb.png.85f70115e85ef55c3850aadgfs326.thumb.png.d55970acb9754c8d9c8127b

 

Finally got your avatar ,looking pretty stormy ..

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5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Finally got your avatar ,looking pretty stormy ..

Yeah at last! lol

Round two possibly on Saturday afternoon from the south west, gusts 60-70mph+ in the west and through the Irish Sea, but detail is changing  around at this range so expect some further changes with the detail. 

gfs327.thumb.png.ad2f9960a591c5ab2c023a4gfs328.thumb.png.e8046fe70bbb9be0e3097bbgfs329.thumb.png.60b14ef963845bb2936754f

 

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For some reason I can't see some of the attachments that people are posting, I don't know if it has anything to do with the new look forum?... Don't get me wrong I like the new look of it, but as the old saying goes if it isn't broke then why fix it?  Is it something to do with Windows 10?

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2 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

For some reason I can't see some of the attachments that people are posting, I don't know if it has anything to do with the new look forum?... Don't get me wrong I like the new look of it, but as the old saying goes if it isn't broke then why fix it?  Is it something to do with Windows 10?

Hi. if you have any issues post them here - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84553-forum-upgrade-please-read/?page=3#comment-3294363 and they can be looked into something's will take up-to 48 hours to settle down

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Yeah Adam, there may be a few issues with the new forum and some of the features that will be ironed out over the next few days, as Paul has already highlighted. 

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I have started to see the attachments on my mobile in the last half hour.

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7 minutes ago, matty40s said:

I have started to see the attachments on my mobile in the last half hour.

Strange how you can see them on your mobile but I can't see them on my Laptop :cc_confused:

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It's a decent mobile.

:D

 

I noticed the Beeb forecast yesterday had a long line of clouds coming across the Atlantic all week, as this is being driven and twisted by the jetstream, it must be a nightmare to forecast correctly. 

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Ensembles now lending good support to the OP for a very windy if not stormy Friday evening into Saturday, some members showing an even tighter pressure gradient than the OP, Saturday is looking less clear at this stage. 

ECM also showing similar. 

ecm48.thumb.png.fa241e99d6948bc41d768810

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Still on the 12oz and looks like it could last a while.  Overnight Friday into Sunday. If it comes off it will be a very interesting weekend.

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18z very similar to the previous run perhaps a little stronger winds for Saturdays depression, very windy period from Friday evening right through into Saturday night if it's near the mark. 

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Yep looks stormy this weekend for most places. Friday afternoon for Scotland 60 to 70 mph widespread gusts with exposed parts 70 to 80 mph. For Saturday further South this time with gusts of 65 to 75 mph across Scotland, Ireland, Wales and NW parts of England.

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