Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Cheshire Freeze]

RIP any daffodils that were tempted by the warmth of December

I reckon -6 or -7 will be attainable across large parts of rural England. Scotland minus double digits.

[Weather-history]

Overnight anvils, a few wintry showers. My favourite type of time-lapse, development and passage of anvils in the sky

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Weather-history

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

Tonight's EC32 has the warm air moving through on Wednesday/

I'd wager 10 days of warmer weather before we're locking down the next cold spell within the modelling. Interesting the modelling is making more of Siberian heights once again. Remember wax and wane of blocking features until the PV is eventually fully brought down some time into Feb.

Oh and it wasn't long ago that you were saying the EC32 was suggesting mild all the way into the last week of Jan! I've never known that model to forecast anything but mild.

Edited January 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Fine.

Good good

[Polar Maritime]

And on we go 

[coldcomfort]

Just seen the BBC forecast for Sunday and sadly it franks the fact GFS now looks set to be right all along with the timing of this breakdown, despite all the other models saying something different and all the other usual suspects (experts included) trashing it virtually every 6 hours...pretty much as per. This one now looks to be an epic fail by the MO, who only 12 hours ago were calling for a sparkling weekend nationwide and now have rain and sleet across much of the northwest on Sat, a very much warmer night to follow, then widespread cloud and patchy rain/sleet for Sun. Given all at their disposal and a timeframe of only 48-72hrs, I find that very, very poor indeed.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS has modeled this the best I think, Monday is a washout, bit of undercutting on UKMO and GFS but no real cold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS has modeled this the best I think, Monday is a washout, bit of undercutting on UKMO and GFS but no real cold

But uppers below 0 with a slight continental undercut surely wouldn't be rain? I give up if it is!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, CreweCold said:

But uppers below 0 with a slight continental undercut surely wouldn't be rain? I give up if it is!

bbc gives me light snow sun and mon, models do seem to have upgraded undercut, just GFS gives a shocker washout monday

[knocker]

The ecm looks borderline as the warmer air creeps in

[knocker]

Model guidance for Alex this morning much the same and tightly knit.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Would love to hold the colder air In an get a stalling front bringing hours of snow over uk....not keen on the snow to rain or rain to heavy rain events

it will be the latter

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm anomaly not dissimilar to the GEFS and it also  has the HP becoming more influential by Sunday but during the ext period this influence begins to wane and the flow veers to westerly by T360. It has to said NOAA doesn't waver from the HP influence.

 

 

indeed, the noaa doesnt waver from a mean upper ridge, but look at the 8-14 dayer, that to me suggests a bartlett type high, in which case would be bad news for those wanting cold this winter.

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

RIP any daffodils that were tempted by the warmth of December

I reckon -6 or -7 will be attainable across large parts of rural England. Scotland minus double digits.

daffs get frosted every spring mate, they droop then pick up.

[coldcomfort]

Normal extreme straw clutching going on once again in the MOD, just can't be bothered with it tbh. Thankfully in here things are often looked at rather more realistically and the 06 again finds no trouble whatsoever all displacing the cold early next week....negative tilt, my arriss!

[mushymanrob]

i see someone is continuing to point score against gp ...

huh.... theres a reason gp has a job in meteorology and the other guy... doesnt. 

[minus86BriJ]

My two cats were kittens back in December 2010 when we had a foot and a half of snow here but after letting them out this morning it was like they saw a hard frost for the first time in their lives (crunchy grass?? wtf?).  A sad indictment of the "winters" of today.  I was a child of the 80's when hard frosts like this mornings could kick in in October.  I remember dodging spider webs made visible by frost on my way to school and having ice sliding competitions trying to impress the cute brown eye'd girls well before christmas.  Looking back I recall, probably mistakenly, that we would get at least three decent snowfalls every year and the odd serious snowstorm (thundersnow is amazing!).  There were of course the years that were mild exceptions but comparatively speaking I don't classify the winters of today as winters at all in the traditional sense.  Yes we will get cold and yes it might even snow every now and then but for me winter is no longer winter.  

[Mapantz]

16 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Yeah, but 28K likes though... gotta mean something.  Right?

 

Yep. It means that the poster says things that coldies want to hear. LOL

Re daffs, freezing weather does nothing to them. They pop up every December here, in Feb 2012 it got down to -9C and they were unaffected.

[Neiller22]

Well Iv had a good 2-3cm here in Northern Ireland  last night few a few more heavy snow showers this morn so I'm happy. But yes quite a few on mod thread were saying there is no way the gfs is right in bringing back the milder air and that it was utter garbage and as a model should be binned as its out on its own! Well who's looking silly now. Atlantic def on way back sooner than other models were getting at. It's meltdown on there. 

[March Blizzard]

Looks like the "widespread hard frost" for Saturday night/Sunday morning has been dropped...

[Deep Snow please]

Could that hurricane realistically enter the cold air and provide blizzards on an unprecedented scale? 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i see someone is continuing to point score against gp ...

huh.... theres a reason gp has a job in meteorology and the other guy... doesnt. 

Absolutely, Rob - I was a touch sceptical the other day, given that GP hadn't posted in a while in the model thread, but I'm not going to argue with his ideas!  Interestingly, Ian Fergusson suggests that Met Office modelling indicates Atlantic blocking heights with a Scandinavian/European trough as the most probable pattern for February, and Weatherweb still expect February to be the coldest month of this winter.

 

In reference to those on the model thread who claim to know what's going to happen next week, John Hammond on the lunchtime news emphasised uncertainty due to Alex and, of next week, said it would get underway with cold air, and was almost doing this regarding what will happen thereafter:

Edited January 15, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.

[summer blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Could that hurricane realistically enter the cold air and provide blizzards on an unprecedented scale? 

No. 

For one thing the uppers in hurricanes are above 10C and for anything, it would no longer have a symmetrical warm core. Outside of mountains, a fully tropical hurricane cannot produce snow.

[Deep Snow please]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

No. 

For one thing the uppers in hurricanes are above 10C and for anything, it would no longer have a symmetrical warm core. Outside of mountains, a fully tropical hurricane cannot produce snow.

Oh bugger, there goes my little pipe dream. That thing better stay in the Atlantic ocean then.

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i see someone is continuing to point score against gp ...

huh.... theres a reason gp has a job in meteorology and the other guy... doesnt. 

this is the reason I don't go in the MOD during winter..you get posters who just pop up when any cold is around and all others hang on their every word when in variably they are shown to be wrong in their outlook or model dissection..i only ever read the thoughts of those who post all year and tell it how it is..Gibby is very good if you want the best model summary IMO.

[Arctic Hare]

Just popping in for a quick moan so I can be calmer again in the regional thread, don't mind me... so far, this "cold spell" (quotes deliberate) has actually been less productive than the disaster that was last winter. Total snow lying: nil. Total snow falling: nil. Lowest max: 4.2 °C. Lowest min: -0.1 °C (ooh look, a frost!). Today's weather: cloudy with occasional rain. Absolute waste of space so far. My remaining hopes are pinned on a cold, sunny weekend with proper night frosts and no more censored-ing rain!

Yes, I know it's a fascinating model-watching period, especially with a January hurricane etc. Yes, I know FI is about three minutes away right now. Yes, I know it's only the middle of January. Yes, I know I don't live in a very snowy location anyway. Yes, I am grateful for some dry(ish) weather after weeks and weeks of rain/flooding. Yes, I know there are more important things to get wound up about.

But. But. That doesn't mean it doesn't hurt when this happens yet again.

Right... I feel better for getting that out.