Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[northwestsnow]

Just now, snowblizzard said:

I absolutely detest South Westerly's (during winter) and, for the last 12 weeks or more, every time I've looked out of my window the clouds have been coming from the South West sector!

I long for a decent spell of East North Easterly's dragging frigid air into Kent from the continent.

Dream on!

Me too SB- I love easterlies, they pretty much always produce round these parts.

Alas they are rare, and i mean rare.

[knocker]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I refer the honourable gentleman to the model thread

On a serious note we seem to have fairly decent consensus of a uk high next week,certainly from the euro's.

While im here i just want  to say i detest north westerlies.:(

 

How dare you refer me to the model thread.

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, knocker said:

How dare you refer me to the model thread.

hehe.

not seen you in there for a awhile, hope sidney is well....

[JoeShmoe]

Whilst the usual suspects bicker in the mod thread many parts of the U.K. have seen snow in the past 12 hours

[stainesbloke]

13 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Whilst the usual suspects bicker in the mod thread many parts of the U.K. have seen snow in the past 12 hours

Hehe, I bet the Met Office are rubbing their hands with anticipation if they've read the mod thread this morning...so much 'future talent' confidently calling an outcome to this cooler spell. All a bit beyond me, could go either way, I'm just happy to see a cold high being modelled. Love a bit of winter sun and if we get frost and freezing fog...bonus.

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Whilst the usual suspects bicker in the mod thread many parts of the U.K. have seen snow in the past 12 hours

Sidney is fine. Having a nap at the moment as not too good down here with some hefty rain and hail showers.

[fat chad]

How comes you ain't in the model thread anymore knocker?

[Weather-history]

23 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sidney is fine. Having a nap at the moment as not too good down here with some hefty rain and hail showers.

Metamorphosed from a grey one to a red one.....

[cornish snow]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Metamorphosed from a grey one to a red one.....

Knocker's had his red crayons out again.

Dont think sidney enjoyed it.

Edited January 14, 2016 by cornish snow

[mushymanrob]

we had no snow on the ground 2011-12 2012-13. brief transitory snow on 2008-9, 1989-90, 1988-9.

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Not sure how you get average from that Knocker.  High pressure looks slap bang over us which would deliver hard frosts by night and suppressed daytime temperatures surely? 

think milder atlantic air would eventually filter round it and over us.... maybe?

[Carl46Wrexham]

17 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Erm, you can get snow in mild winters. I can't remember a snowless winter

I can. 1997/98 was snowless for me. Most recently 2013/14 was snowless. Last winter was only saved by the Boxing Day snowfall. No lying snow since then.

[joggs]

I agree with mushymanrob.Can only see the high pulling slightly sw to leave milder flow off the Atlantic and no snow event.Apart from high ground in Scotland.Out with a whimper.

[10 Days Away]

Model Discussion Thread

 

 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

think milder atlantic air would eventually filter round it and over us.... maybe?

Indeed. This morning's ecm also has the transition about mid week with HP building in the vicinity of the UK. This continues into the ext period but is slowly eroded until by T360 the flow is WSW with a trough to the NW. But to reiterate the airmass in the resurgent HP is not a cold airmmass.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, fat chad said:

How comes you ain't in the model thread anymore knocker?

Because I tend to throw the toys back into the pram.

[sundog]

In many ways nothing has changed,we are still hoping that a ssw will save this winter and it looks like our hopes are going to still rest on that. I really hope next month delivers the goods.

[snow freak]

this countries weather is pants.  finally get a cold snap and what do we get?  yet more rain only this time colder rain.  can't win.

[pegg24]

36 minutes ago, snow freak said:

this countries weather is pants.  finally get a cold snap and what do we get?  yet more rain only this time colder rain.  can't win.

Use to think living in Northants we were the only one's not getting anything.

seem to think its not just us at the moment.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Playing Devil's Advocate for a moment, if I may, one could call winter over by next Tuesday, as it appears that a resurgent PV, Euro high and associated factors will return us to mild south-westerlies.  Given that the inhabitants of the strat thread have stopped discussing an SSW and are now arguing over terminology, and Glacier Point hasn't updated us regarding his "torpedo", which makes me wonder whether he's having to adjust his forecast, the longer-range could be set.  It would be interesting to hear from people like GP, Tamara and Recretos as to whether they think the Greenland vortex/Euro high set-up is likely to persist?

Edited January 14, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

 

Regarding my feeling that this might be as good (from a coldie's POV) as we get, I'm basing that on our Cornish woodshed friend and his anomaly charts which sem to suggest a resurgent troposheric vortex, decoupled as it apparently is at present from the stratospheric circulation, Euro high and a rerun of December, though I am heartened by the ECM temperature graph, which appears to me to show a drop-off late in the month.

Edited January 14, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[Deep Snow please]

2 hours ago, TN26 said:

Model Discussion Thread

 

 

It's a mongooseing joke in there. 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Playing Devil's Advocate for a moment, if I may, one could call winter over by next Tuesday, as it appears that a resurgent PV, Euro high and associated factors will return us to mild south-westerlies.  Given that the inhabitants of the strat thread have stopped discussing an SSW and are now arguing over terminology, and Glacier Point hasn't updated us regarding his "torpedo", which makes me wonder whether he's having to adjust his forecast, the longer-range could be set.  It would be interesting to hear from people like GP, Tamara and Recretos as to whether they think the Greenland vortex/Euro high set-up is likely to persist?

tbh i dont think thats an unreasonable suggestion.

if we are going to get a proper cold spell with deep cold, ice days, widespread snow, the incoming high will be the one to provide it - or not.  there is scope for it to hang about for a while - as the noaa charts appear to suggest (making any atlantic inroad brief). if it collapses as per the ops and we get another large trough in the mid/north atlantic then imho itll be very hard in the time left for something really cold to evolve.

however, the high might end up over scandinavia, and IF this happens then theres a good chance of a cold spell.

with the exception of 2013, if theres no hint of cold by the end of january (proper cold not ordinary high pressure like we are going to get) , then its highly unlikely (but not impossible as 2013 proves) for a deep cold spell to occur. 

nearly always, the winters of deep snowfall, have had a shorter spell by the end of jan. so if the current ops are right - yep, id suggest a snowy cold spell will be highly unlikely this winter.

Edited January 14, 2016 by mushymanrob
typo

[knocker]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Regarding my feeling that this might be as good (from a coldie's POV) as we get, I'm basing that on our Cornish woodshed friend and his anomaly charts which sem to suggest a resurgent troposheric vortex, decoupled as it apparently is at present from the stratospheric circulation, Euro high and a rerun of December, though I am heartened by the ECM temperature graph, which appears to me to show a drop-off late in the month.

Sir, if I am the person in question then to even hint that I have suggested " a rerun of December" is a monstrous calumny and eminently worthy of the other thread. Forty lashes at least.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

30 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sir, if I am the person in question then to even hint that I have suggested " a rerun of December" is a monstrous calumny and eminently worthy of the other thread. Forty lashes at least.

Apologies, Sir - merely my (probably faulty) interpretation of the outputs you have posted.  At no point have you actually suggested it.