Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Singularity]

Again ECM seems to take the low heights moving out of Svalbard and the trough over the U.S. as suddenly becoming part of one large cyclonic circulation. Seems legit...

Basically all of the models seem to be sticking with their general themes for one reason or another, accounting for GFS' wobble of course.

Sorry to quote myself but I was overly brief there as I was in a hurry to attend to something else.

Basically, it seems to me that ECM has a tendency to have areas of low heights interact in very energetic ways in the longer-term (beyond +144, say), and often it does tend to produce overly dramatic results and may be a significant contributor to the wild swings we sometimes see from one run to the next with the ECM det.; when one of these mergers of low heights is either picked up or dropped.

It's just a theory and an unverified one at that, but thought it worth posting in search of people's opinions. Thanks in advance for your responses.

 

Overall, I'm in a highly unconvinced state of mind this evening, as I can't see a decent consensus to work with. The ECM and UKMO outcomes seem equally reasonable, and GFS is not far behind once you factor in the progressive bias and adjust the displacement of the cold air back by a couple of days.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Spot on and something I don't want to see. I think 88/89 or was it 98 that saw some true horrid slug Synoptics 

1997/98 winter was pretty bad here with a Euro high - cloudy, drizzly and some fog IIRC. 

[Weather Observer]

24 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Sorry to quote myself but I was overly brief there as I was in a hurry to attend to something else.

Basically, it seems to me that ECM has a tendency to have areas of low heights interact in very energetic ways in the longer-term (beyond +144, say), and often it does tend to produce overly dramatic results and may be a significant contributor to the wild swings we sometimes see from one run to the next with the ECM det.; when one of these mergers of low heights is either picked up or dropped.

It's just a theory and an unverified one at that, but thought it worth posting in search of people's opinions. Thanks in advance for your responses.

 

Overall, I'm in a highly unconvinced state of mind this evening, as I can't see a decent consensus to work with. The ECM and UKMO outcomes seem equally reasonable, and GFS is not far behind once you factor in the progressive bias and adjust the displacement of the cold air back by a couple of days.

I have noticed this also now you mention it. I have been following the models for quite a while and feel that GFS will tend to wait just a bit longer before "going off on one". GEM is only a backstop if the other models aren't showing what I want to see, so cannot really comment on that. I can offer no explanation.

[knocker]

This evening's ecm anomaly does not agree with the GEFS on a temporary erosion of of the UK HP and continues it throughout to day fifteen albeit weakening it a tad in the latter stages and the flow veering a little. Temps by this stage would certainly be around average.

[mushymanrob]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

This evening's ecm anomaly does not agree with the GEFS on a temporary erosion of of the UK HP and continues it throughout to day fifteen albeit weakening it a tad in the latter stages and the flow veering a little. Temps by this stage would certainly be around average.

That looks like tonights noaa...  Still says no to the gfs

[knocker]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

That looks like tonights noaa...  Still says no to the gfs

Funny you should say that because I meant to post tonight's NOAA and forgot. The latter is not unlike the day 15 ecm.

[Methuselah]

Not to worry - I suspect something untoward lurks within the woodshed.

[chicken soup]

Why are people bothering weather this pathetic excuse for a cold spell will last a few more days or not...were all in it to get some snow and its clear thats not going to happen, unless you reside up a mountain, the sooner this boring period of weather is over the better...then the next goose chase can begin.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

something not matching? GFS how can it snow with these temps? GFS precip charts are useless

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

something not matching? GFS how can it snow with these temps? GFS precip charts are useless

These are maximum temperatures and you can get snow falling and settling in this set up because of dew points being at or below freezing and upper air temps of -5 to -8

[Dancerwithwings]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

something not matching? GFS how can it snow with these temps? GFS precip charts are useless

Now that's better....Not Max or Min for that matter

[snowspotter]

I cannot quite understand why over on the model thread people are putting so much energy into each run when clearly they are all over the place. There is zero continuity over the last four GFS runs which should tell you everything you need to know about taking each run as gospel. The other models are the same to be honest

Also if I had a pound every time someone said either ECM, GFS or UKMO had won , picked up the trend, got egg on face etc I would be pretty rich by now . NONE of them have got much right at all as its not a default mild pattern , same every cold spell ! 

 

[Liam J]

Hopefully the next cold spell will deliver compared to the half hearted attempt this week with temps more or less around average maybe a tad below. Plenty of rain showers on the BBC weather map just now with temps up to 4-6c ''snow mainly on the hills'' she said - Not great but after last month we shouldn't really complain, should get a few air frosts although dependant on cloud amounts with showers circulating around areas of low pressure and if the winds are off the Irish Sea then no chance here! 

[Liam J]

15 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

I cannot quite understand why over on the model thread people are putting so much energy into each run when clearly they are all over the place. There is zero continuity over the last four GFS runs which should tell you everything you need to know about taking each run as gospel. The other models are the same to be honest

Also if I had a pound every time someone said either ECM, GFS or UKMO had won , picked up the trend, got egg on face etc I would be pretty rich by now . NONE of them have got much right at all as its not a default mild pattern , same every cold spell ! 

 

A return of W/SW winds and progressively more unsettled weather has been well advertised now on a number of GFS runs into next week, although still a week away, it may be consistently wrong but I guess we'll find out soon... ECM also not far off the same page now, quite odd we have divergence at a shorter time frame but they sort of agree on next week but the ECM takes a bit longer than the GFS to remove the colder air. Let's hope for better prospects for prolonging the cold over the next few days...  

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Hopefully the next cold spell will deliver compared to the half hearted attempt this week with temps more or less around average maybe a tad below. Plenty of rain showers on the BBC weather map just now with temps up to 4-6c ''snow mainly on the hills'' she said 

A failed Easterly followed by a failed Northerly despite above average heights to the North.  It really is hard getting proper cold and snow to these islands.

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

A failed Easterly followed by a failed Northerly despite above average heights to the North.  It really is hard getting proper cold and snow to these islands.

Quite frustrating isn't it! But we can't do a thing about it apart from moan  ... Halfway through winter and I've had one air frost but that quickly melted away, hope to get one or two more this week, painful! 

[knocker]

Tonight's EC32 has the warm air moving in on Weds of next week with cold air moving east. this coincides with ridging up through the UK/Scandinavia to the Pole. This becomes just over the UK by Saturday. A quick cursory glance and then zonal by the 27th.

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

MHopefully the next cold spell will deliver compared to the half hearted attempt this week with temps more or less around average maybe a tad below. Plenty of rain showers on the BBC weather map just now with temps up to 4-6c ''snow mainly on the hills'' she said - Not great but after last month we shouldn't really complain, should get a few air frosts although dependant on cloud amounts with showers circulating around areas of low pressure and if the winds are off the Irish Sea then no chance here! 

Shouldn't complain! We have a northerly incoming in the heart of Winter and it still isn't cold enough for most to get snow, unless you live at altitude. 

4 or 5 days of it being a bit nippy then back to milder conditions. Rubbish. 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Spah1

[knocker]

Looking at the EC32 and one or two of the det, outputs including this morning's GFS I'll take a punt and say the best chance of any significant snow may well be the middle of next week when the warm air is scheduled to move in from the west over what should be an established cold layer in the lower levels.

For what it's worth the latest EPS parallel 46 day output is showing nothing significant in the woodshed with temps generally a little above average until the end of February.

[JoeShmoe]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

Tonight's EC32 has the warm air moving in on Weds of next week with cold air moving east. this coincides with ridging up through the UK/Scandinavia to the Pole. This becomes just over the UK by Saturday. A quick cursory glance and then zonal by the 27th.

I think personally that's almost certainly the most likely option - I know not everyone recognises but in the last week or two many parts of Scotland have seen unexpected snow falls so it can and does happen in the UK, just not everywhere (why so few scots post on the MOD thread and stay in the regional )

[Bristawl Si]

Not sure why everyone in the Mod thread are arguing over whether each model has "got it wrong" or "backtracked" or whatever over the coming cool spell. It's an absolutely cr@p alleged cold spell anyway with v little snow forecast, except for 'the usual suspects'.

 

[cornish snow]

15 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not sure why everyone in the Mod thread are arguing over whether each model has "got it wrong" or "backtracked" or whatever over the coming cool spell. It's an absolutely cr@p alleged cold spell anyway with v little snow forecast, except for 'the usual suspects'.

 

Can we even call it a cold spell?

Surely,this is just normal,mid-winter weather. Normal temps(6-8 for me all week) then almost certainly going milder again,next week.

Even Fergie last night on the telly,saying similar,"nothing exceptional,no deep freeze" his words,not mine.

Just shows how desperate this winter is for this "cold snap" to be talked up so much.

Show me frozen puddles,rock hard ground,nannies breaking the ice of the birds water,kids breaking the ice on the fish pond,people wearing scarves,i could go on and on,and that's for down here!!!

Cold spell,dont think so

[snowspotter]

I know where your coming from but realistically when was the last time the lizard peninsula had any sort of cold spell . I struggle over here so it must be pretty rare for where you are ! 

[Liam J]

The Met Office going for a likely end to the cold into next week, sounds similar to what the ECM is showing with a return to unsettled and milder conditions towards mid week after a period of snow. Still a week away though so time for changes yet.

Quote

more unsettled conditions are likely to spread in from the west from the mid week onwards, with temperatures returning to near normal. There is the potential for a period of snow before the onset of the milder conditions. The rest of the period should be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions. The wettest conditions occurring in the north and west. 

 

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

The Met Office going for a likely end to the cold into next week, sounds similar to what the ECM is showing with a return to unsettled and milder conditions towards mid week after a period of snow. Still a week away though so time for changes yet.

 

Thats a pretty sobering assesment but the favourite as it stands .

To add insult to injury the tv forecasts look pretty hopeless away from high ground, and i dont mean moderately high ground by the sounds of it