Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[LeeSnowFan]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 1h1 hour ago

Latest UKMO public GloSea5 update stays consistent: a (v broad!) idea of higher pressure to W/N; lower to E, Feb-Apr

what does this mean in newbies terms ?

[Timmytour]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 1h1 hour ago

Latest UKMO public GloSea5 update stays consistent: a (v broad!) idea of higher pressure to W/N; lower to E, Feb-Apr

Do we know how it fared in its forecast for Januuary?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, LeeSnowFan said:

what does this mean in newbies terms ?

High pressure tending to the west with lows tending to be to the east is roughly-equivalent to what we'll have this week.  Generally-speaking, it would tend to draw air in from the north, as the circulation around the high and low interacts rather like two gears meshing.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Do we know how it fared in its forecast for Januuary?

How can we when we're only 11 days in?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

what does this mean in newbies terms ?

Decent but ideally we would want the darker shades of red a tad further North and more Green colours to the South but bare in mind these are 3 monthly averages so if that verifies there would be bound to be a spell of potent cold at some point, now how far into the forecast period that is we don't know, obviously we want it in Feb.

[Timmytour]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

How can we when we're only 11 days in?

We'd know more or less for the first half.......

[Weather-history]

Baffling the way the clouds moved this afternoon

 

 

[knocker]

One glance at this chart was too much for Sidney

 

[PLANET THANET]

 hi there

 perhaps this has already been posted but where is GP? did he forget to let go of his torpedo when he fired it  as he seems to have gone awol for sometime along with his valuable input!!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

 hi there

 perhaps this has already been posted but where is GP? did he forget to let go of his torpedo when he fired it  as he seems to have gone awol for sometime along with his valuable input!!

You'll probably find him in the Strat thread more than the general model thread.  He seems to have the knack of only posting when he has something worthwhile to say, rather than posting unnecessarily like me.

[PLANET THANET]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You'll probably find him in the Strat thread more than the general model thread.  He seems to have the knack of only posting when he has something worthwhile to say, rather than posting unnecessarily like me.

many thanks and dont be hard on yourself, we all have an input no matter how large or small thats what makes it interesting

[The PIT]

41 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Baffling the way the clouds moved this afternoon

 

 

Err yes which was the wind blowing??? West , east, North, Northeast, Northwest West. give up.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Annoying GFS again, wants it to turm mild at weekend, UKMO though great

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

To be fair mushy neither the GEFS and ecm anomalies are going for an early breakdown although they are indicating a possible return to zonality by the end of next week. Mind given the current uncertainties that's a wee while away.

indeed, interesting times ahead, which model suite will prove most accurate?..

tbh im abit surprised by the noaa charts steadfast refusal to moderate , and move towards a middle ground. i doubt the current gfs will be right, but maybe the noaa's will also shift a bit so we will end up with a middle ground solution those charts suggest.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

indeed, interesting times ahead, which model suite will prove most accurate?..

tbh im abit surprised by the noaa charts steadfast refusal to moderate , and move towards a middle ground. i doubt the current gfs will be right, but maybe the noaa's will also shift a bit so we will end up with a middle ground solution those charts suggest.

ECM has definitely moved towards GFS, think it's going to be pants, and full agreement of mild air in place early next week

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

indeed, interesting times ahead, which model suite will prove most accurate?..

tbh im abit surprised by the noaa charts steadfast refusal to moderate , and move towards a middle ground. i doubt the current gfs will be right, but maybe the noaa's will also shift a bit so we will end up with a middle ground solution those charts suggest.

I feel with the NOAA being a seven day mean it perhaps doesn't immediately show changes that are occurring in the late stages of the run. But I in know way disagree with JH's assessment.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This is what most people (me included) would describe as a slug! at least looks dry (south) but not for key areas in the NW sadly

[heccygabber]

Not much precipitation about the next week which means it could be mostly dry and cold. Oh well

[I remember Atlantic 252]

To me, this looks like a shorts/flip flops barbie day, but not really a model expert, only know basics

 

[The PIT]

ECM now heading towards the GFS mode of thinking unfortunately. It seems in this cold snap the GFS has out done the ECM for once.

[knocker]

There is quite a brief but fairly dramatic change with the GEFS anomaly this evening before returning to the positive build up of heights over the UK. This would suggest a brief hiccup of the cold, dry spell before once more getting on track.

Edited January 11, 2016 by knocker

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Weatherweb getting a bit pessemistic regarding February.  They still think it'll be generally colder, but are now expressing doubts.  They seem convinced regarding mild SWerlies setting-in at the weekend and lasting until the end of the month:

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

I've been pessemistic about the whole winter (well from mid-December) - quite a few folks with more knowledge than me about the weather on this forum in general saying el-nino/west based QBO largely translates into a colder end to winter - we'll see but I have my doubts. This cold/colder snap coming up could be our 'winter' as it hasn't begun yet

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

To me, this looks like a shorts/flip flops barbie day, but not really a model expert, only know basics

 

Not wanting to get to technical but it is what is known in the trade as a crap chart.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

No slug there 252....true slugs grow from way out in the Azores to the baltics...horrid HP cells That just move at 0.00001 mph and fester to our South, SW an SE...lasting weeks....I can't mention the B word

I doubt that the high shown here would progress into a true B******t unless the Kara High weakens.  As I understand it, as long as it stays where it is, it prevents the cold area over Scandinavia and western Russia  from drifting eastwards, thereby maintaining cold to our NE and preventing the High from getting as far as the Baltic sea.