Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Indeed .... a head scratcher for the February CET guess, methinks!

The analogue GEFS anomalies from 00Z today.

And no resemblance whatsoever to tonight's EPS anomaly at T360 which is essentially zonal with a weakish trough Iceland and no indication of height rises to the NE at all.

[igloo]

time to get the greenhouse ready for some early growing me think by the looks of this evenings models it looks like netweather  february forecast for  record breaking temps looks odds on 

identical are they not

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still Jan that though igloo, I don't reckon mildest Feb, mild yes, unsettled with PM air at times

[JOPRO]

I  thought winter ended in December? How can it be over again!!? Just shows how foolish it can be to rite of f whole periods of weather and taking the models as given, wether they show cold or mild. 

 

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

38 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

I  thought winter ended in December? How can it be over again!!? Just shows how foolish it can be to rite of f whole periods of weather and taking the models as given, wether they show cold or mild. 

 

 

Perhaps because mild unsettled spells seem to have a disagreeable tendency to hang around for weeks on end...otherwise known as being stuck in a rut.  Funny how it is that we never get very cold weather ruts eh? Those of us who got nothing from the chilly spell that is now ending will certainly be hoping that the milder weather now approaching does not turn out to be a winter eater in terms of its longevity. The clock is ticking, and March is no guarantee of cold weather despite what happened in 2013.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies this morning are singing a familiar tune. (Perhaps worth remembering at this stage that the much denigrated anomalies indicated the current transition to milder air many moons ago). The 5-10 has the LP Aleutian Islands, the vortex N. Canada (As Mark Twain would no doubt have noted it's travels around the N. Hemisphere have been greatly exaggerated)  with ridging just to east sending a probe towards similar in western Russia with the cold trough around the Black Sea area. Thus with the surface HP in close proximity the flow from the westerly quadrant will take the unsettled weather mainly over the west and NW of the UK and temps generally above average.

As we move towards the 10-15 the downstream pattern changes somewhat with the HP relocating over the UK bringing more settled weather to the south but temps still tending to be above average.

The GFS det. output this morning is a good example of the scenario indicated above with a warm flow from the SW generally taking any systems to the NE whilst the HP to the south/south east keeps the south more settled. Temps above average. Just a chart at random (no it won't ratify) but it does illustrate some high temp anomalies over Finland and Sweden which I know will be of interest to many. The colder air is NE of the Black Sea.

[wishfulwinter]

7 months of learning blown away from the last 14 days of following the mod thread! Have no idea now if anything I thought I understood was correct or not!  Add to that the sleep deprivation, the highs and lows(!) That almost drove me to seek medical help for bipolar, I've decided to take a break from model watching and get outside to enjoy the real weather as it's happening! (Of course, I'll peep back in tonight for a few hours as always!)

[wishfulwinter]

Well the above post is not what I meant to put up. Sure I did that days ago! Oh well. Guess I'm as confused as the models! Anyhows!  If we can't have a raging easterly then I'm all for an early spring. Failing either, then "wake me up when september ends...."

[rain_shadow]

What cold and bright spell? We had 2 frosty nights: last Saturday and yesterday with 1 Sunny day, yesterday. The lowest temp last Sat was -2.5C - even my greenflies survive this in the garden. That is it. We have more sun between weather fronts then in windless weather with floating stratus. This is why I am waiting for tomorrow, when it really brightens up after the fronts - there is nothing enjoyable for me (weather wise) under the clouds or in rain in +3C.

Edited January 21, 2016 by rain_shadow

[snowblizzard]

The lack of comments on the MOD thread from the likes of SM & GP say it all really!

It looks a long haul back to anything worthwhile in terms of cold/snow.

Certainly looks no chance before the end of January and then we only have 4 weeks before March and Spring arrives.

I've often thought, Feb 6 is quite often the 'break point'. (excluding rare SSW events like March 2013) 

Edited January 21, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Essex snowman]

Yep no more cold this winter soon be Spring 

[mountain shadow]

Already back to early Spring like temperatures over here with maxes of 12 and 13 until month end.

Three days until GPs torpedo was meant to hit.

It would be nice on the 24th if he could let us know if it hit or not.

[snowblizzard]

We've had a couple of really cold frosty nights over here in Kent, clear skies with not a breath of wind, some places down to -8c Tues/Weds night and -4c Weds/Thurs night.

That's probably the coldest temperatures we've seen here for almost 3 years. 

Edited January 21, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Peejayem]

The words 'potential', 'building blocks' and 'a few tweaks' have been the most overly-used words on the MOD thread this winter

[knocker]

The torpedo has just arrived and set fire to the woodshed as if it wasn't warm enough this morning

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

RIP winter 2015/16. 

[coldcomfort]

Good one Knocks....

Well the overnight runs if correct pretty much kill off any hope of cold before months end, so now we turn to Feb and the first thing to be thankful for is there are 29 days of it this year

Whilst none of us can be sure what Feb will deliver the MOD is a good place for at least gauging the mood/expectation, not just by the posts in there, but also by the number of members watching/posting. Currently the number is pretty few by comparison to recent days, but perhaps most telling of the mood is a post made 1/2hr ago that states 'GP said a few days ago anyone thinking a mild shot early Feb might be in for a shock'...the 1 like so far for that post pretty much says it all imo. 

[Frank Trough]

8 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Good one Knocks....

Well the overnight runs if correct pretty much kill off any hope of cold before months end, so now we turn to Feb and the first thing to be thankful for is there are 29 days of it this year

Whilst none of us can be sure what Feb will deliver the MOD is a good place for at least gauging the mood/expectation, not just by the posts in there, but also by the number of members watching/posting. Currently the number is pretty few by comparison to recent days, but perhaps most telling of the mood is a post made 1/2hr ago that states 'GP said a few days ago anyone thinking a mild shot early Feb might be in for a shock'...the 1 like so far for that post pretty much says it all imo. 

it is disappointing really.  I've absolutely loved the last couple of days - hard frosts, beautiful crisp, clear sunny days, stunning fiery sunsets...now back to the same old bilge water we had before Christmas. Given the excitement initially generated of "tanking NAOs" and "shredded vortexes" etc it was a pretty run of the mill cold snap. Just shows you how far we've fallen in recent winters!

No point in February if it's going to be grey, mild dirge. Roll on spring....and the inevitable below average, wet and windy second half of April/all of May.

 

[coldcomfort]

26 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

it is disappointing really.  I've absolutely loved the last couple of days - hard frosts, beautiful crisp, clear sunny days, stunning fiery sunsets...now back to the same old bilge water we had before Christmas. Given the excitement initially generated of "tanking NAOs" and "shredded vortexes" etc it was a pretty run of the mill cold snap. Just shows you how far we've fallen in recent winters!

No point in February if it's going to be grey, mild dirge. Roll on spring....and the inevitable below average, wet and windy second half of April/all of May.

 

Very much so...the spell that initially promised so much actually delivered very little, though anything was welcomed and the fact it emerged pretty much out of the blue has to at least give some encouragement going into Feb. Personally I'm a fan of first half winter cold, when the long nights give us a good chance of seeing some bitter weather, I find come Feb the much longer days mean the synoptics have to be that much better again to deliver... plus once it's light until almost 6pm you get the feel of Spring if it's sunny, almost regardless of the temperature.  Hey ho, there's always winter 16/17 to look forward too

Edited January 21, 2016 by coldcomfort

[knocker]

The ecm 6-10 anomaly this morning is much the same as the GEFS so prognosis also similar. The 10-15 doesn't suggest any imminent change.

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

RIP winter 2015/16. 

And with Global Warming predicted to add more heat into the worlds atmosphere during 2016 you have to ask, will we ever see proper winter again in the UK?

It was rare enough without Global Warming!

Edited January 21, 2016 by snowblizzard

[knocker]

GW doesn't exclude snow events and very cold periods and in fact it can be argued that some more extreme events may occur.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

RIP winter 2015/16. 

LOL what winter?

[Essex snowman]

So much hoe about El Niño giving us a cold winter it's been cra? And strat Warming keeps getting put back waste of time come on knocker put a pic up off the daffs as I've missed them fella roll on Spring 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

So much hoe about El Niño giving us a cold winter it's been cra? And strat Warming keeps getting put back waste of time come on knocker put a pic up off the daffs as I've missed them fella roll on Spring 

Yeah I was really looking forward to winter but it's now late Jan and I'm still waiting for it to start! Nobody can say to me that lame excuse for a cold spell has made any difference to my view that this winter is an absolute bloody joke and the outlook is mild again...as you say, roll on spring!!