Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Biggin]

The sytem in the SW atm has become almost stationary as it comes up against the block, not often you see that. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Edit just seen the above posters name.... Coincidence ?? I think not.

[rain_shadow]

11 minutes ago, Biggin said:

The sytem in the SW atm has become almost stationary as it comes up against the block, not often you see that. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Edit just seen the above posters name.... Coincidence ?? I think not.

Which means thick cloud for us today - again. 

[mushymanrob]

hmm..... its hard to see where GP's nw ridge/ne trough is coming from, this chart stretches well into the timeframe that he suggested .

 

[coldcomfort]

Well the GFS is now starting to churn out the next lot of post T+192hr eye candy and the cold chase is off and running once again in the MOD. We've already seen the first 1947 comment, standing by for more of those in the thread - no doubt liberally peppered with some 63 and 10 stuff, as per. This last cold spell looked significant 7 or 8 days prior and to be fair it eventually delivered at least something, but it really didn't come close to matching the potential shown...perhaps this next one will, perhaps it might even upgrade as time goes on, surely there has to be a break in the almost perpetual cycle of downgrades at some point...fingers x'ed!

 

 

 

 

[MP-R]

Given the complete failure of this last 'cold spell', every eye candy or positive run will be taken with a ship load of salt by me!

[Yarmy]

54 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

hmm..... its hard to see where GP's nw ridge/ne trough is coming from, this chart stretches well into the timeframe that he suggested .

 

Funnily enough, that has just appeared on the 6z:

 

Of course, a single run of a single model at T204 is almost meaningless, but it will be interesting to see what the GEFS panel looks like at the same time.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Yarmy

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

hmm..... its hard to see where GP's nw ridge/ne trough is coming from, this chart stretches well into the timeframe that he suggested .

 

Indeed Rob, this must surely be the likely situation through February.  All I'd like to see is for the high to be slightly further north/east in order to deflect the worst of the heavy rain away from those areas which were affected so badly in December.

[Yarmy]

25 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Indeed Rob, this must surely be the likely situation through February.  All I'd like to see is for the high to be slightly further north/east in order to deflect the worst of the heavy rain away from those areas which were affected so badly in December.

It only goes out to the 31st January: why would it be the likely situation for the whole of February? I'd be surprised if the +ve height anomaly didn't shift W into the Atlantic on the next update anyway, purely based on the last couple of GFS/GEFS runs.

[alexisj9]

Everyone seems to be acting like this cold spell is over, just gone midday here, been nice and sunny all day, temp 1.7. I'm not sure about the Friday break down either, the block is strong, the rain down in the sw not only stalled but also disintegrated quite a lot too. May be no snow about but it's going to be cold for a while yet.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Funnily enough, that has just appeared on the 6z:

 

Of course, a single run of a single model at T204 is almost meaningless, but it will be interesting to see what the GEFS panel looks like at the same time.

yep a single run, but johns research suggests the noaa are around 70% accurate for their time period, so unless the noaa 500mb charts suggest it, ill not be expecting it ..

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

It only goes out to the 31st January: why would it be the likely situation for the whole of February? I'd be surprised if the +ve height anomaly didn't shift W into the Atlantic on the next update anyway, purely based on the last couple of GFS/GEFS runs.

think its all about probabilities, if theres a large trough in the mid north atlantic taking up residence as expected, id have thought its unlikely to be a brief affair and the noaa 500 mb charts support this.  these synoptic patterns usually last for some time - so writing off february isnt such an outlandish thought.

[Yarmy]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep a single run, but johns research suggests the noaa are around 70% accurate for their time period, so unless the noaa 500mb charts suggest it, ill not be expecting it ..

think its all about probabilities, if theres a large trough in the mid north atlantic taking up residence as expected, id have thought its unlikely to be a brief affair and the noaa 500 mb charts support this.  these synoptic patterns usually last for some time - so writing off february isnt such an outlandish thought.

Yes, and I trust JH's method. One thing I hadn't realised about the prognostic charts is that they are automated at the weekend:

Quote

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 300 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

I wonder if JH has any stats regarding the relative performance of the manual vs automatic forecasts? 

[knocker]

According to the latest GEFS and ecm anomalies there is no sign of any cold weather in the near future with the surface high setting up very adjacent to the UK. With the trough floating about Mid Atlantic the upper flow will in all probability remain in the W/SW quadrant with temps around average. This applies to the ext ecm as well (not shown). The milder air already into the south west as can easily be seen by the Camborne ascent moving east during the week. Nothing in the latest det. outputs would suggest a different scenario. Have to retrieve the barby from the woodshed shortly at this rate.

Did check with Sidney this morning and he was quite complacent chumping on the nuts I gave him and no sign of storage fever.

And a recent quote by MV

Another classic "El Nino" type pattern perking up in the med-range, driven by the strong N. Pac trough and +NAO.

Edited January 18, 2016 by knocker

[ChrisWSM]

In my area (Bristol) I don’t think we have had lying snow for at least 4 years, even frosts are far and few between so Winter is a word widely used but rarely seen in its true form in the area....all I want is to sledge once down the hill in the park....

 

 

[jethro]

33 minutes ago, ChrisWSM said:

In my area (Bristol) I don’t think we have had lying snow for at least 4 years, even frosts are far and few between so Winter is a word widely used but rarely seen in its true form in the area....all I want is to sledge once down the hill in the park....

 

 

Here in the Mendips we've had an inch or so most winters, including the last four - none so far this year though. Three years ago today was the last decent fall I can remember, here's a pic of it. From memory and working on the 18years I've lived here, I think we tend to do better for snow fall as winter wears on, early season or even mid season rarely amounts to much - February seems to be the best month.

[Mapantz]

16 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

I was rather optimistic about this cold spell a few weeks ago, and for Northern England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of the Midlands, this cold spell has been pretty good. We've seen lying snow and we've struggled to get above freezing. It's certainly not a bad cold spell if you can achieve ice days in the UK.

The signals are their again in the models in the mid/longer term for another cold spell, with heights building to the East. My take on it looking at the models is that the Atlantic will break through by the end of this week/next week temporarily before we return to cold temperatures as we get a East/SE flow during the last week of January and into February.

 

It was colder this time last year for many. And we're already in an E/SE flow.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

 

think its all about probabilities, if theres a large trough in the mid north atlantic taking up residence as expected, id have thought its unlikely to be a brief affair and the noaa 500 mb charts support this.  these synoptic patterns usually last for some time - so writing off february isnt such an outlandish thought.

Thanks Rob - that was the point I was trying to make.  I suspect that pattern may well persist.

[Weather-history]

Back to the drab normality

 

 

[John88B]

2 hours ago, ChrisWSM said:

In my area (Bristol) I don’t think we have had lying snow for at least 4 years, even frosts are far and few between so Winter is a word widely used but rarely seen in its true form in the area....all I want is to sledge once down the hill in the park....

 

 

The last few years around Bristol haven't been great snow wise but we had 16cm fall in Patchway, North Bristol this time 3 years ago and a couple of other dustings. I think and hope you'll have plenty of opportunities to get that sledge out in the coming years.

Edited January 18, 2016 by John88B

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Cold ramping on the Mod thread has been halted by the appearance of a Bartlett high on the 12z ECM which would possibly finish-off winter with a return of exceptional mild, and possibly quite unsettled to the north.

[Bristawl Si]

A boring HP meandering around the UK. Boring but at least settled and if nowt snowy on the horizon i'd rather the HP be positioned so as to draw in mild south westerlies than cold.

[northwestsnow]

44 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Cold ramping on the Mod thread has been halted by the appearance of a Bartlett high on the 12z ECM which would possibly finish-off winter with a return of exceptional mild, and possibly quite unsettled to the north.

Finish off winter?

LOL.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Finish off winter?

LOL.

Could do - these set-ups can linger for a fair while.  I'm not saying it will, but it's a possibility, and I suspect it might happen that way.

[pegg24]

There is a link on Facebook saying Saudi Arabia got snow at the weekend pictures as well. I know people say our problem is the jet stream and the fact we an island etc but Saudi Arabia I did laugh they got the same amount of snow if not more than some people on here. 

[mushymanrob]

7 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

yep a single run, but johns research suggests the noaa are around 70% accurate for their time period, so unless the noaa 500mb charts suggest it, ill not be expecting it ..

think its all about probabilities, if theres a large trough in the mid north atlantic taking up residence as expected, id have thought its unlikely to be a brief affairthe chancesoaa 500 mb charts support this.   these synoptic patterns usually last for some time - so writing off february isnt such an outlandish thought.

Ok....  Glad i said IF....  Because its not now looking like any mid north atlantic trough will develop in the way it was previously predicted according to todays noaa anomaly charts.  Cant post them,  im on tablet,  but they now suggest this cold high will not be going anywhere fast,  and the chances of a scandinavia block.....  Goodnews if your wanting cold weather as thechances have taken a significant shift towards something cold. 

[shotski]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Ok....  Glad i said IF....  Because its not now looking like any mid north atlantic trough will develop in the way it was previously predicted according to todays noaa anomaly charts.  Cant post them,  im on tablet,  but they now suggest this cold high will not be going anywhere fast,  and the chances of a scandinavia block.....  Goodnews if your wanting cold weather as thechances have taken a significant shift towards something cold. 

Here you go