Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Absolutely, Rob - I was a touch sceptical the other day, given that GP hadn't posted in a while in the model thread, but I'm not going to argue with his ideas!

hi

i believe gp cannot always post here as his commitments to his work and time constraints dont allow it .
 

gp isnt god, he gets it wrong, he will be the first to admit that as hes not out to court popularity or have his ego massaged. he is genuinely interested in studying meteorology  , and has a (unbiased - lol) track record second to none when it comes to trying to interpret the many factors the longer range weather probability. disagreeing with someones analysis is all well and good, but the sneering undertone stinks.

[mushymanrob]

6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

this is the reason I don't go in the MOD during winter..you get posters who just pop up when any cold is around and all others hang on their every word when in variably they are shown to be wrong in their outlook or model dissection..i only ever read the thoughts of those who post all year and tell it how it is..Gibby is very good if you want the best model summary IMO.

lol... indeed, it makes it hard to get or be part of a level headed discussion..
 

agreed re gibby, if you want an informed, unbiased, realistic view on what is likely to occur, view gibbys post, he nails it every day. (obviously there are others too)

 

anyway - if todays cold is anything to go by, it doesnt bode well for the rest of winter. the sun was warm! (out of the breeze obvs). if this is the worst cold this winter can muster - its a poor do. (for real cold).

Edited January 15, 2016 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

great post from tamara , worth checking out!

i see a case being made for snow on monday, but tbh i think its ramping. the uppers for monday as a system comes in are imho too high. we rarely get much snow from incoming westerly buffeting up against cold, nothing that lasts anyway (a few hours of wet snow before it turns to rain is common enough i guess) .
of course if we get an inversion we might get some - but that usually occurrs when a more rapid attack from the west comes in (doesnt it?) . the cold starts going on sunday in the west, so with the arrival of the system on monday id have thought we would also import less cold surface air too..

but if the piper has called this right and we do get a dumping - ill doff my hat to him!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

lol... indeed, it makes it hard to get or be part of a level headed discussion..
 

agreed re gibby, if you want an informed, unbiased, realistic view on what is likely to occur, view gibbys post, he nails it every day. (obviously there are others too)

 

I have a (fairly short) list of Mod thread commenters I trust - Gibby is one of them.

Edited January 15, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Deep Snow please]

3 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

Just popping in for a quick moan so I can be calmer again in the regional thread, don't mind me... so far, this "cold spell" (quotes deliberate) has actually been less productive than the disaster that was last winter. Total snow lying: nil. Total snow falling: nil. Lowest max: 4.2 °C. Lowest min: -0.1 °C (ooh look, a frost!). Today's weather: cloudy with occasional rain. Absolute waste of space so far. My remaining hopes are pinned on a cold, sunny weekend with proper night frosts and no more censored-ing rain!

Yes, I know it's a fascinating model-watching period, especially with a January hurricane etc. Yes, I know FI is about three minutes away right now. Yes, I know it's only the middle of January. Yes, I know I don't live in a very snowy location anyway. Yes, I am grateful for some dry(ish) weather after weeks and weeks of rain/flooding. Yes, I know there are more important things to get wound up about.

But. But. That doesn't mean it doesn't hurt when this happens yet again.

Right... I feel better for getting that out.

Move up north or quit moaning.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Move up north or quit moaning.

But its a thread for moaning

[Carl46Wrexham]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Move up north or quit moaning.

Its the moaning thread...its allowed. And what he's said goes for me as well. This "cold spell" is pathetic. Over half an inch of RAIN today...Just over an inch of RAIN 3 days ago...no wonder there are massive puddles and saturated waterlogged muddy fields everywhere I look.

Spring cant come soon enough.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Its the moaning thread...its allowed. And what he's said goes for me as well. This "cold spell" is pathetic. Over half an inch of RAIN today...Just over an inch of RAIN 3 days ago...no wonder there are massive puddles and saturated waterlogged muddy fields everywhere I look.

Spring cant come soon enough.

it is pathetic for mid January agree, if it was 90's or earlier everyone decent snow, last night clear skies, minimum just -0.5C, think nowadays January is the new November

[Deep Snow please]

If you're going to live in the south on lowland areas then you really shouldn't expect anything from normal seasonal weather like what has been predicted for the past week. If you were sat in a little dwelling on the top of Cater Bar and it was still raining I'd have sympathy for you

[78/79]

Reasonably  cold ,crisp sunny days and frosty nights, does me for now. Still plenty of time for something more potent further along the line.

Got to be better than the  s...it  December served up.

[SLAMMER]

anyone that says the weather they are getting is pathetic is a mystery to me.  You can't control the weather.  You never will be able to control the weather.  You can go to other places that have better/worse weather.  That is all you can do.  Using words like pathetic is pathetic and people should concentrate on things they can effect like what your having for tea.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Its the moaning thread...its allowed. And what he's said goes for me as well. This "cold spell" is pathetic. Over half an inch of RAIN today...Just over an inch of RAIN 3 days ago...no wonder there are massive puddles and saturated waterlogged muddy fields everywhere I look.

Spring cant come soon enough.

With a transition to an E QBO and waning of El Nino coinciding I wouldn't necessarily go wishing for the more summer like months to come 

Could be canoeing in our own back yards come July....

[Deep Snow please]

14 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I'll be perfectly honest, even I would argue that this is a bit of a half-hearted attempt at a cold spell. The maximum here today was 4C, which is 2C lower than average January max for my area. I could just imagine the summer equivilant, where we saw a 23C max, compared with the average of 21C. It would be pleasant enough, but hardly a "warm spell".

This weekend and into early next week looks like being a bit colder though, with the possibility of some snow on Saturday night, so maybe not all is lost for the coldies yet.

Don't live in the north west then.

If you like cold weather you've got Scotland, Cumbria, York, Durham and Northumberland that guarantee at least one decent snow event a winter. Move there or quit your bullsuper duper.

[The PIT]

I'm just thinking how over rated this cold spell is. Temps from low 3c to mid 5c hasn't provided any air frosts as yet and we get a severe cold warning. It's one of the least notable cold spells I can remember and certainly will be forgotten in a few weeks time.  I dread to think what will happen if we get a cold spell where the max temps are below zero and night time temps -5c to -9c generally. Air raid sirens going off at sun set and the all clear in the morning.  Curfews and rationing?????

[Thundery wintry showers]

Most of the Arctic has been 10 to 15C warmer than the long-term average since Storm Frank pumped exceptional warmth up as far as the North Pole at the end of December.  Combined with the high sea surface temperatures around the UK after the record-breaking warm and wet December, it's not surprising really that this relatively cold snap is proving to be somewhat tame.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[Carl46Wrexham]

21 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Don't live in the north west then.

If you like cold weather you've got Scotland, Cumbria, York, Durham and Northumberland that guarantee at least one decent snow event a winter. Move there or quit your bullsuper duper.

If you don't like reading moaning posts then why are you reading a thread which amongst other things is for moaning posts? Or are you just being deliberately obnoxious?

Dont bother responding - you're on ignore now.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

If you don't like reading moaning posts then why are you reading a thread which amongst other things is for moaning posts? Or are you just being deliberately obnoxious?

I had a member like that called cheese, seemed to get upset at posts, cheese I think left now, probably for his own sanity, last date seen 3 Jan, was on everyday before the 2 posts on new years day

[snowblizzard]

Atmospheric conditions & weather patterns that guarantee to deliver extreme cold and heavy powder snow are so rare across the UK!

To be honest, I'm not really interested in daytime maximums of 3-6c or even frontal snow to rain events.

I absolutely hate slush!

Once again, the general pattern this winter (although meteorologically fascinating) looks very unlikely to deliver what I'm desperate to experience.

But, I've still got this sneaking feeling that February could provide a massive surprise!

Let's hope so.

Edited January 15, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Mokidugway]

Tbh ,thunderbolt was just saying this is a fairly morribund cold snap and as thundery wintery showers says conditions in the northern hemisphere aren't ripe for deep cold  so no need for anyone to move

 

[Arctic Hare]

1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

Move up north or quit moaning.

Gosh, I'd never thought of that. I shall immediately start searching for a house in Braemar.

More seriously (though not very seriously as this is the moaning-and-such thread) -- I'm not moaning that this winter isn't as good as it would be in the northern hills. That would be silly. I'm moaning that's it's not as good as it should be here in Bewdley. Two air frosts by mid-January, neither below -1 °C, is pathetic even for here.

[ciel]

For heaven's sake, why should one moaning post on a moaning thread generate such a reaction? 

 Folk who make these negative responses should reflect on how they are viewed by the many on here who subscribe to and  access the site to learn and maybe, yes, have some banter, but not to be shot down at every turn.

Edited January 15, 2016 by ciel

[phil nw.]

Come on folks let,s not fall out over the weather.

Yes it is a thread for moaning/banter about the weather etc. it,s not for moaning about other members.

Thank you.

 

[cornish snow]

2 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I don't even like cold weather anyway, so it doesn't really make much of a difference to me. I'd move to somewhere where winter was almost non-existent if I could.

My point is, from a statistical point of view, a 4C maximum in January, compared with a 6C average is hardly a "cold spell," which ever way you look at it. Yes the next few days do look colder so that would push this spell into "cold spell" territory by the start of next week. However, one single day that has been within 2C of the average is hardly a notable day temperature-wise, which anyone can objectively agree with.

Move down here then

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Most of the Arctic has been 10 to 15C warmer than the long-term average since Storm Frank pumped exceptional warmth up as far as the North Pole at the end of December.  Combined with the high sea surface temperatures around the UK after the record-breaking warm and wet December, it's not surprising really that this relatively cold snap is proving to be somewhat tame.

Synoptically though if you got proper blocking highs then the SST's would blast the floodgates open due to steeper vertical temperature gradient surely, you want to pump as much warm air as possible poleward in my book as it surely promotes wave breaking as well?

[summer blizzard]

The day 5 onward outlook really is a case of 'if only it were x'. Just imagine the 18z replicated in March.