Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Jason H]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Leaving aside any possible repercussions from 'the low' for the moment the anomalies this morning do have an upper air structure in place that would facilitate a cold snap from Weds to around Saturday. By then the adjustments to the alignment and strength of the Greenland HP and the trough to the east are under way and the flow over the UK is backing NW later becoming westerly.

Thanks for that Knocker. A nice short spell of colder weather based on those charts. Drier as well, which is most needed!

[feb1991blizzard]

The ensembles (GFS) have gone much crapper in the mid 250s. yes i agree someone will see snow but the chance of a proper belting is diminishing all the time, just for this cold spell i must add, I'm not writing winter off but thing we are going to need a significant strat warming to achieve this.

[Nailed-on Nigel]

That T120 chart from the 06 GFS has a real look of the 13th of January 2006 about it.

[snow freak]

20 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I hate to say this, but I have little faith in the long-range, global pattern prognostications of either Stewart or Tamara, well-intentioned though they are.

basically long term forecasting is guess work and even the most avid forecaster cannot predict what the weather will do further than even 5 days in advance so pretty much a pointless task for anyone to undertake.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, snow freak said:

the models are absolute rubbish and a total waste of time.  if they practically all agreed yesterday on the cold spell and have now flipped back then what is the point.  And also why even bother to comment on models more than 5 days ahead when you might as well toss a coin as they are impossible to predict anything more than 5 days at the very most.  I for one will not be following the model thread from now on.  Been let down far too many times now.  I would rather just take the weather as it comes.

Thank the Lord! Some peoples childish histrionics are quite amusing; but it's the same old story every year when a few cold charts appear suddenly and then downgrade to something more realistic. Tantrums, toy throwing, etc etc. 

I would have thought that a drier slot in the weather would be welcomed by most people? It will be colder and there's still a chance of snow (and a lot of model uncertainty), nothing to get overly despondent about just yet.

[Mokidugway]

Models , computer generated algorithms of course they're not real...

 

[Steve C]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Thank the Lord! Some peoples childish histrionics are quite amusing; but it's the same old story every year when a few cold charts appear suddenly and then downgrade to something more realistic. Tantrums, toy throwing, etc etc. 

I would have thought that a drier slot in the weather would be welcomed by most people? It will be colder and there's still a chance of snow (and a lot of model uncertainty), nothing to get overly despondent about just yet.

What slightly worries me is that low pressure might continue to locate very close to us (cold rain for most) after a short drier blip. Hoping it doesn't happen though.

[stainesbloke]

4 minutes ago, Steve C said:

What slightly worries me is that low pressure might continue to locate very close to us (cold rain for most) after a short drier blip. Hoping it doesn't happen though.

Absolutely Steve, that'd be a rubbish outcome but quite plausible unfortunately. Am desperately hoping for some crisp, sunny and dry weather for a couple of weeks, as I suspect are many others. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by stainesbloke

[78/79]

Some cold dry frosty days will  do me just fine, got a couple of bags of coal and a full wood store  bring it on.

[cobbett]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Absolutely.  From now on the only thing I'm paying any attention-to is the Met Office forecast (longer-range one on their website).

Not sure why people ar banging on about how great the METO are in these long range forecasts - they just sit on the fence until any pattern change is staring them in the face and they have no option.

This forum is not about forecasts but model discussion so its up to you as how you interpret the data

Anyway post Fergies latest tweets he's now suggesting that the cold may linger awhile longer now but bet you won't see that on the latest METO update !

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

8 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Not sure why people ar banging on about how great the METO are in these long range forecasts - they just sit on the fence until any pattern change is staring them in the face and they have no option.

This forum is not about forecasts but model discussion so its up to you as how you interpret the data

Anyway post Fergies latest tweets he's now suggesting that the cold may linger awhile longer now but bet you won't see that on the latest METO update !

Incorrect.  What the Met Office longer range forecasts are doing is consistently disregarding the excessively cold outputs of the inferior freely-available models and therefore correctly describing the broad trends past +140 or so.

Re:  Ian Fergusson, I've just read his Tweets and he's saying it's going to get a bit colder next week.  Beyond that, there's uncertainty regarding how long it'll last.  Sounds reasonable to me, but he seems to doubt that it'll last that long.

Edited January 8, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[joggs]

1 hour ago, Steve C said:

I'm looking forward to the next Tamara or Glacier Point posting for some longer term perspective therapy.  Shorter term is doing my head in.

I'm also unsure as to whether I've made myself look a proper mug in making a weather related posting on Facebook a couple of days ago...

Totally agree with all you say re Tamara n Gp.And only a snowy breakdown can save us face on fb.lol

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I hate to say this, but I have little faith in the long-range, global pattern prognostications of either Stewart or Tamara, well-intentioned though they are.

Medium to long range forecasting is no doubt a very difficult task...I can over the last year or so (not naming any names) remember posts giving rough predictions which generally have just not come off, GP had a good record on winter seasonal forecasts on this site - I remember 2012/13 being a very accurate one. As you say as well intentioned/informed and knowledgeable as some posts of certain members are that doesn't mean they'll be anywhere near the money.

Still some mileage in this latest saga...and the models are struggling but latest runs don't look promising when 2 days ago they looked completely the opposite, not that we haven't been here before.

[knocker]

21 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Not sure why people ar banging on about how great the METO are in these long range forecasts - they just sit on the fence until any pattern change is staring them in the face and they have no option.

This forum is not about forecasts but model discussion so its up to you as how you interpret the data

Anyway post Fergies latest tweets he's now suggesting that the cold may linger awhile longer now but bet you won't see that on the latest METO update !

Absolute nonsense.

[winterof79]

Those using any of these phrases in posts should receive life bans immediately

"pulled dragged kicking and screaming" they are not Neanderthals just Computers.

"come on board" it is not an f in ship

"its game over" WTF

"close but no cigar" no-one handed cigars out in 2010

BONKERS.....

 

 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Absolute nonsense.

Even I I didn't want to be that dismissive!

Back O/T, what's your view on the increasing hights over Spain late in the GFS?  Though I'm trying hard to force myself into being a mild-lover, I can't find much enthusias,m for more flooding in the norh-west.

Edited January 8, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Saw this on the 06Z and thinking shorts and barbies out, 6Z even less cold than last nights 18Z and todays 00Z, I am beginning to think this next week is just a temporary break with average to slightly below average temps in the south, before mild returns weekend of 16th/17th

[cobbett]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Absolute nonsense.

Lol - well if you find these longe rangers useful then thats up to you. Most of the time it'll be right but thats not difficult as they cover virtually every base on each forecast. Suggest you check the initial long range forecast for next week - vague or what and next to useless IMHO !

fergie mentioned sometime  that they were deemed as something that  'had to be produced' for the general public but no great store was made in the production of them.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Lol - well if you find these longe rangers useful then thats up to you. Most of the time it'll be right but thats not difficult as they cover virtually every base on each forecast. Suggest you check the initial long range forecast for next week - vague or what and next to useless IMHO !

fergie mentioned sometime  that they were deemed as something that  'had to be produced' for the general public but no great store was made in the production of them.

They cannot be specific as not even the EC32 or GLOSEA5 can provide specifics 3 weeks out.  At times of higher Shannon Entropy (i.e. the present), they have to hedge their bets more.  Anyway, I've gone O/T which I hate, so Mods please feel free to delete this.

Edited January 8, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Even I I didn't want to be that dismissive!

Back O/T, what's your view on the increasing hights over Spain late in the GFS?  Though I'm trying hard to force myself into being a mild-lover, I can't find much enthusias,m for more flooding in the norh-west.

I haven't looked at the 06z GFS so I'm afraid I don't have an opinion but the ext ecm anomaly was suggesting slight ridging over Spain that would help back the flow over the UK even further. A lot of water to flow under the bridge before then though.

[Daniel*]

Currently FI is around T+96 mark yet folk are looking at day 7/8/9/10? Quite petty stuff. The 12z will dictate what way the pendulum swings, I cannot get over how resolute UKMO is.

[Deep Snow please]

15 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Currently FI is around T+96 mark yet folk are looking at day 7/8/9/10? Quite petty stuff. The 12z will dictate what way the pendulum swings, I cannot get over how resolute UKMO is.

Good to see a user with his feet firmly on the ground. I think those charts basically confirm the cold snap of Monday-Wednesday as guaranteed but the key question for me is what happens next.

[kag]

I'm quite happy, it is snowing heavily, huge flakes, countryside turning white. I know it's not going to last but I'm making the most of every second . Beautiful .

 

[Lake District Blizzards]

constant downgrades by bbc for sunday / monday

gone from snow and a low of -2c to rain and a low of 2c

a low of 2c is above average for here.

rapidly turning into a none event 

[JoeShmoe]

You knew that as soon as Rao and Madden put coldest weather in 500 years on the front of the express this was going to t#%s up :-)