Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[sparky71a]

3 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I see that people are once again getting carried away and becoming despondent with one model run and over-analysing every "out of place" pixel.

Will they never learn?

No they won't, but that's the difference between model watchers,and people who study model evolutions such as Tamara,this cold event is happening the process is underway, how it happens,its intensity will become clear in time,very much the way of posters to slit wrists rather than allow themselves to feel bullish. 

[Chris K]

[knocker]

Well you can never say the GFS isn't interesting. On this evening's run it has developed a low in the northerly circulation of the tropical cyclone that has developed to the east of the Bahamas and has tracked it north then north east to be west of Ireland by Friday of next week

No way in the world that's going to play out.

Edited January 7, 2016 by knocker

[Long haul to mild]

Don't go to the model thread folks, it's ugly stuff and the razorblades are out. Apparently the cold spell is not going to happen because the always 100% spot on 18z GFS pub run says it isn't.  

[Love Snow]

I really wish the Model thread was a locked topic and just left to Regular posters in there maybe make it for elite members just to post! BECAUSE IT JUST GET RUINED BY IDIOTS WHO POST ONCE IN A BLUE MOON ! I would never post in the thread it's a great read but always ruined during a upcoming cold spell 

[knocker]

And here's the little blighter mentioned above by the 16th

[feb1991blizzard]

7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Quite correct, Chris; and added to that, in those far-off days of yore, purveyors of poo (like the Daily Fail and Daily Excrement) has readerships that were massive compared with those of today. Also, we had no Internet to help us sort the wheat from the chaff?

And what about your cronies at the Guardian with their super duper, and anyway, the so called purbeyors of poo get all their info from these stuck up Islington B-liar-ite youngters from the internet anyway, i mean a 5c global increase by 2100 - do me a favour - get a grip.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

More than enough histrionics in this thread to give the MOD a run for its money  

[radiohead]

Would be a mistake to throw the 18Z GFS in the bin unless it's a outlier from the 18Z GEFS. We'll see soon...

We have seen the GFS as the first to pick up on the downgrades of failed cold spells in recent years.

 

[cyclonic happiness]

Look, we're going to get a frost!!! Isn't that better than anything else this winter down south???

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Look, we're going to get a frost!!! Isn't that better than anything else this winter down south???

NO - a we want a right pasting - a foot of snow or record breaking cold like -25c!!!!!!

[cornish snow]

46 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Look, we're going to get a frost!!! Isn't that better than anything else this winter down south???

Dam right.First time this winter i could see my breath, and the car registered 3c. Stars out as well.

Just to scrape the car windscreen once this winter would be like winning the lottery(well,not quite)

COME ON, just  1 frost out of this cold spell,is that asking to much?

Probably.

[Woollymummy]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

Perhaps you need to put yourself in the shoes of the team, there are hundreds of posts being made, 99% of them are fine and on topic. 1% aren't, we can't read every post.  Some  iffy ones are reported, some aren't. When we get a report, or see a problem, we act on it.

People using the thread want it to be about the models, that's the feedback we get over and over again, so we try to keep it that way. And all we're asking is people have a thought about what they're posting, and if it's not actually about the models (as your post wasn't) then post it in the relevant place. I don't think it's very much to ask.

You all do an amazing job, I didn't put a chart in because my comment was about other people, and their lack of relevance, and about moaning about my socks, as it was the ranting, moaning thread. I honestly didn't mean to offend any team members, The threads would look worse than my socks if you weren't there to monitor them :-)

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Well you can never say the GFS isn't interesting. On this evening's run it has developed a low in the northerly circulation of the tropical cyclone that has developed to the east of the Bahamas and has tracked it north then north east to be west of Ireland by Friday of next week

No way in the world that's going to play out.

This is the most sensible post in the last 3 hours of Netweather.

[radiohead]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Well you can never say the GFS isn't interesting. On this evening's run it has developed a low in the northerly circulation of the tropical cyclone that has developed to the east of the Bahamas and has tracked it north then north east to be west of Ireland by Friday of next week

No way in the world that's going to play out.

 

 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

2.3 c Here and 996 HPA Coldest it's been here for a very long time ... The cold is coming ' i can smell it .

[knocker]

The 00z GFS continues it's theme of developing the low from the tropical cyclone by Thursday of next week, the cyclone itself is no longer a feature by Friday, and runs it north and then north east to be west of Ireland by Sunday with associated fronts bring wet and windy weather to the UK. This is not dissimilar to the previous run but it's still extremely unlikely that it will eventually pan out in this manner. But very interesting all the same.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited January 8, 2016 by knocker

[The PIT]

A poor 00 oz gfs cold delayed again and downgraded. This could still end up being still born. hopefully the next runs will upgrade and the GFS has gone on one.

[knocker]

Last night's EC32 update has the upper air structure in place, the upper low centred over southern Sweden, for the start of the cold interlude on Wednesday. How long this interlude lasts is up for grabs and depends when and where trough realigns. The indications are that by Tues. the 19th a NW flow will be established and cooler, though still nippy, air will be the order of the day. We are looking at some quite cold temps during the interlude at least six degrees below average. By the end of the week we are back to a zonal westerly as the Greenland block waves goodbye.

Of course the detail of possible quite severe frosts and any snowfall is down to how the surface micro evolution pans out and possible interference from the daughter of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

[joggs]

Could we be undone by the extra tropical storm?!?!

[TheHumph]

 its going the way of the proverbial pear in terms of a longer lasting spell of cold weather.  Hopefully something will evolve later in the month unless the UKMO has got it right.

Edited January 8, 2016 by TheHumph

[Liam J]

And people were slating the Met Office for not going with prolonged cold and snow.... Looks like they were right all along, but we'll have to see how the next few days go and if this trend continues. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

And people were slating the Met Office for not going with prolonged cold and snow.... Looks like they were right all along, but we'll have to see how the next few days go and if this trend continues. 

Yes, as i said efore, the modes almost follow suite to the MO these days, SSW mid feb is whats needed now. Gutted!  knew deep down what was going to happen though.

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, as i said efore, the modes almost follow suite to the MO these days, SSW mid feb is whats needed now. Gutted!  knew deep down what was going to happen though.

Things may change again in the coming days but I won't hold my breath, a real blow to see the ECM move towards the GFS - Short lived colder spell but not even looking all that cold if you view the 850's before the Atlantic comes knocking on the door... GFS was first to spot this trend. 

[TheHumph]

19 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

And people were slating the Met Office for not going with prolonged cold and snow.... Looks like they were right all along, but we'll have to see how the next few days go and if this trend continues. 

........and rather Ironically the UKMO is the best option at this stage! They must have sight of other variables that we are not privy to as well as the knowledge and expertise of experienced forecasters.  You have to tip your hat to them.