Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[ReindeerMarmalade]

4 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

All I'm saying knocker is that the meto were very bullish writing January off with positive anomalies throughout, and only a few hours after this post, the models picked up on the current signals, but yet they still are bullish about not mentioning the possibilities that lie only a few days ahead.

To me that is a very unreliable service. Oh and I don't get paid millions to do so.

OK, I'll bite  What possibilities are the MetO continuing to not mention?

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

All I'm saying knocker is that the meto were very bullish writing January off with positive anomalies throughout, and only a few hours after this post, the models picked up on the current signals, but yet they still are bullish about not mentioning the possibilities that lie only a few days ahead.

To me that is a very unreliable service. Oh and I don't get paid millions to do so.

On the contrary, kev, that is precisely what they are doing. What they're not doing, is what we tend to do (due to over-excitement in my case) on here - highlight those possibilities as though they are near certainties...

[johnholmes]

so easy to criticise and sometimes without all the facts. The first solid evidence to me, using free data, was 3 days ago when the first of the anomaly charts showed the evolving pattern. Not sure what UK Met have, for sure one heck of a lot more data. The problem then is for each senior man to shuffle through the piles of data that come in several times each day, then try to decide which is the most reliable and likely to give a reasonably solid basis for a forecast, be it 24 hours ahead 6-15 or 30 days or a season.

The Met model data, available to us, has consistently shown the winter to be about average to mild but trending a touch below in the latter part. What their model did not show, the seasonal one that is, although I have not kept the issues, was the huge rainfall totals for parts of the western half of the country.

[Liam J]

6 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

All I'm saying knocker is that the meto were very bullish writing January off with positive anomalies throughout, and only a few hours after this post, the models picked up on the current signals, but yet they still are bullish about not mentioning the possibilities that lie only a few days ahead.

To me that is a very unreliable service. Oh and I don't get paid millions to do so.

Well, I must have been reading a completely different week ahead forecast to you... Unless ''cold spell'' ''snow'' ''frost'' aren't a possibility NEXT week, not in just a few days... 

[geordiekev]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

On the contrary, kev, that is precisely what they are doing. What they're not doing, is what we tend to do (due to over-excitement in my case) on here - highlight those possibilities as though they are near certainties...

Whilst I agree they have a duty to remain cautious and not hopecast. I mainly refer to the bullish post from new years eve and every different bbc presenter since then seems to have a different spin on the upcoming cold spell.

I know models change several times a day and their tv broadcasts reflect this, but I am mainly referring to the bullish comment made merely 6 days ago. It's easy to forecast average, slightly above average, slightly below average. I just feel that they fall down with extremities.

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

All I'm saying knocker is that the meto were very bullish writing January off with positive anomalies throughout, and only a few hours after this post, the models picked up on the current signals, but yet they still are bullish about not mentioning the possibilities that lie only a few days ahead.

To me that is a very unreliable service. Oh and I don't get paid millions to do so.

ill take what the met o say over the hysteria presented in the md thread any day.

i think the met o are right to be cautious, a 'big freeze' that some gfs runs suggest isnt a dead cert, although it will get much colder next week. im far from convinced that itll be as severe as some runs are suggesting. the ever reliable noaa charts keep the upper flow from the northwest, so i wouldnt have thought anything other then a brief northeasterly/easterly will be possible  - feel free to correct this anyone if im wrong. theres the exit of this controling upper low, which is still uncertain (but necessary for the cold to arrive) . plus a possible azores low, and the azores / greenland high link hasnt even begun to start.

imho people are placing too much faith in desired charts, desiring them doesnt make them happen!

the outlook is complicated and uncertain, and the desired charts are still fi.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

While I support te Met Office and BBC weather team for their caution, I do agree that there has been a fair degree of variance between forecasts dependent upon who has been fronting it.  I noticed at earlier that the message is now "colder but mostly dry" which I suspect is the most likely solution for most during the middle of next week.

[tempestwatch]

On 17/12/2015 at 4:27 PM, Costa Del Fal said:

But isn't this warmth largely a result of a very strong El Niño driving the pattern and over riding other signals - hence the persistent euro high. 

As to the impact on El Niño from climate change, the science leaves very mixed opinions on that especially in our part of the world.

 

Hi Costa,

As a scientist (environmental not meterological) i always want to form opinion on evidence based reseach. Now there is no doubt that the world is warming and that some of that warming is human induced, but how much of the 1.5 degrees (think this is the correct figure) is from man, and how much is down to natural cycles such as the PDO and the Atlantic cold and warm phases? This is not to many the many other cycles little understood. From that 1.5 degrees that can be assigned to man, how much is statistically significant.

Mix xurrent short cycles of el nino and you can get a very confusing picture. I remember in the mid seventies scientists said we were going into the next ice age because of the hard winters we had, never mind the long heatwave and draught we had after that

[geordiekev]

11 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Well, I must have been reading a completely different week ahead forecast to you... Unless ''cold spell'' ''snow'' ''frost'' aren't a possibility NEXT week, not in just a few days... 

But isn't that playing catch up. They said positive anomolies throughout Jan only 6 days ago and only last night did they start mentioning more merely a cold spell. Yesterday's daytime referred to a short spell, which admittedly changed last night.

I'm not playing devils advocate just saying as I have seen it play out this last week.

[winterof79]

Do know the really good news about having a cold spell in January?

Well there is a 60% chance it will snow whilst dark with only 8 hours max of daylight.Get in

[knocker]

53 minutes ago, AWD said:

Hi Knocker.

 

You're one of the few on here  who calls it straight down the line with little bias.  (Although somewhat "flashy" with the red pens now and again).

Looking at the Ops out to T144 then the ens for the time beyond that I'm struggiling to find evidence to suggest anything other than normal winter fare IMBY.  Key word being IMBY.

Any snowfall conducive airmass remains FI stuff for now and although the hemispheric pattern could evolve into something more noteworthy in terms of cold further downtown the line, that's all ifs and buts at the moment.

For southern England, I would summarise as getting colder with night air frosts and slightly below average daytime maxima next week with any PPN more than likely to be wet rather than white at this stage.  The possibility of a more pronounced colder phase in the extended timeframe but very uncertain with a slightly greater chance of a small rise in temperatures favoured instead, although nothing classed as mild.

What do you think Knocker?

Hi AWD

Firstly I don't profess to be, nor am I, particularly knowledgeable in this area I just call it as I see it.  Essentially I think the pattern change to a colder regime the middle of next week is pretty much nailed on but the detailed evolution from then on is not obvious. We are currently looking at the upper trough in the southern States creating the lows zipping up the eastern seaboard bringing WAA up into western Greenland which is augmenting the Greenland and mid Atlantic high. Thrown into this mix is the upper trough away to the south west. I think the LP forecast to travel NE from this on the latest ecm will probably move into France and points east.

So what are we left with. The UK in a somewhat nondescript are between the cold air to the east and the cooler, but by no means mild to the west. So for a few days the UK will be subject to much colder regime with the prospect of snow in some areas although it's not obvious to me that any major falls are on the cards. After that I suspect the blocking to the west will become less influential after the 18th with a NW becoming W flow resuming with temps around average.

But hey what do I know and this is all speculation ten days down the line and could well be all change to the Bakerloo line after today's runs although I suspect they probably will not clarify things much.

And don't forget Sidney the squirrel is not hiding his nuts.

Edited January 7, 2016 by knocker

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 minutes ago, tempestwatch said:

Hi Costa,

As a scientist (environmental not meterological) i always want to form opinion on evidence based reseach. Now there is no doubt that the world is warming and that some of that warming is human induced, but how much of the 1.5 degrees (think this is the correct figure) is from man, and how much is down to natural cycles such as the PDO and the Atlantic cold and warm phases? This is not to many the many other cycles little understood. From that 1.5 degrees that can be assigned to man, how much is statistically significant.

Mix xurrent short cycles of el nino and you can get a very confusing picture. I remember in the mid seventies scientists said we were going into the next ice age because of the hard winters we had, never mind the long heatwave and draught we had after that

1970s "Ice Age" predictions were from a minority of researchers.  By all accounts, it was only ever a minority hypothesis; it's only in more recent years that it's been seen as the consensus at the time:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

 

[BM4PM]

met office have made some very bullish claims about next year being the warmest on record which reflects in their outlook. 

 The media would be all over them if they forcasted what some of the models have been showing. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by BM4PM

[Nouska]

41 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

All I'm saying knocker is that the meto were very bullish writing January off with positive anomalies throughout, and only a few hours after this post, the models picked up on the current signals, but yet they still are bullish about not mentioning the possibilities that lie only a few days ahead.

To me that is a very unreliable service. Oh and I don't get paid millions to do so.

On the 31st of December, the Met office were looking at an ECM monthly that had positive anomalies throughout January and a control/deterministic run showing temps at the to of ensemble spread - they couldn't, in all honesty, call anything different than that. To illustrate my point a couple of graphics which show what I mean - both from runs made on that day. I do not know what their in-house products showed but can only assume greater or similar positive temp anomalies.

    

[abruzzi spur]

3 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

met office have made some very bullish claims about next year being the warmest on record which reflects in their outlook. 

 The media would be all over them if they forcasted what some of the models have been showing. 

They have actually said one of the warmest.  And, of course, this is globally.  Whether or not our tiny island gets some cold weather is not going to skew the MO prediction nor cause them to or stop them forecasting something when they have sufficient confidence to do so.  I suspect the reason they are not forecasting what some of the models have been showing is because they will do what a public service forecaster should be doing which is to issue a balanced forecast based on as near to certainty as they can get. 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

1970s "Ice Age" predictions were from a minority of researchers.  By all accounts, it was only ever a minority hypothesis; it's only in more recent years that it's been seen as the consensus at the time:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

 

Quite correct, Chris; and added to that, in those far-off days of yore, purveyors of poo (like the Daily Fail and Daily Excrement) has readerships that were massive compared with those of today. Also, we had no Internet to help us sort the wheat from the chaff?

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

met office have made some very bullish claims about next year being the warmest on record which reflects in their outlook. 

 The media would be all over them if they forcasted what some of the models have been showing. 

No; they haven't!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Quite correct, Chris; and added to that, in those far-off days of yore, purveyors of poo (like the Daily Fail and Daily Excrement) has readerships that were massive compared with those of today. Also, we had no Internet to help us sort the wheat from the chaff?

I was trying to find potholer54's Youtube video which shows a table of all peer-reviewed papers that supported cooling from that decade, and it was pretty short!

Edited January 7, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[BM4PM]

12 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

They have actually said one of the warmest.  And, of course, this is globally.  Whether or not our tiny island gets some cold weather is not going to skew the MO prediction nor cause them to or stop them forecasting something when they have sufficient confidence to do so.  I suspect the reason they are not forecasting what some of the models have been showing is because they will do what a public service forecaster should be doing which is to issue a balanced forecast based on as near to certainty as they can get. 

You`ve missed my point, i didnt say that if it gets cold in the uk it screws up thier long term statement, my point was if the media pick up on them forcasting brutal cold i think they they may start pointing fingers. 

 

If we see a real cold spell develop and they metion very cold in their outlook, ill hold my hands up, but i very much doubt it!  

Edited January 7, 2016 by BM4PM

[BM4PM]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No; they haven't!

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/17/2016-set-to-be-hottest-year-on-record-globally

See here hope the link works.

[abruzzi spur]

Just now, BM4PM said:

You`ve missed my point, i didnt say that if it gets cold in the uk it screws up thier long term statement, my point was if the media pick up on them forcasting brutal cold i think they they may start pointing fingers. 

 

If we see a real cold spell develop and they metion very cold in their outlook, ill hold my hands up, but i very much doubt it!  

I don't think I did, but hey ho.  Your post suggests that the MO wouldn't forecast some of what is in the models because the media would give them a hard time and that they wouldn't want that.  I disagree for the reasons in my earlier post.  If  it's going to be very cold then the MO will forecast it.  Why on earth would they not?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

GFS 12z doing what the 18z did yesterday as it suggests lows hanging-around the southern half of the country thereby preventing cold from moving as far south.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

GFS also now trying to re-establish Euro high after the Azores low cuts-off the cold, in addition to squeezing the ridge.  It seems to be doing everything possible to deny coldies what they want.

[cornish snow]

Well,if the GFS12z is to be believed then there's no snow for me next week. Just lots of lovely,cold rain.

As usual,cold just getting pushed further and further back,always just over the horizon.

TBH as someone who works outside,i just want some dry weather,cold and dry would have been nice,but failing that,just dry.

Never known the ground quite as wet as it is at present,cant take much more of this.

[Interitus]

56 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/17/2016-set-to-be-hottest-year-on-record-globally

See here hope the link works.

 

1 hour ago, BM4PM said:

met office have made some very bullish claims about next year being the warmest on record which reflects in their outlook. 

 The media would be all over them if they forcasted what some of the models have been showing. 

 

They would only be all over them if, like you, they don't know the difference between annual global temperatures and a one week cold snap in the UK.