Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[JoeShmoe]

40 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Seems to me that we have a repeat of January 14 shaping up for January 16.

Stormy and v wet. 

I wouldnt bet against it, despite some of the straw clutching that's been going on in the 'other' thread of late.

Yes, unfortunately that's almost certainly the likely outcome when you take all the output as a whole - disappointing and very concerning for northern England 

[northwestsnow]

I just had a good look at February 1986 on wz and goodness me what i'd give for something similar for thisFeb

Vortex torn in two, dense cold pool moving west across Poland and Germany, i dont remember it being terribly snowy but i do remember the cold, extreme cold all the way from Siberia.

Maybe this year ?

[Polar Maritime]

34 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

As someone pointed out on Two, how can we expect cold weather, when even the north pole is above freezing in the middle of the Arctic night, in mid-winter???

 

Something is very, very broken this year.  Are these temperatures unprecedented up there???

 

(2 metre temps shown)

An interesting read here, Yes i agree unprecedented sums things up.

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/ 

Quote

Over the next few days these three lows are predicted to combine into a storm the likes of which the far North Atlantic rarely ever sees. This storm is expected to center over Iceland. But it will have far-reaching impacts ranging from the UK and on north to the pole itself. As the lows combine, GFS predicts them to bomb out into an unprecedentedly deep low featuring 920 to 930 mb (and possibly lower) minimum central pressures by this coming Wednesday. These pressures are comparable to the very extreme storm systems that raged through the North Atlantic during the Winter of 2013. Systems that featured minimum pressures in the range of 928 to 930 mb.

 

Edited December 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

39 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

As someone pointed out on Two, how can we expect cold weather, when even the north pole is above freezing in the middle of the Arctic night, in mid-winter???

 

Something is very, very broken this year.  Are these temperatures unprecedented up there???

 

(2 metre temps shown)

But you no that this is a completely false way of looking at things and it's just another way to throw a toy out of a pram. So if we apply your annalogy then I could say if we can get our winds sourced from Spain then we will have a temp of 4c ? Or an easterly wind will get us well below freezing ? The temp is unusual in the sense the southerly sourced air gets so far north but it's not the fact that's 'somethings very very wrong' , it's just an unusual set up , but very plausible given the set up . Once we loose the euro high and low pressure goes south then we loose the warm temps so far north .  Also it's very normal for warm air to move north on the western side of the high with cold air flooding south on the opposite side , it's basic physics.

. 

Edited December 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Weather-history]

38 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

As someone pointed out on Two, how can we expect cold weather, when even the north pole is above freezing in the middle of the Arctic night, in mid-winter???

 

Something is very, very broken this year.  Are these temperatures unprecedented up there???

 

(2 metre temps shown)

That's a ridiculous comment because just look at the chart! Comment would make sense if nowhere was below freezing but look at the chart!

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

But you no that this is a completely false way of looking at things and it's just another way to throw a toy out of a pram. So if we apply your annalogy then I could say if we can get our winds sourced from Spain then we will have a temp of 4c ? Or an easterly wind will get us well below freezing ? The temp is unusual in the sense the southerly sourced air gets so far north but it's not the fact that's 'somethings very very wrong' , it's just an unusual set up , but very plausible given the set up . Once we loose the euro high and low pressure goes south then we loose the warm temps so far north .  Also it's very normal for warm air to move north on the western side of the high with cold air flooding south on the opposite side , it's basic physics.

I think to be fair your probably right, but some of us have been living under a constant rain cloud for 2 months and locally, people have lost eveything in the face of this disgusting weather so, i guess its understandable people are fed up, i know i am.

But back to the point, yes your right some of the posts inc mine are too negative.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To edit quote.

[chionomaniac]

45 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

As someone pointed out on Two, how can we expect cold weather, when even the north pole is above freezing in the middle of the Arctic night, in mid-winter???

 

Something is very, very broken this year.  Are these temperatures unprecedented up there???

 

(2 metre temps shown)

One could and should argue that that is exactly the reason why we can expect cold weather at latitudes further south. Once you see WAA right into the core of the Arctic then any previously stable vortex will be completely disrupted as ridges develop on the eastern flank of the WAA and then displace the vortex. And that is what is occurring with some mid latitude regions and Scandinavia now receiving their first real cold of the season. It is a chart like this that I really want to see in winter.

[mountain shadow]

Indeed Chionomaniac,  and you can see the deep cold being displaced into the mid latitudes,  apart from GB and Ireland of course 

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Indeed Chionomaniac,  and you can see the deep cold being displaced into the mid latitudes,  apart from GB and Ireland of course 

Well, we take that for granted....

[Hocus Pocus]

Very poor outlook for IMBY swapping warm rain for cold rain but the net result being more flooding. I feel we'll end up with a cut off lobe of the PV anchored firmly to Greenland through the remainder of this winter,  the pattern now looks reminiscent to last year more or less.

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Really has been horrendous the past 2 years here in the Midlands. Last winter I only got 3 air frosts, and this winter so far zero.

 

thats odd..... here in derby it snowed and settled on boxing day last year, this mini freeze lasted 5 days.

17 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

going off the noaa charts, i do believe there is good potential for something cold. northern blocking, southerly jet, its not a 'given' its not certain, however after 40 + years of weather watching certain patterns spell danger with regards to cold spells, and this is one of them.

remember, im no lover of the cold, so ill not be ramping up the chances. if we are to get a cold spell, we need pretty much what the noaa charts show, at least from there we are only one step away.

northern european/scandinavian highs are notoriously stubborn to shift, often lasting far longer then originally expected, even now, this evolving one was at first only expected to be a short lived affair - now its sticking around and intensifying.

 

.......... and this morning the noaa 8-14 day chart has refused to continue a cold evolution, but is downgrading it.

so whilst they were trending in the right direction for a cold spell, this looks like failing now . this morning the azores high appears to shift eastwards, rising pressure over southern europe thus cutting off the atlantic systems southerly tracking exit and chances of an easterly on its northern flank.

so cooler, but unsettled with the rest of the country joining the northwest in getting wetter then recently as atlantic systems cross the uk (as opposed to taking a more northerly track) . temps average - mild but not as mild as recently.

[jethro]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

Yeah.. but much, much worse. Nothing like the flooding we've seen this year in Cumbria et al in 2013/2014.

I'd argue against that. Yes, Cumbria and Yorkshire have had lots of rain, yes the floods have been horrendous but worse than Somerset a couple of years ago? No.

Topography up there dictates that there's huge run off from the hills and moors, all that water gathers in the valley bottoms, the rivers rise very quickly, burst their banks and cause carnage. However, once that surge is over the water levels drop very quickly, folk can get in, clean up, get on with their lives.

The Somerset levels don't work like that, when they flood, they flood for months. People down here were rowing their kids to school for weeks, the waist high (and higher) water levels in their properties just sat there, no where to drain away to. The stories disappeared from the headlines as other news took over but the water didn't go and in some cases it was late spring/early summer before the water had dropped to a sufficient level to allow people to go home and clear up. All that water, mixed with raw sewage just sat there festering.

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, jethro said:

I'd argue against that. Yes, Cumbria and Yorkshire have had lots of rain, yes the floods have been horrendous but worse than Somerset a couple of years ago? No.

Topography up there dictates that there's huge run off from the hills and moors, all that water gathers in the valley bottoms, the rivers rise very quickly, burst their banks and cause carnage. However, once that surge is over the water levels drop very quickly, folk can get in, clean up, get on with their lives.

The Somerset levels don't work like that, when they flood, they flood for months. People down here were rowing their kids to school for weeks, the waist high (and higher) water levels in their properties just sat there, no where to drain away to. The stories disappeared from the headlines as other news took over but the water didn't go and in some cases it was late spring/early summer before the water had dropped to a sufficient level to allow people to go home and clear up. All that water, mixed with raw sewage just sat there festering.

Tosh. People haven't gotten on with their lives - their homes are still ruined and uninhabitable. Large areas of York are still inundated with water - and York is flatter than nearly anywhere else in the country so it has nothing else to do but sit around endlessly. Not to mention it is a very sizable settlement - so a slightly different scenario to farmers in the Somerset Levels.

Edited December 30, 2015 by cheese

[Gustywind]

Mushy,

The Boxing Day snow turned to rain in the west mids due to a milder sector, so we did get an initial covering but it quickly melted. 

The last proper snowcover I've seen was March 2013, astonishing that such a good winter has been followed by next to nothing for nearly 3 successive winters now.

I still expect a revival in cold weather fortunes towards the end of Jan and into Feb, but fear that for the next few weeks the Atlantic will prove unstoppable - more wet weather and flooding.

[markyo]

16 hours ago, markyo said:

Fingers crossed i could have been wrong about this winter,things are appearing to be a bit more positive,general trends seem to becoming more established,we need our seasons to be seasons and that includes summer(even though i am a total wimp and can't stand heat!!). Me thinks our weather must surely be the most complex and diverse in the world but getting stuck in any rut like we have been seems to be getting more common year on year.

I fully retract the first part of this statement,this winter is stuck in this pattern for the foreseeable,think we say this winter will be remembered for all the wrong reasons!

[Norrona2015]

This winter is shaping up to be a repeat of winter 2013/14.

[Polar Maritime]

Plenty of Winter left yet 

[MPG]

27 minutes ago, cheese said:

Tosh. People haven't gotten on with their lives - their homes are still ruined and uninhabitable. Large areas of York are still inundated with water - and York is flatter than nearly anywhere else in the country so it has nothing else to do but sit around endlessly. Not to mention it is a very sizable settlement - so a slightly different scenario to farmers in the Somerset Levels.

I have friends who are still NOT back in their homes in Somerset. Somerset 100 times worse than the current situation in the north. At least people in the north had a chance to recover some belongings when the water went down..........the people in Somerset lost everything and couldn't recover a thing. The water never went down for months!!!

[snow freak]

This winter is really starting to annoy me now.  the thought of yet another mild soggy winter fills me with despair.  Yes I know there are those who keep saying it is only the beginning of winter but after 2 months of this dismal depressing atlantic weather and with no end in sight, it hardly fills you with hope.  I am sure that true to UK weather form we shall have the 'winter' weather come the spring....when we don't want it and it is no good to anyone.  Very fed up at the moment to say the least.

[mezzacyclone]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Plenty of Winter left yet 

But how much turbo charged enso coupling firing atmospheric rivers of olr across the atlantic at us will eat up of that pm?

the 2015-16 EN will impact many far & wide across the globe - no s*** sherlock!

[jethro]

32 minutes ago, cheese said:

Tosh. People haven't gotten on with their lives - their homes are still ruined and uninhabitable. Large areas of York are still inundated with water - and York is flatter than nearly anywhere else in the country so it has nothing else to do but sit around endlessly. Not to mention it is a very sizable settlement - so a slightly different scenario to farmers in the Somerset Levels.

No, it's not tosh. I know York, I used to live a few miles from Tadcaster and yes it's flat (not flat on the scale of the Somerset levels though), it's not known as the vale of York for nothing. However, the water recedes very quickly. People are and will be able to get back into their homes very quickly, the clean up operation will get under way, houses will be repaired, insurance claims settled. Not so when Somerset flooded.

The A19 was impassable for a couple of days, parts of it are probably still very soggy, it took three months for some of the roads around here to drain enough for cars to be able to pass. No immediate government intervention around here, it was an entire month before we got a visitation. No pleas for insurance companies to settle quickly so people can rebuild, some folk are still to this day trying to get their claims settled.

There's been a lot of complaints aired about how the south gets flood money spent at the expense of the north, well this part of the south certainly doesn't. And because it's primarily farmland, there's no rush to help either when it does get devastated by floods. Check out this BBC timeline of what happened and how long it took to get any kind of notice taken, let alone help.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-26157538

[March Blizzard]

1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

As someone pointed out on Two, how can we expect cold weather, when even the north pole is above freezing in the middle of the Arctic night, in mid-winter???

 

Something is very, very broken this year.  Are these temperatures unprecedented up there???

 

(2 metre temps shown)

It is very weird to see temperatures in Svalbard similar to what we should normally be seeing in a UK winter, 5C max forecast for Longyearbyen tomorrow. At almost 80 degrees North, in late December. Crazy.

[Paul White.]

I wish there was a thread for cold model output discussion. In the MOD thread it drives me insane reading people's posts about mild mild mild. Where is the skill in predicting mild for the uk? In the new cold model output discussion nobody is allowed to use the M word and certainly not the B word just post charts of cold be FI or reliable. And here is the best bit if cold is not on the horizen the thread should be empty, then we don't need to waste time wading through the endless posts about mild.

 

just a thought.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Paul White.

[78/79]

48 minutes ago, cheese said:

Tosh. People haven't gotten on with their lives - their homes are still ruined and uninhabitable. Large areas of York are still inundated with water - and York is flatter than nearly anywhere else in the country so it has nothing else to do but sit around endlessly. Not to mention it is a very sizable settlement - so a slightly different scenario to farmers in the Somerset Levels.

Just to clarify the above,  it wasn't only farmers" who were affected complete villages were under water, ,and if memory serves me right ,next to nothing came from central government for the first month or two, the county was left  on its own to get on with it. It was only after a lot of media pressure, and when the likes of Windsor started to experience similar problems that they eventually pulled their fingers out.

[The PIT]

The floods this year are much worse than the floods in Somerset as was the flooding in 2007 http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/33cceb85-4fdc-3bd5-824e-6c7d5319e09c

As for people getting abck into their houses people can out of the houses for a very long time. In 2007 some weren't back in the home even after 2 years. General figures branded around is 9 months.