Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Mullet]

5 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

That pretty much sums up January 2014. A huge Scandy high in place for most of the month, but never quite got close enough to block of the Atlantic. All it did was stalled weather fronts of the UK, producing copious rainfall totals, culminating in the wettest January and winter on record.

Oh that's the one! 

Think I remember Nick Sussex wishing that one away in the end because it was effectively useless... Here's hoping we don't see a repeat for obvious reasons. 

Edited December 28, 2015 by Mullet

[Bristawl Si]

9 hours ago, Mullet said:

Oh that's the one! 

Think I remember Nick Sussex wishing that one away in the end because it was effectively useless... Here's hoping we don't see a repeat for obvious reasons. 

I mentioned this the other day - it was more of a Russian high. All fronts stalled over Blighty and the heavens opened, so to speak. A number of severe storms that January as well.

Could be a repeat on the cards.

Edited December 29, 2015 by Bristle boy

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

That pretty much sums up January 2014. A huge Scandy high in place for most of the month, but never quite got close enough to block off the Atlantic. All it did was stalled weather fronts over the UK, producing copious rainfall totals, culminating in the wettest January and winter on record.

It wasn't huge and I think that was part of the problem. If it was closer to 1045mb and there were yellows in the 500pa chart over Scandi, it would have been a different.  The high was too weak other than act like a ball trapped between rotating cogs. Towards the end of the month, the high gained strength but drifted too far east.

It was a horrible month. 

Edited December 29, 2015 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, Mullet said:

I think from a cold perspective it's better to have the euro's developing together. Since I've been reading this site, none of the established members fully trusted the output if the ukmo wasn't on board in some way.

Hopefully for those who enjoy the cold, we won't end up with one of those monster highs that stick around forever without advancing West enough, leaving the UK getting drenched on the wrong side. Can't remember what year it was, but I remember once that happened for bloody weeks and we just couldn't get a favourable set up to tap into it. Don't have the knowledge to rule that out though! 

 

January 1937 would have coldies tearing their hair out. That was a very wet month, for two weeks a large high pressure sat up around NW Russia and into Scandi, low pressures unable to get under the block until near the end of January and then it was about a 48-72 wonder for the British Isles.

[mushymanrob]

as i see it, the main point is that theres expected to be northern latitude blocking with a southerly tracking jet.

as long as these features are in place NO ONE can rule out a cold spell, easterly or otherwise.. all the ingredients will be in place and it might take several weeks to produce a bitterly cold spell, so just because its not likely to happen fast doesnt mean it wont happen at all.

of course, like november 14 theres no guarantee that we will get the final step to give us cold, we may well just carry on receiving atlantic systems and the wet unsettled (but cooler average) weather continues.

i think it depends upon the relative strengths and exact positions of the azores and scandinavian highs. a weaker azores/stronger scandi will push atlantic systems further south and increase the risk of the bitterly cold air over northern europe being drawn westward. a stronger azores/weaker scandi will see the atlantic systems keeping the uk unsettled milder and wet. 

the only thing thats certain, is nothing is ceertain!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Deepest FI but some GFS runs been showing high pressure moving in from the SW for 2nd week of Jan, not expecting it to happen mind you, it's bound to downgrade to our usual wet/windy

[cobbett]

So appears now after the initial anticipation of some seasonal wintry weather all we will end up with is replacing mild and wet with cool and wet ... Oh deep joy 

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, cobbett said:

So appears now after the initial anticipation of some seasonal wintry weather all we will end up with is replacing mild and wet with cool and wet ... Oh deep joy 

It seems that way but it's still wouldn't take a lot for them to shift back to wintry outlook as the UKMO is still bullish about and with each run being different no solution is decided upon yet I expect tonight we will have more clarity. I am more worried about Frank could cause a lot of damage.

[cheeky_monkey]

lets be honest when was the last time there was a full blown scandi high that delivered a sever cold spell with snow...i wasnt in the UK between 2009-14 but prior to that the last time i can remember was Feb 1991...it seemed to be a fairly regular winter  visitor through the 50s, 60s, 70s & 80s but hasnt occured fully since 1991 ?

[The PIT]

Overall model trend is away from colder conditions however normal temps will feel cold as will even slightly above. Actually apart from Jan 1st night time temps are above average so we are not actually entering a cold spell. Looked briefly hopeful but sadly no cigar.

[pip22]

I am normally a coldie and I supposed to going to holiday in Tenerife 4th January. I really got annoyed that the models showing colder weather on the horizon.

Typical!!  I hope the colder weather will stay long enough when I come back from Spain.

 

Edited December 29, 2015 by pip22

[Polar Maritime]

Meto text update looking more promising for seasonal weather today as we head into the new year.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2016:

Remaining essentially unsettled across all parts throughout the period, with further bouts of wet and windy weather to come. The rain occasionally heavy and accompanied by gales, although much quieter, brighter weather can be expected in-between frontal systems. Still rather mild at times, particularly in the south, but generally feeling colder than of late with a greater risk of frost at night during quieter interludes. The rain also turning to snow at times in the north and northeast, mainly on higher ground, but with the risk increasing at low levels too later in the period as the potential for much colder weather increases. Looking at the period as a whole, temperatures are expected to be around average for January, though perhaps slightly above average towards the southwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Although mine is the extended..  Much better updates from the meto text today.

its in line with what id expect viewing the noaa charts...

[Polar Maritime]

Yes absolutely Rob. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

its in line with what id expect viewing the noaa charts...

You still seem quite bullish regarding colder weather, Rob.

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Meto text update looking more promising for seasonal weather today as we head into the new year.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2016:

Remaining essentially unsettled across all parts throughout the period, with further bouts of wet and windy weather to come. The rain occasionally heavy and accompanied by gales, although much quieter, brighter weather can be expected in-between frontal systems. Still rather mild at times, particularly in the south, but generally feeling colder than of late with a greater risk of frost at night during quieter interludes. The rain also turning to snow at times in the north and northeast, mainly on higher ground, but with the risk increasing at low levels too later in the period as the potential for much colder weather increases. Looking at the period as a whole, temperatures are expected to be around average for January, though perhaps slightly above average towards the southwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Yes the switch to a weaker vortex and a forecasted - ve AO seems to be the reason.

Finally some of the Arctic cold will be expelled into more southern latitudes around the NH.Just a case of if we get lucky and see some of it.

At least with the jet further south it get's us into more seasonal temperatures.

[tight isobar]

Come on sleet....

And o don't mean in precipitation form.

But the 2:50 @ southwell this afternoon. ;-)

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You still seem quite bullish regarding colder weather, Rob.

going off the noaa charts, i do believe there is good potential for something cold. northern blocking, southerly jet, its not a 'given' its not certain, however after 40 + years of weather watching certain patterns spell danger with regards to cold spells, and this is one of them.

remember, im no lover of the cold, so ill not be ramping up the chances. if we are to get a cold spell, we need pretty much what the noaa charts show, at least from there we are only one step away.

northern european/scandinavian highs are notoriously stubborn to shift, often lasting far longer then originally expected, even now, this evolving one was at first only expected to be a short lived affair - now its sticking around and intensifying.

 

[knocker]

Oooh, the 12z UKMO is sniffing the coffee............................................

 

[markyo]

Fingers crossed i could have been wrong about this winter,things are appearing to be a bit more positive,general trends seem to becoming more established,we need our seasons to be seasons and that includes summer(even though i am a total wimp and can't stand heat!!). Me thinks our weather must surely be the most complex and diverse in the world but getting stuck in any rut like we have been seems to be getting more common year on year.

[Weather-history]

A decent day but the storm approaches towards the end

 

[Froze were the Days]

If your after miserable wet weather and becoming somewhat colder in the New Year then the UK is probably your place to be...can see some snow to higher ground in the north but unfortunately cannot see anything significant happening coldwise in the next couple or so weeks. A lot of hope casting at present in the MOD section.

Edited December 29, 2015 by Froze were the Days

[78/79]

Hopefully it will freeze solid for a few weeks and may kill off some of these viruses etc that are doing the rounds, warm and wet = coughs colds and other such rubbish  in my book. There was I think, a study  in Moscow a few years ago which showed that the occurrence of colds etc are much lower  there and in

other such cold climates.

Edited December 29, 2015 by 78/79

[The PIT]

Yuk awful gfs back to 7 and 8's bar new years day. So much for a cool down. Well it compared to what we've been used too. But zero chance of any white stuff here..

Edited December 29, 2015 by The PIT

[four seasons in one day]

Awaiting the first mention of blizzards by fergie. May take some time yet. 

2000+ likes guaranteed lol.