Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Gavin Hannah]

I like to ref Dec 2009, I don't think anyone saw that coming until very near the time. From memory, it had been wet and windy up to that point so yeah, models are good in the short term but longer term is still not written off by any stretch of the imagination.  If we get to a week out from Xmas and it's showing mild mush, then I will accept that a white Xmas is looking unlikely.

 

From what I've been reading, most of the knowledgeable folks are punting for a Cold and Wintry Jan/Feb so perhaps a chance of something more like 2010/11? And while it's dissapointing when Xmas day turns out to be 10 degrees and wet, 2009 I think, was a rare oddity. Emphasis on 'rare'. My experience would lead me to suggest that the UK is always a month behind in terms of "seasonal weather" because of our location, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility, it's just harder to come by events like 2009/10 & 2010/11.... Also, the north of the UK does better than down here in the south just by the nautre of being 'the north'.

 

Anyway, still a week from December so I will not be getting to disheartened just yet. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mushymanrob, I don't mind the mild as such, its the rain I cannot stand, and gales, give me a Feb '98 anyday, 19C and dry

 

my favourite of course is cold/snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 12Z I see is on the drink again! WTF in FI still with the high pressure? lost faith in GFS, ECM the most accurate, watch the 12Z have unsettled lows over us at 216 and 240

[cheshire snow]

GFS 12Z I see is on the drink again! WTF in FI still with the high pressure? lost faith in GFS, ECM the most accurate, watch the 12Z have unsettled lows over us at 216 and 240

LOL

Thought you always took the GFS as Gospel

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

LOL

Thought you always took the GFS as Gospel

C.S

 

just it goes completely against netweather's forecast, no mention of high pressure/settled weather mild or cold, unless read it wrong

 

and Dec is renowned for gales and rain full on zonal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well ECM going for settled as well, although mainly mild in FI, still not buying this

[cheshire snow]

just it goes completely against netweather's forecast, no mention of high pressure/settled weather mild or cold, unless read it wrong

 

and Dec is renowned for gales and rain full on zonal

Funny i read it differently,but hey ho its your opinion and you

Are entitled to it

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Funny i read it differently,but hey ho its your opinion and you

Are entitled to it

C.S

 

I only mean Dec, I read it as Atlantic depressions dominating, wet and windy spells for UK, cannot see any mentions of any high pressure even a 2 day break, any frost/fog

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 00Z on the vodka again! GFS is wrong from 4th Dec! ECM looks much more realistic with low after low battering the UK

 

I still expect GFS to come in line on 12Z

[Gavin Hannah]

GFS 00Z on the vodka again! GFS is wrong from 4th Dec! ECM looks much more realistic with low after low battering the UK

 

I still expect GFS to come in line on 12Z

 

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS was the only one that got it right lol....

[mushymanrob]

i see the gfs is giving hope to those looking for cold.

but the anomaly charts dont allow for such a pressure build , could the 00z gfs have picked up on something the anoms havnt yet?...

i wouldnt bet on it....

[MPG]

No battle now - both agree on westerly, mobile regime (generally) to late Dec, albeit more mixed end of Dec re the degree of mobility. As UKMO noted in briefing last night, no current model signs, as yet, of anything notably cold in the forseeable.

Jumped the gun saying GLOSEA was showing something more seasonal. Anyway that can change again as it already has to a westerly regime. So thats it? What if the 12z shows the ridging again.....shall we not bother to discuss?

Edited November 27, 2015 by MPG

[mountain shadow]

Jumped the gun saying GLOSEA was showing something more seasonal. Anyway that can change again as it already has to a westerly regime. So thats it? What if the 12z shows the ridging again.....shall we not bother to discuss?

No, you can discuss it, but unless it has support from another major model, then it can be pretty much ignored.

 

All eyes on January now.

[Liam J]

Jumped the gun saying GLOSEA was showing something more seasonal. Anyway that can change again as it already has to a westerly regime. So thats it? What if the 12z shows the ridging again.....shall we not bother to discuss?

LOL...Why should you not bother to discuss based on what Ian just said? All he said was that on current Glosea & Ext ECM there is no notable cold showing for the foreseeable... Did he say every other NWP model is wrong and must be ignored?  

[cobbett]

Same old arguments every year when Fergie appears  to write off a whole month based on one GLOSEA run. It's what it currently shows. Would love to know it's long range verification stats throughout winter but would assume that without some compelling signal for a pattern change it just defaults to a the usual mobile westerly regime. The next met outlook will as 90% of the time mention - Windy and Rain in the NW, drier in the SE. Even I could forecast that

[knocker]

One things for certain if the EC32 and GLOSEA were hinting at a probability of severe cold and blizzards sweeping the country in the middle of December many would have their prayer mats out paying homage to the Gods of medium range forecasting.

[mountain shadow]

The reality is that mid term modelling has improved so much that a sudden unforecasted cold spell suddenly appearing and happening in the 15-30 days timeframe is virtually unlikely to happen, particularly when both the EC32 and GLOSEA are aligned.

 

It does of course make for boring model watching as you know to ignore any cold GFS FI charts without support from the major players.

 

Unfortunately, this does mean that a White Christmas is highly improbable unless a toppler occurs on the day and we need to look for early signs from the Strat followed by the likes of GLOSEA and the EC32 giving hints of a change.

 

It really is a case of come back around the 15th December and see if anything is brewing towards the end of December.

[mushymanrob]

The reality is that mid term modelling has improved so much that a sudden unforecasted cold spell suddenly appearing and happening in the 15-30 days timeframe is virtually unlikely to happen, particularly when both the EC32 and GLOSEA are aligned.

 

It does of course make for boring model watching as you know to ignore any cold GFS FI charts without support from the major players.

 

Unfortunately, this does mean that a White Christmas is highly improbable unless a toppler occurs on the day and we need to look for early signs from the Strat followed by the likes of GLOSEA and the EC32 giving hints of a change.

 

It really is a case of come back around the 15th December and see if anything is brewing towards the end of December.

 

out as far as 30 days?... really?... i do agree with your point though, id have thought 20 days though.

[John Badrick]

The reality is that mid term modelling has improved so much that a sudden unforecasted cold spell suddenly appearing and happening in the 15-30 days timeframe is virtually unlikely to happen, particularly when both the EC32 and GLOSEA are aligned.

 

It does of course make for boring model watching as you know to ignore any cold GFS FI charts without support from the major players.

 

Unfortunately, this does mean that a White Christmas is highly improbable unless a toppler occurs on the day and we need to look for early signs from the Strat followed by the likes of GLOSEA and the EC32 giving hints of a change.

 

It really is a case of come back around the 15th December and see if anything is brewing towards the end of December.

Its hilarious and a bit embarrassing how one comment can make people really believe that a whole months weather can be set in stone. No one can predict the weather a month in advance, don't care how professional they are and how many super duper, upgraded computers they have at their disposal . They haven't got some kind of crystal ball that tells the future. If they did they would be very rich indeed. How many times have people said only take models seriously 5-10 days in advance at a push, which takes us to the beginning of December -WINTER!!! Come back in a couple of days around, let's say Dec 2nd when winter starts to see if there is anything wintry in store

[Hocus Pocus]

One things for certain if the EC32 and GLOSEA were hinting at a probability of severe cold and blizzards sweeping the country in the middle of December many would have their prayer mats out paying homage to the Gods of medium range forecasting.

Surely you're not implying we would all pay homage to our new lord and saviour if such an outcome cropped up.

[PompeyFC]

theres talk of "That ECM" on the model thread.  Anyone got a copy/link to/of it - I remember is being a corker but would like another look at it

 

Tried searching here but cannot find it

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z a little bit more realistic, getting there, 12Z will go more zonal, and tomorrows GFS will be back to normality showing raging zonality

 

ECM 12Z showing very similar

[cheese]

People always say 'ooh our climate is so variable' or 'ooh model watching is soo interesting' but I'm not seeing an evidence for either of those things.. all I'm seeing is a continuation of the crap we've had for all of November.

[mountain shadow]

Its hilarious and a bit embarrassing how one comment can make people really believe that a whole months weather can be set in stone. No one can predict the weather a month in advance, don't care how professional they are and how many super duper, upgraded computers they have at their disposal . They haven't got some kind of crystal ball that tells the future. If they did they would be very rich indeed. How many times have people said only take models seriously 5-10 days in advance at a push, which takes us to the beginning of December -WINTER!!! Come back in a couple of days around, let's say Dec 2nd when winter starts to see if there is anything wintry in store

I think my comments are being misconstrued.

 

All I'm saying is that when you have agreement between two of the best mid rangers out to 30 days then it is more than probable that they will be right.

 

These mid rangers are the best out there and programmed to look for the major changes which may impact us, it there were any signs of that for the next 30 days, they would be showing it, and they arent.

[cobbett]

Anything from 20-30 days out is surely just based on probabilities than anything else. I'd be more interested in knowing when was the last time one of these models picked up a major pattern signal (away from a mobile westerly regime) that far out and got it correct.

 

I might be impressed if it regularly picks up on these