Ireland Regional Weather Chat - 20/11/2015 Onward.

[Neiller22]

24 minutes ago, ronan said:

Don't even get me started on their s***e forecasts!!

if Bara had be presenting it I think that would have tipped me over the edge. !!! Anyway here come the upgrades later. Can feel it in my bones. (what you reckon Booferking)

 

[booferking]

2 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

I

37 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

if Bara had be presenting it I think that would have tipped me over the edge. !!! Anyway here come the upgrades later. Can feel it in my bones. (what you reckon Booferking)

 

Its happening this time Neiller i can feel it a small upgrade then more to follow heads down for the 12 and fingers & toes crossed

[Neiller22]

O dear, O dear, O dear!!! and the backtracks keep on coming!

[mountain shadow]

I have to say I'm pretty shell shocked this pm. Unless the ECM does an about turn this evening we could be facing yet another let down.

I still think some will see snow next week and there will be night frosts but not half as much as I was expecting a couple of days ago.

[booferking]

The GFS links the Arctic High to Greenland then goes pear shape LOL,  i think this can upgrade substantially to be more in line with GEM.

Glacier point and Joe Bastardi said just yesterday that the GEM should handle this better not sure why but they did state this and it has not changed its output for days.

Time will tell if this is a epic fail are charts galore 

Edited January 8, 2016 by booferking

[Neiller22]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I have to say I'm pretty shell shocked this pm. Unless the ECM does an about turn this evening we could be facing yet another let down.

I still think some will see snow next week and there will be night frosts but not half as much as I was expecting a couple of days ago.

Totally agree. It was always in the back of my head that this could very easily happen. If it keeps backtracking we could get nout! Maybe tomorrow it will start swing the other way again

[BornFromTheVoid]

Best to remember GP's comments at the start of the month

Northerly flow period occurring during 15th-20th January, candidate pattern shift to classical -NAO around 25th/26th January. If the cards fell right, that could be cold throughout and would certainly denote potential for the second half of the month to be colder than the first, more likely the latter third.

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

34 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Best to remember GP's comments at the start of the month

Northerly flow period occurring during 15th-20th January, candidate pattern shift to classical -NAO around 25th/26th January. If the cards fell right, that could be cold throughout and would certainly denote potential for the second half of the month to be colder than the first, more likely the latter third.

 

This is what I keep alluding too

[Abyss]

I find the models to be absolutely useless. When it's zonal no worries but when there are hints of something colder they're useless.  The amount of chopping and changing from all of them is ridiculous. I notice this everytime there is something colder showing it's utter chaos lol. 

 

 

[booferking]

The ecm keeps the cold to the end then trys to bring in the beast from the east crazy charts all over the place.

[Rocheydub]

As I said in the MOD thread, the big bonus is that the vortex is most disorganised! That's always positive. We will get some snow midweek, it'll feel properly wintery too, and while it warms up slightly, it will still remain on the cold side of normal...

 

then the ECM throws in a quasi Scandinavia high with an undercutting low cell. Mad to tease us!!!

[sundog]

Well the models have been a right bloody mess this week. A bit of an embarrassment even (granted it wll be getting colder anyway but still).

But i am sure we would all have taken next weeks set up with glee ony a few short weeks ago. The models are such a mess that you never know what might happen and for that reason upgrades cant be ruled out:

Most likely we will perhaps need a few bites of the cherry to get what we ultimately want.

[bobbarley]

I see Knocker is boycotting the MOD thread and is now posting in the rants and discussion thread. More interesting in there anyway!

Edited January 8, 2016 by bobbarley

[because]

exciting few days ahead .. much better to be outside in the weather than following a thread !

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Did we just have a decent 18z???

[Su Campu]

The weather will do what it likes, regardless of the enormous amounts of emotional fireworks on display. I sometimes think that some people forget that and have a go at those who don't share the (usually overdone) optimism of the majority. I think everyone likes to see a bit of snow, some want more than others, but a little bit of maturity is lacking at times.

I think things will wobble back and forth before settling down in the next 24 hours, so no real point in watching every frame of every run as they come out until then. My own feeling is that we will see some major snow on higher ground through much of the country next week, but unless the sea track of the airmass shortens to a stricter northerly, or the advection winds increase, then there may be a lot of low-level modification to the wrong side of marginal for sea-level, especially during the day. But we will see.

 

Goodnight.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Su Campu

[jules216]

we really are an atmospheric skip,Atlantic lows race across to reach us then stall over us for days mix out cold air,wish for once they can clear south or south eastwards so we can get a northerly,last 3 winters are really challenging here in west Wicklow,far too much rain and very little dry in between,kids stuck inside,turning in to TV maniacs,no wonder we turn in to drinking nation,its so depressing,I grew up in Slovakia,where we played ice hockey on frozen lakes,bobsleighed all day outside,spend nearly as much time outside in winter as in summer,here we do same all year,watching Tv,shopping centres,ball centres,all indoor,you see no one walking around,every one in car or in house,was waiting in GP other day out of 10 people 9 were pecking on their iPhones,no one talking to each other,

cyborg generation,sorry for my mini moan,don't want to offend anyone personally

Edited January 9, 2016 by jules216

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

The models are still a mess then Gfs especially,  I had thought we would have seen some resolution by this morning but still a lot of uncertainty.  And all the time GP's torpedo is still trundling on, we will see but I am still quietly confident

[Weegaz]

complete mess Pom, MetO have removed all snow symbols at my location right through to Thursday now although still projected a cold week ahead with not much rain.

just shows how extremely difficult it is to forecast anything for the uk and Ireland but the MetO have done well this year and last imo.

[ronan]

Have missed 3 runs now and couldn't be bothered going through all the crap in the MT so I will hold off for the 12z this evening. FI seems to be sitting around 72hrs the way the models are handling things but I would say we will know either way in the next few days. Fingers crossed anyway.

Edited January 9, 2016 by ronan

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed lads those automated meto forecasts change every farts end

[Sparky72]

Have been reading and watching in the background. Felt the excitement grow and disappear with everyone else. Looks like cool and rainy followed by brief cold and dry then back to Cool and wet. Usual winter really you'd think we'd be used to it but can always remain hopeful.!

[Neiller22]

Its went the way I thought it would days ago even during the wonder charts im afraid!! cannot see any snow away from hills. Hopefully something better will come along soon

[BornFromTheVoid]

Wednesday evening/night is still looking good for many locations, though the GFS tends to undercook the upper air temps at that kind of range, so the -6s and -7s progged at 850hPa will probably jump a degree or 2 the day around Tuesday.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Kick off point was always pronged for late January and February, the week ahead is just a bonus for me and I am talking about a more dry point of view, that said I am just out of the pool with two happy weans so life is good.  Weather is interesting but not worth getting uptight about.  Anyway who wants to buy an unused toboggan....