Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Got myself a snaw and ice warning for the morn... 

Hopefully get a wee aperitif out of this.

Issued at:  1023 on Thu 7 Jan 2016 Valid from:  1900 on Thu 7 Jan 2016 Valid to:  0900 on Fri 8 Jan 2016

A zone of rain and hill snow will affect Northern Ireland later on Thursday evening before moving into parts of Scotland and northern England during the early hours of Friday. Over ground above 200 to 300 metres snow is expected to accumulate, especially over Scotland where there is also a chance that snow could fall to lower levels for a time. As this rain and snow moves away, especially from Northern Ireland, skies will clear allowing temperatures to drop and icy patches to form on untreated surfaces. Please be aware that rain, snow and icy patches could lead to some disruption to travel.

[snowy owl]

Grey and damp at times again today but not as bad yet as i had expected (although warnings for part of the afternoon still exist!)

I have been trawling through the MT (now slightly addicted) but looks like the potential is still very much there but lots of slight adjustments to come i fear. Although Glacier Point does seem to think GFS is underplaying the artic high somewhat.

So snow possible here tomorrow morning that will be nice. Next week who knows but it will be colder that's for sure.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

ECM ensembles surface T for London are funny.

At least one member hitting what -17 C there. 

Mean coming close to zero C on average more realistic!

[Hairy Celt]

15 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

One way or another we'll be snowed in, either the real deal or six foot drifts of toys as if someone gave Toys r Us a good shakedown. 

The Black Isle is joining in the wetfest this morning - tipping it down... looks temporary though and we have just had a week of very little ppn at all compared to further east.

I haven't tried to figure out the detail of what next week may bring in terms of ice days, falling/lying snow, cloud cover, etc., but it will be good to see a colder regime again.  Been mild and boring now for too long.

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, 101_North said:

Met warnings for Friday morning aren't what I wanted to see - keeping the snow risk further south and nowt for the Lothians. Perhaps a blessing in disguise though as a Met warning is usually a sure sign of disappointment! 

The risk of heavy snow for the south seems to have lessened since earlier, the precip looks a bit patchy on the latest Euro4 and GFS. Fingers crossed for a reupgrade and a continuation northwards for you lot up there

Edit: Sunday's rain warning for the north of England looks suspiciously as if it's waiting for a sister warning for Scotland, no way the weather will tuck perfectly along the border like that  

Edited January 7, 2016 by CatchMyDrift

[Hawesy]

Probably the worst day of the week here (and that's saying something). Rain has turned heavier otherwise it's the same old drudgery with low cloud, grey semi-light and a nagging easterly wind. Flooding has closed the main road between St Andrews and Dundee so moaning about the weather is a popular topic.

On the upside tomorrow looks much better and we should get to see the sun for the first time this year! :-)

[Ravelin]

Still tipping it down here, getting heavier if anything as the day goes on. Worse inland too, by my calculations Aboyne has had >31mm of rain since midnight, all of which will likely be flowing straight into the river systems again.

[tempestwatch]

The preospects for the next few weeks looks potentially very good if you take the MT comments on board. Could be bitterly cold here from the weekend onwards. Anything is better than this drowned dog wet mush

 

[Northernlights]

3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

The Black Isle is joining in the wetfest this morning - tipping it down... looks temporary though and we have just had a week of very little ppn at all compared to further east.

I haven't tried to figure out the detail of what next week may bring in terms of ice days, falling/lying snow, cloud cover, etc., but it will be good to see a colder regime again.  Been mild and boring now for too long.

 

Ditto this side of the Firth, now almost completely dark as well and currently 4c

[doctormog]

2 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Still tipping it down here, getting heavier if anything as the day goes on. Worse inland too, by my calculations Aboyne has had >31mm of rain since midnight, all of which will likely be flowing straight into the river systems again.

Yes, things are very worrying across a large swathe of the east and northeast this evening.

[mistyqueen]

Rain stopped, skies clearing, temp currently 3.6c. Very nice out there just now. Bring on the cauld!

[Ravelin]

21 minutes ago, doctormog said:

Yes, things are very worrying across a large swathe of the east and northeast this evening.

Well I decided, like everyone apparently, to bail out of work early and I'm now sat in a stationary traffic  jam trying to get out of Dyce. 

Got a flood warning out for Don at Kemnay, first I've ever known. It's for edge of my estate but my house should be OK as it's a bit higher and further from river (but not by much). 

[doctormog]

Just now, Ravelin said:

Well I decided, like everyone apparently, to bail out of work early and I'm now sat in a stationary traffic  jam trying to get out of Dyce. 

Got a flood warning out for Don at Kemnay, first I've ever known. It's for edge of my estate but my house should be OK as it's a bit higher and further from river (but not by much). 

Safe travels and I hope your journey is not too bad. There is an insane amount of surface water on many of the roads (and nothing in the news nor on TrafficScotland - do we not exist/matter up here?)

[GoldenJackel]

I have been stuck in the queue trying to get out of Dyce for over an hour, moved less than a mile I would say. In all directions the roads seem to be flooded. I have never seen anything like this before and it's still currently raining heavily. 

[Benvironment]

The scene in Perthshire this morning, on the Isla. The roads were horrendous!

[101_North]

Latest Euro4 looks like an upgrade in terms of ppn intensity tomorrow morning with the risk of snow back for higher parts of the Lothians.

Edited January 7, 2016 by 101_North

[Richard Taylor]

So no trains from Aberdeen north or south.

Most roads around Aberdeen/shire flooded to a greater or lesser degree - & now.....

All flights grounded at Aberdeen due to a hole opening up in the runway!!!

You couldn't make it up.....

 

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

2 hours ago, doctormog said:

Safe travels and I hope your journey is not too bad. There is an insane amount of surface water on many of the roads (and nothing in the news nor on TrafficScotland - do we not exist/matter up here?)

I see loads of stuff on Traffic Scotland Twitter.

I have to say their main website with the map isn't that great for 'current incidents'. A68 has been closed in the past for thing like accidents and often opened again before it even made it to that site!

Maybe down here in the borders we don't exist either. 

---

Oh and maybe some folk don't realise, but Traffic Scotland are only responsible for A or M class trunk roads. They do tweet stuff about other minor roads in towns and cities, often re-tweeting from councils who are responsible for these.

https://trafficscotland.org/about/

They retweeted this earlier:

And this just now:

 

Sounds bad. Stay safe all.

Hope the waters don't reach your estate Ravelin.

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by scottish skier

[Norrance]

The only difference here this afternoon is that the rain is coming in from the West rather than the East. A little colder too at 3C. Lots of flooding about though nothing as drastic as in the countryside to the North.

[doctormog]

Well there's little point in having a website that claims to be up to date if you have to check/trawl through a Twitter page. The BBC can post the updates on the news site so I would expect TS to do the same.  The Twitter feed is definitely better I agree but the website should really be more informative (otherwise it is not fit for purpose).

Anyway, on to more important issues and there are now reports of care homes in Aberdeen (Persley) and beyond being evacuated. A vile night and the rain continues. 

[Guest]

Your best bet for road and flood updates is your local council via Facebook or their website. I've found Scottish Borders Council pretty good recently. 

[doctormog]

Actually the ACC Facebook site is not that great, Aberdeenshire tends to be more formative for that region and the picture does not look good (this is from a link on the FB page https://online.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/apps/news/release.aspx?newsID=4326). 

For anyone in the NE a really good, rapidly updated and informative FB page is the one from FUBAR https://www.facebook.com/FubarNews 

Edited January 7, 2016 by doctormog

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

14 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I've found Scottish Borders Council pretty good recently. 

Too quick out with the gritters / ploughs for my liking.

Although pot hole filling on the back roads has improved massively since 2012. Before it was like they'd been carpet bombed.

T dropping away here. 4.4 C and a bit of a breeze. Liking the EURO4 for a bit of winter driving the morn.

ECM 12Z decent enough too for keeping our block in the medium to longer term.

Guy on BBC radio 4 on the way home was talking about the pattern change leading to cold and potentially this recurring with a deal of confidence.

Edited January 7, 2016 by scottish skier

[Ravelin]

Well it took me 1.5hrs to get 12 miles home, the first hr of that trying to get out of Dyce. Never have I seen, or driven through floods on roads that were that deep. Hit one on Kintore to Kemnay road that I barely got through even in my 4x4 (apparently road was closed, or closed shortly afterwards, but no signage I saw).

River Don is currently  slightly higher than its max at the start of the week. 

[Hairy Celt]

On 06/01/2016 at 8:41 PM, CatchMyDrift said:

 

Seeing as most of the population over 60 and lots of folk over 40 don't use Twitter or Facebook, it seems pretty poor that those are the media used for getting info out to people.  My mother is reasonably ok with using the internet but at 85 she's not going to start Twitter or Facebook.  Neither am I for that matter!