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Paul

Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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Cold indeed, and that is unlikely to change but the detail will, the GFS looks a dog dinner with the amount of shortwaves that are in there. There does seem to be a trend emerging that any height rises towards Greenland won't last and the Northerly will probably topple but how quick this will happen will of course be a question that will remain unanswered for now. 

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Oh dear, what a mess....attempted Greenland height rises and strong Euro heights

 

gfsnh-0-360.png?18

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Oh dear, what a mess....attempted Greenland height rises and strong Euro heights

 

gfsnh-0-360.png?18

Pretty organised vortex there to be fair too. Would doubt future frames would have much interest around Greenland if there were some. Still, deep into FI I won't be concerned for now.

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Pretty organised vortex there to be fair too. Would doubt future frames would have much interest around Greenland if there were some. Still, deep into FI I won't be concerned for now.

 

Being completely honest, today has been a bit of a low in terms of any split vortex trend- the trend we saw yesterday. I'm not in panic mode for now but I do get the feeling that if we fail to hop on the feedback loop now, we could be waiting a long time to see another opportunity.

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This morning'd gfs still on track for a cold weekend. Certainly some potential for snow on Saturday perhaps more inclined to the west and east but the detail will have to wait a couple of days. Pointless speculating now.

Charts weatherbell

post-12275-0-27809300-1447736619_thumb.p

post-12275-0-75550100-1447736625_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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Somehow the ECM plucks a repeat performance out of the locker - T168-T216 see yet another northerly behind a trough from the NW. Well it was the first onto this weekend's cold snap ... will have to wait to see if has got cold snap no.2 correct as well!

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Blimey hardly any posts this morning!!for a minute i actually thought this weeks northerly had been completely cancelled lol!!!this evenings runs are gona be interesting reason being one thing i have noticed is the 12z runs have been more amplified in general than the 00z runs for some reason i dont know!!!

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ECM snatches victory from the jaws of defeat thanks to that Eastern Canadian trough giving us a quick follow on cold snap. Difficult to be sure where we would go from that position if it were to verify. My money would be on PM airmass for a bit followed by a window of opportunity for further height rises to our NW thereafter. All pie in the sky though as much to be resolved before we get there.

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Somehow the ECM plucks a repeat performance out of the locker - T168-T216 see yet another northerly behind a trough from the NW. Well it was the first onto this weekend's cold snap ... will have to wait to see if has got cold snap no.2 correct as well!

I believe GFS was on to it first, showing height rises to NW,  whilst ECM has performed better overall, verification wise

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For those interesting, the delayed GEFS (ensembles) upgrade (and it's a pretty major upgrade) will be going live on 2nd December according to NCEP. 

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The snow row for Saturday on the London GFS ens is up-to 12 now out of 23

 

gefsens850london0.png?cb=61

 

Aberdeen is up-to 20 now for the 21st so a high chance of snow based on this run

 

gefsens850aberdeen0.png?cb=61

 

Inverness is at 19 for the 21st

 

gefsens850inverness0.png?cb=61

 

A bit further south Liverpool and Newcastle are on 18 for the 21st

 

gefsens850newcastle0.png?cb=61gefsens850liverpool0.png?cb=61

 

So based on this run anywhere from Liverpool north has a good chance of seeing some snow this weekend further south the chance is lower but for high ground you never know

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For those interesting, the delayed GEFS (ensembles) upgrade (and it's a pretty major upgrade) will be going live on 2nd December according to NCEP.

Ha!

I thought they went live last month!

I've been taking the GEFS seriously for weeks!

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Since it's been mentioned but nobody has posted the charts, here's the ECM's attempt at a brief reload...

 

ECH1-216.GIF?17-12

 

ECH0-216.GIF?17-12

 

And now onto the 6z GFS, to see what that brings us.

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Ha!

I thought they went live last month!

I've been taking the GEFS seriously for weeks!

 

It was all set to go live but got pulled at the last minute as it wasn't signed off by the director apparently. 

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Looking at that last chart this morning from UKMO, its appears to be close to ECM output. Could produce a reload of a more direct Arctic attack for a time. We have to close look at the low pressure development in that time span between Iceland and Greenland. The UKMO shows this formation in the latter stages of their latest model run in that region of interest and more importantly with a associated upper trough. This low should deepen in The Norwegian Sea and allow a flood gate of Arctic air for a short time. Beyond that, who knows what can develop , but an interest end to the month for weather watches. Glad to see some snow heading my way ( Eastern Alps )  this weekend. Getting excited now.

 C

 

post-3489-0-42981300-1447754678_thumb.gi

 

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Reload!!

 

h500slp.png

 

h500slp.png

 

h500slp.png

 

h500slp.png

 

:D

Edited by pip22

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GFS 06Z - not a million miles from the ECM, but I'm guessing this one is cold rather than wintry, away from northern hills.

 

gfs-0-222.png?6

 

Interesting trends though, I haven't seen any output get the Azores High back into Europe - as long as it stays there and the jet doesn't fire up too much, there's always the risk of a short northerly outbreak.

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The 6z GFS shows colder -11 850's push into Scotland for the weekend, With a higher Snow risk further South. Detail all subject to change of course..

post-12319-0-51477100-1447756988_thumb.p

post-12319-0-89856900-1447756998_thumb.p

post-12319-0-94901600-1447757009_thumb.p

Edited by Polar Maritime

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