Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

[offerman]

Hi, Please could you show me where you find these charts as i could not locate them in the charts drop down list.

Thanks.

This morning's gfs run is a classic example of a very mobile NW/SW flow featuring the interplay between the Pm and Tm airmasses via systems travelling ENE to the north and the HP to the SW/SE. Illustrated by 850mb temps of -5C on the 4th and +11C on the 4th!!. Three charts picked at random as an illustration

Charts courtesy weatherbell

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to show a pretty Wintry week for the North with 80cm snow forecast over the Mountain Ranges in Scotland and down to lower levels at times especially over the next few days, As a cold W/NW Pm flow continues to drag cool air over the UK. Next week shows a continuation of cool/unsettled shots inter-spread by a few slightly milder days, But these more exclusive for the South as the North stops on the cool side. Another cold shot again for weeks end, As a complicated set of Lows spin in from the N/W turning a more Northerly flow pushing cooler air South with frosts. A notable Northerly continues to show out in the run for the weekend 12/13th..

Edited November 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

Hi, Please could you show me where you find these charts as i could not locate them in the charts drop down list.

Thanks.

 

 

The weatherbell charts Knocker uses you have to pay for

 

meteociel has a wide range of free charts - http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

[nick sussex]

Todays outputs are extremely underwhelming in terms of wintry potential in the medium term however in the shorter term for the far north and Scotland some interest as a series of waves run into some colder air. A quite marked difference across the UK with much milder conditions to the south and more of a festive feel especially for Scotland.

 

In the medium term its only the GFS which offers a glimmer the rest are much flatter and the ECM has reverted back to its flat as a pancake upstream pattern.

 

The glimmer still comes under the straw clutching category because this doesn't have any support from the other operational runs.Its really in relation to events upstream within T144hrs, the GFS has been playing with more dig sw of troughing in the ne of Canada, this forces the Azores high further north, there is some support for this in the GEFS.

 

The ECM ensembles do have a cluster that likely support this, the ensemble spreads do show a large dispersion at T144hrs to the west of the UK.

 

Effectively we're trying to scrape some interest although likely to be shortlived, so you can see the fact that I'm highlighting this is a bit like getting to the buffet table and seeing all the poached salmon and prawns have gone and just some mingy old coleslaw and bargain sausage rolls left!

 

Towards days 9 and 10 the ECM ensembles have a small cluster of much colder solutions for De Bilt, this would be the salmon and prawns!

 

Unlikely given the operationals aren't interested but we live in hope!

[johnholmes]

More straw clutching for deep long lasting cold, rather than enjoying the models in the near time frame with wind, rain, snow, frost all likely in a good part of the UK.

ah well, it takes all sorts.

Just to cheer those cold seekers up-the anomaly charts show no sign of anything more significant than the next 24-96 hours showing on the synoptic models. That will take us into the end of the 2nd week in December.

I'll get my coat!

[nick sussex]

More straw clutching for deep long lasting cold, rather than enjoying the models in the near time frame with wind, rain, snow, frost all likely in a good part of the UK.

ah well, it takes all sorts.

Just to cheer those cold seekers up-the anomaly charts show no sign of anything more significant than the next 24-96 hours showing on the synoptic models. That will take us into the end of the 2nd week in December.

I'll get my coat!

If that's in reply to my post where did I say long lasting cold? I merely mentioned a possible shortlived episode, and some of the ECM ensembles had a much colder cluster which I said was unlikely to happen. In future please read my posts properly before making snipy comments!

[Methuselah]

If that's in reply to my post where did I say long lasting cold? I merely mentioned a possible shortlived episode, and some of the ECM ensembles had a much colder cluster which I said was unlikely to happen. In future please read my posts properly before making snipy comments!

It's obvious it's not aimed at you, Nick; clearly, it's not aimed at anyone...

[nick sussex]

It's obvious it's not aimed at you, Nick; clearly, it's not aimed at anyone...

It came after my post and I don't see who else it could have been aimed at and as for the "it takes all sorts" bit yet more condescending claptrap. I'll leave it at that, people can read my post and make their own minds up.

[bluearmy]

Bit surprised that there aren't more colder members on the London ECM ens. After all, the chances of blocking over s England through week 2 seem quite high.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well  i see  the weather teasing  the  coldies after  dec11  of a possible  short  cold snap  coming!!!

[Cloud 10]

GEFS and GEM wanting to move the PV away from Greenland for Mid-December with some strong looking Canadian height anomalies maybe allowing for some meatier NW/N attacks for the UK,much like the 06z op run.

 

>>>>>

[Rocheydub]

It came after my post and I don't see who else it could have been aimed at and as for the "it takes all sorts" bit yet more condescending claptrap. I'll leave it at that, people can read my post and make their own minds up.

I personally didn't see it as aimed at you, but then again, I didn't write it!

It is very hard to disagree with what he said though, there is no significant chance of decent cold setting in, at our locality, in the near or medium term, if you use the NWP as a guide... Despite the upbeat nature of some of the posters here...

If people are getting model fatigue and it's not even December yet, it's going to be a long winter! Do what I usually do... Take a break from all NWP and this site, come back in a few days, and who knows, maybe there'll be an uptick in prospects for real cold!

PS. Please stay Nick, your posts are ones that I thoroughly enjoy!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Only glimmer of hope at moment for us coldies is possible vortex displacement to Siberia which may allow us to tap into some colder air come Mid Dec into Xmas.....shown on later stages of GFS 06z op....I do love the Sat 12zs whilst watching footyâ„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸â„ï¸

And mid Dec is a long way away.  A lot can and imo will develop as we come to that period and the GFS deep FI liking of ridge in Atlantic and Trough to our east bringing cold northerly flow.....keep watching as I don't think its Pie in the Sky.  Before that, we have what we have which imo is not uninteresting weather

 

BFTP

Edited November 28, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[damianslaw]

Lots of variety being shown in the models longer term.. to be expected really.

 

In the short term -  a north / south divide, draw a line roughly from Morecambe Bay to Teeside, north of this slightly colder than normal weather for this time of year (average max here is about 7 or 8 degrees), wintry for Scotland, south of this line milder than normal, but not significantly so. Overall very standard fayre for what is the most 'westerly' period of the year.

 

As we move through first part of December, there does appear to be an increasing signal for heights to influence things from the south, so perhaps a more settled spell at least in southern parts and a continuation of the fairly mild theme.

 

Longer term - much will depend on the position and strength of the Jetstream as ever, if we do see a slight weakening then every chance we might see a window for mid atlantic heights joining forces with the azores high and with the strong PV, this could see a shift to a more NW-SE tracking jet, very plausible evolution. We are already seeing signals the jet is wanting to take a more southerly path and the effect of secondary low development to the NW anchoring down on high pressure trying to ridge up from the south again (tomorrow and Monday - will see a marked temp divide between north and south) - its not quite normal service it seems this year in this respect. People's eyes should be alert to the developments over the next 48 hours which have killed off the tropical maritime/ azores high interplay from stealing the show... when the background state i.e. El Nino and strength of PV would suggest they should be..

[northwestsnow]

GFS finally shuts down the Atlantic train in FI with a cold north westerly as pressure rises across the N Atlantic.

[Liam J]

Although not completely it looks like the GFS is falling more into line with the bullish and very consistent ECM, which has barely deviated at all from what it's been showing for many days now, it's not top dog for nothing! 

[Duane S.]

More hints of some interest mid-month as the PV moves away, allowing height rises to our NW. I think we are going to see the models play about with this a lot in the coming days, leading to some interesting FI chart output!

I find this trend interesting, not for once a toasty max but a very tepid min forecast.

[karyo]

Although not completely it looks like the GFS is falling more into line with the bullish and very consistent ECM, which has barely deviated at all from what it's been showing for many days now, it's not top dog for nothing! 

Exactly! This is evident in the absence of the high pressure ridge for next week which the GFS had to some extend up to this morning.

[lorenzo]

Glad this one is firing up the GIN corridor !

 

ECM firing up with some impressive Rapid cyclogenesis fuelled via strong temp gradient.

 

At 144 - nothing to see here, 24 hours later...

 

[ukpaul]

Much more made of the high pressure over Europe by ECM this evening, moreso than the GFS by far. 

 

Edited November 28, 2015 by ukpaul

[TSNWK]

Much more made of the high pressure over Europe by ECM this evening, moreso than the GFS by far. 

 

Txt book vortex to the northwest, pressure high over Europe.. Could be locked in for while, with winds wafting up from the southwest. Long way too cold at he moment.. I will safely predict if I may be so bold an above average running CET for December by 15th.

[ukpaul]

Txt book vortex to the northwest, pressure high over Europe.. Could be locked in for while, with winds wafting up from the southwest. Long way too cold at he moment.. I will safely predict if I may be so bold an above average running CET for December by 15th.

 

That's just one frame, if we look at the long term mean via the GFS as posted earlier then the PV shifts from Canada and Greenland and towards the pole and Northern Russia. It takes time so, yes, it has its affect until mid month but it's a precursor to something much more unpredictable.

[knocker]

The main interest on the ECM, apart from some nasty depressions running the Denmark Strait way, is the little low to the south west that tracks NE into northern France

 

[John Badrick]

Txt book vortex to the northwest, pressure high over Europe.. Could be locked in for while, with winds wafting up from the southwest. Long way too cold at he moment.. I will safely predict if I may be so bold an above average running CET for December by 15th.

yes it is Bold and a knee jerk reaction to one run (sorry mods)

Edited November 28, 2015 by John Badrick

[knocker]

The anomalies this evening are all on the same page. I would suggest the NOAA is somewhere between the GEFS and ecm regarding the European HP. The former tending to ridge more Scandinavia way and the ecm a trifle flatter. The orientation of this will dictate the influence of the surface HP and thus to a certain extent how much the NE tracking systems will impinge on the north of the UK. At the moment it looks a reasonable bet that certainly the lower half of Britain may get some more settled weather towards the end of the ten day period.

 

In the ext period both the GEFS and ecm relax the Greenland vortex although maintaining a weak trough Iceland and go for a westerly flow