bluearmy Posted November 24, 2015 Location: st albans Location: st albans Share Posted November 24, 2015 Interesting from the GFS det. this evening, as it effectively changes the angle of attack on the vortex by using a powerful Scandi Block that emerges from the Euro High in about 10 days time. Meanwhile the ECM det. has reverted to an amplifying Siberian trough - but not nearly as pronounced as it was on it's previous 12z det. run. There's also the threat of the trough over Greenland merging with the one over Siberia, which would be rather unhelpful. To be honest we now have little consensus to base outlooks beyond a week ahead on, so we're left looking out for anything interesting with in the next 7 days. As it is, I can see the threat of copious rainfall amounts and very strong winds for the far north Sun/Mon but with a lot of uncertainty there as well... there really isn't much on offer that can be discussed without heavy use of caveats! Just some spells of rain and fluctuating temperatures, all within the usual range for late Nov and early Dec. Never mind though, we can save our energy for when it does kick off - assuming it does. The gfs op idea of a developing ridge to our East supported on the gefsp. Infact the parallel control is a beauty. The eps also raise heights but not as far north as the gefsp. Still little sign on the NH profile of the gefsp mean of any low anomolys on this side of the NH latte stages of week 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MPG Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Yatton, South of Bristol Location: Yatton, South of Bristol Popular Post Share Posted November 24, 2015 A few of us (mainly knocker) kept getting slated for suggesting a west to south west dominant period, even although the evidence was there to back it up. No matter how much 'potential' a set up may appear to have for a cold period, on our little island 90% of the time it doesn't happen Posting chart after chart of anomolies showing zonal is easy, spotting the trends to a pattern change within the charts is where the skill lies. Members attemping this should be credited, this is how other members can learn what to look for. 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post blizzard81 Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire Popular Post Share Posted November 24, 2015 (edited) I suppose it is the problem with modern day society when everybody wants something NOW! People have no patience anymore. Just a little note - we are still 7 days away from the start of winter. Also, in how many of the infamous cold winters did the cold set in before the last third of December? Edited November 24, 2015 by blizzard81 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methuselah Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine... Location: Beccles, Suffolk. Share Posted November 24, 2015 Posting chart after chart of anomolies showing zonal is easy, spotting the trends to a pattern change within the charts is where the skill lies. Members attemping this should be credited, this is how other members can learn what to look for. It is when that's what they are showing, aye; but it's not so easy when we're stuck in a middle of big freeze...that's when 'trend-spotters' get castigated. Far better, I think, to discuss what the models are actually saying, than spin yarns about what the outlook might be like - if this, that and the other were being shown instead? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Mair Snaw Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl Weather Preferences: SNAW Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl Popular Post Share Posted November 24, 2015 I suppose it is the problem with modern day society when everybody wants something NOW! People have no patience anymore. Just a little note - we are still 7 days away from the start of winter. Also, in how many of the infamous cold winters did the cold set in before the last third of December? Exactly... i seem to remember the December of 2012 at the start it was toys out of prams.... then THAT ECM happened but then it didnt happen... we had a really mild period over xmas and the new year and just when everybody was ready to throw the towel in, AND LETS NOT FORGET THE INFAMOUS WTF MOMENT FROM IAN BROWN..... well the rest of 2013 right up to end of March!!!!! we all know what happened then... so i guess we just never can tell whats round the corner as you say blizzard81 still 7 days away from the start of winter and already some seem to be calling it over before its begun... 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur62 Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft) Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft) Share Posted November 24, 2015 I suppose it is the problem with modern day society when everybody wants something NOW! People have no patience anymore. Just a little note - we are still 7 days away from the start of winter. Also, in how many of the infamous cold winters did the cold set in before the last third of December? Spot on. We have to be realistic and accept what the models are showing which is slightly above temps for next 7-10 days at least with some wet spells interspersed with some cooler pm air(mainly for Northern UK). All pretty much standard fayre really. From memory DR Cohen doesn't expect much change for most of Europe till late December and Fergie's posts indicate that is what Longer range is showing as well with no cold spell showing atm. Things can change (and I, as many on this forum hope they do change for the colder!!) but realistically the P word is required atm.As others have said winter hasn't even started yet!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
damianslaw Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Windermere 120m asl Location: Windermere 120m asl Share Posted November 24, 2015 Mmm some conflicting signals this evening - Jetstream forecast doesn't support strong central euro high development, it is set to power through the country but drop SE into Europe i.e. preventing height development here, and indeed would support height development to our NE, so the GFS 12Z has some merit in its theme perhaps of heights developing to the NE, but probably not the easterly. The models this evening seem to be going with what you might expect longer term given the El Nino background state, the default pattern, but we need to keep an eye on developments over eastern USA seaboard, hints of further amplification which would support the above scenario i.e. a broadly westerly/northwesterly pattern with possible height development to the NE.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post knocker Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Camborne Location: Camborne Popular Post Share Posted November 24, 2015 (edited) Posting chart after chart of anomolies showing zonal is easy, spotting the trends to a pattern change within the charts is where the skill lies. Members attemping this should be credited, this is how other members can learn what to look for. Actually the GEFs anomalies tonight didn't indicate zonal but that's a mere detail. Attempting to spot a trend indicating a pattern change is admirable and I wasn't aware that I, or anybody else decries this, but very often this 'attempting to spot a trend', is an euphemism for what route can we find to the next cold spell at the expense of a more objective analysis. So rather than learn other members get seriously misled. I make no apologies for using the anomalies because if you don't get the upper air nailed within reason you've got nowt chance with the surface. Now given the GEFs has been posted already a quick look at the ecm at T240 and T360 and the NOAA.8-14. Comparing all three, the GEFS, ecm and NOAA, I think a fair assessment can be made of the trend, if not the detail within that trend. One can also note a typical upstream Nino pattern Edited November 24, 2015 by knocker 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucka Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Manchester Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples! Location: Manchester Share Posted November 24, 2015 GFS 18z getting "amped"? Shame about ECM 12z, we would of been getting a trend going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravelin Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Tullynessle/Westhill Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry Location: Tullynessle/Westhill Share Posted November 24, 2015 (edited) GFS 18z getting "amped"? Shame about ECM 12z, we would of been getting a trend going. Not sure I believe where it's going with this one.... Edited November 24, 2015 by Ravelin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiohead Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Ireland Location: Ireland Share Posted November 24, 2015 Not sure I believe where it's going with this one.... Same here. It's dependent on a deep low which will no doubt have a different position and depth on the next run, given how far away that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur62 Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft) Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft) Share Posted November 24, 2015 Cohen latest http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Thanks for this Greenland. A very interesting read and very similar to his last update which is not great news for cold lovers for December not only in the UK but also most of Central/Northern Europe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucka Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Manchester Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples! Location: Manchester Share Posted November 24, 2015 (edited) Same here. It's dependent on a deep low which will no doubt have a different position and depth on the next run, given how far away that is. No doubt the details will be different run to run but there is at least some consistency in signal to drop a trough into the Atlantic and amplify the pattern. That is all we can really look and hope for at the moment and then worry about where and if any blocking will take hold later. ECM ensembles (just a couple more colder runs appearing in FI) And gratuitous GFS 384 Edited November 24, 2015 by Mucka 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravelin Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Tullynessle/Westhill Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry Location: Tullynessle/Westhill Share Posted November 24, 2015 Well, well, it may have taken a bit of a different route but the 18Z GFS also ends up with a Scandinavian high... Will it be there in the morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheshire Freeze Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Crewe, Cheshire Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes Location: Crewe, Cheshire Share Posted November 24, 2015 (edited) Well hello GFS 18z.... Building blocks start early in FI and build to produce this in the last frame... Now what was I saying the other day about easterlys having the potential to pop up unexpectedly..... Edited November 24, 2015 by CreweCold 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bobbydog Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl Popular Post Share Posted November 24, 2015 just looked at the model output. just read through the thread. anyone fancy a pint?... 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucka Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Manchester Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples! Location: Manchester Share Posted November 24, 2015 just looked at the model output. just read through the thread. anyone fancy a pint?... 2011-08-22_scot_5572.jpg GFS has had enough already! Unfortunately no support at all for GFS 18z op even among its own ensembles. Waiting for FI to see if they at least show some amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMU Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 That is what you call a slam dunk easterly a la feb 1991... S 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liam J Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Carlisle, Cumbria Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :) Location: Carlisle, Cumbria Share Posted November 24, 2015 Unfortunately the GFS OP has no support for it's evolution from T192 onwards... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheshire Freeze Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Crewe, Cheshire Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes Location: Crewe, Cheshire Share Posted November 24, 2015 Unfortunately the GFS OP has no support for it's evolution from T192 onwards... gfs226.png If you think the ensembles will pick up an easterly at 192 hrs + you're in cuckoo land It's unlikely to verify, very unlikely even. However, as long as an op run shows it, it's certainly possible! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucka Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Manchester Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples! Location: Manchester Share Posted November 24, 2015 (edited) So no support for the Op as far as detail is concerned out to end of hi res but out to day 10 around 50% of members show some form of worthwhile ridging toward Scandinavia. That doesn't mean 50% are on their way to showing an Easterly, just 50% that want ti amplify the pattern and give us a shot at developing a more interesting pattern into second week of December. Edited November 24, 2015 by Mucka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheshire Freeze Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Crewe, Cheshire Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes Location: Crewe, Cheshire Share Posted November 24, 2015 So no support for the Op as far as detail is concerned out to end of hi res but out to day 10 around 50% of members show some form of worthwhile ridging toward Scandinavia. That doesn't mean 50% are on their way to showing an Easterly, just 50% that want ti amplify the pattern and give us a shot at developing a more interesting pattern into second week of December. Control certainly tries its best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mucka Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Manchester Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples! Location: Manchester Share Posted November 24, 2015 (edited) Control certainly tries its best I really hope we get to see such tasty charts popping up in the 72h time frame this Winter. Look at the Atlantic ridge building behind too. nom nom nom. Not saying GFS ensembles are progressive in FI but from this To this in 36h lol Edited November 24, 2015 by Mucka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geordiesnow Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Morecambe Location: Morecambe Share Posted November 24, 2015 At this stage, I would be wary regarding the jet positioning for the medium term as only yesterday, the UKMO was showing a more cooler zonal flow than today's run is showing so whilst it looks a very mobile pattern at the moment, we could see changes in just whether it be a more cooler Atlantic set up or a milder one, today's runs suggest it be more the latter as we head into next week but this could very well change. Also keep an eye on that rapidly deepening low pressure system for Sunday into Monday, both the GFS and ECM show this however not really directing the UK but a different positioning in the jet could well alter this. Its too early to worry about cold and snow prospects at this stage, plenty of time for the outlook to change although the GFS 18Z FI run shows it can change if it comes together but my main focus is most certainly seeing whether we will see more in the way of a milder Atlantic or a cooler one and whether that deep low will affect the UK or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bobbydog Posted November 24, 2015 Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl Popular Post Share Posted November 24, 2015 That is what you call a slam dunk easterly a la feb 1991... image.jpg S and about as likely as the russians advertising 'turkish delight'... 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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