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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

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In house model points to SSW, but he does provide caveats re: the false positives of the model, the increased WAF is likely for December which provides interest.

 

From last night to tonight there are some strong variations in output - last night the shearing vs formal split of a daughter vortice, not so prevalent tonight.

 

post-7292-0-97416200-1447696115_thumb.pn

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I guess it's high levels of shagwell's entropy. What model has performed best at the 8+ day range recenlty??

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I guess it's high levels of shagwell's entropy. What model has performed best at the 8+ day range recenlty??

 

Euro

 

cordieoff_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

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I guess it's high levels of shagwell's entropy. What model has performed best at the 8+ day range recenlty??

Apologies to Mods for OT, but what is Shagwell's Entropy (he asks suspecting a trap!)?

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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Apologies to Mods for OT, but what is Shagwell's Entropy (he asks suspecting a trap!)?

Maybe he knows a gal called 'Shannon' .....

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I guess it's high levels of shagwell's entropy. What model has performed best at the 8+ day range recenlty??

Don't you mean Shannon Entropy?

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-9 uppers into Northern Scotland on Friday on this evening's ECM.

 

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Just a side note whilst the ECM trundles out.The latest meto further outlook update shows that cold might not be that far away!!!

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Colder air sweeping south across all parts by Saturday

 

ECU0-120.GIF?16-0

 

It will feel raw on the east coast with some strong north easterly winds

 

ECU1-120.GIF?16-0

 

Remaining cold on Sunday

 

ECU0-144.GIF?16-0

 

Strong winds still affecting the SE which will make it feeling even colder

 

ECU1-144.GIF?16-0

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GFS 12z seems more confused than the 06. 

 

It seems intent on generating snow for the east coast of the UK all the way from Scotland down to Kent but I don't remember ever seeing such a thin line materializing all the way down the coast.

 

Right now my gut says we might see a few flakes even as south as Kent over the weekend but it will be incredibly marginal and turn to rain quite quickly after, the cold air just doesn't seem strong enough to push through and take over. 

Hi There! Just going to show you with help from a chart that the gfs is showing "streamers" developing both on East and West coasts as bitterly cold winds travel across relatively warm seas which aids in some amazing convection, these streamers  can produce thunder and lightning ,gusty winds large hail, rain sleet and snow, and even tornadoes! and very persistent for many hours too. You will see that inland areas will see mainly fine sunny conditions ,albeit very cold....Hope that helps :)

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JMA going for something different this evening.

Exiting the low beneath the block instead of riding up its Western flank and exiting

 

JN132-21.GIF?16-12JN144-21.GIF?16-12

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Just a quickie from me, got to travel to Swansea as my dad has been rushed into hospital.  FWIW I think the GFS upgrading the potency of LP systems over the UK between 20-24 like the UKMO is looking right.  Also I think the way it goes on in FI with deep trough and pM air flooding the UK from NNW / N at end of month is also looking right to me.  This leads to cold start to Dec with pM air flooding UK and Ireland.

 

 

 

BFTP

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We lose that strong and cold wind on Monday as pressure begins to rise from the west maybe feeling a tad milder in any sunshine

 

ECU1-168.GIF?16-0ECU0-168.GIF?16-0

 

By the Tuesday we're back into a westerly flow with slightly milder air coming into the far west

 

ECU1-192.GIF?16-0ECU0-192.GIF?16-0

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GEM seems to be the only model going for height rises to our north in FI tonight, looks nice,  with GFS considering it for a short while. Lets hope the GEM has suddenly taken up a role as super model extraordinaire, blitzing the others into a frozen submission.... 

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Typical after giving the ECM a nice build up it comes out with an average latter half of its output! I still think we'll see some changes in the outputs over the coming days. Before then at least we have some colder weather to discuss and the chance of a little snow for some areas.

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i know its a long way off and a bit of cherry picking  but it nice looking, im more worred  about barney heading towards  us on tuesday  could get a bit nasty  down south on tuesday

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Any updates about tomorrow's severe gales?

 

The Midlands (well, around here) rarely get winds of 60mph, so it could cause a huge amount of damage and chaos.

 

We're all understandably looking towards the weekend, but there's something extreme just 24 hours away?

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The one positive I take from the latter stages of tonight's ECM run is the fact that the main chunk of vortex is situated slightly to our north east as opposed to our north west. As long as I keep seeing this in future outputs the more confident I will become about a cold start to December.

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