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Captain Shortwave

South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

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Wow did the last thread really last that long? So a fresh start with winter just around the corner.

For a start I should probably get back into a more forecasting role on here as I have been a little lazy over the past months (the weather hasn't helped). So here goes...

 

Monday

gfs-0-30.png?6

A moderate to fresh west/south west wind

A mostly cloud day, a band of patchy rain will push east/south east during the morning. There will be some brighter spells at times though. It will however turn wet during the evening and the secondary system sitting to the west of Ireland moves in.

Temperatures

13-15C, but these will drop during the afternoon, though still milder than average.

 

Tuesday

gfs-0-54.png?6

Fresh west/south west wind again.

It will probably start dry as we sit between the rain from Monday night and the next one moving in. It will turn wet and increasingly windy during the afternoon.

Temperatures - 14-17C

 

Wednesday

gfs-0-84.png?6

Fresh south westerly wind

This day actually looks mostly dry for the most part. There will be some sunshine at time, again cloud amounts will tend to be over the large side.

Temperatures - 13-15C

Turning damp again overnight as a warm front moves in, a very mild night possible on Wednesday

 

Thursday

gfs-0-102.png?6

Moderate to fresh westerly wind, this could be quite gusty along the English channel coasts.

Turning very wet with rain on and off during the day as a waving front continues to plague the southern half of the country.

Temperatures - 13-16C

 

Friday

gfs-0-126.png?6

A manly fresh westerly flow, veering north westerly during the day.

A cold front will slowly clear the south coast as the day progresses allowing cooler air to dig southwards, uncertainty remains over how things will pan out from Friday onwards so treat this with a pinch of salt.

Temperatures - 9-12C

 

Rainfall totals for the next 5 day

144-777UK.GIF?15-6

Around an inch of rain. Most of this coming on Thursday, this suggests we won't do too badly with rainfall tending to be on the light side otherwise.

 

Anyway, with the formalities of this coming working week out of the way, onto the chat and hopefully some more seasonal weather as winter quickly approaches.  :)

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I bought myself a snow machine from Amazon, :good:  should be here by next weekend so I am guaranteed a white winter and Christmas :good: Wasn't very stormy, or very windy, or very wet here :good: 18.5c and sunny :shok::blink2: Don't worry about 'being lazy' CS, the weather is a repetitive load of old crap at the moment. :good:

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I bought myself a snow machine from Amazon, :good:  should be here by next weekend so I am guaranteed a white winter and Christmas :good: Wasn't very stormy, or very windy, or very wet here :good: 18.5c and sunny :shok::blink2: Don't worry about 'being lazy' CS, the weather is a repetitive load of old crap at the moment. :good:

The real stuff or white confetti kind?

I believe the real ones only operate with temperature below -5C? Goodluck with that. :D

Cheers...CS for the new thread it did go all the way back to that hottest July day on record!!

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Another very mild day so far with broken cloud and some sunny intervals. The temperature seems to be around 16/17C across most of the region. 

At least a better effort compared to previous days, well sunshine wise so it does feel better though I suspect the strong wind would temper that.

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Similar here to Matt's conditions over on the Fens.  We did have a couple of very light showers lat morning, and it's been blustery, but not the slate grey with slack winds and continuous drizzle of a week or so ago.

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Been a mostly dry day but cloudy. A few occasional drops falling from the cloud but not really doing much.

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The wind flipped over bubs wendy house, poor tinkerbell had to run for cover and hubs had to rescue bubs chair. Still quite blowy here.

 

Hope it's not like this Christmas week, I'm decorating the wendy house due to the arrival of the Christmas fairies and it would ruin it. 

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Not long back from a true 'blow the cobwebs away' walk around Rye Harbour. High tide with some crazy wind & kite surfers out Camber sands way eating up some huge white horses. Brief glimpses of the sun but mainly dark clouds.

Sorry to hear about the Wendy house Dami hope all have recovered!

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A pretty decent day here, with way more sunshine than I was expecting. Quite windy, yes, but a lot less than November usually throws at us.

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Not long back from a true 'blow the cobwebs away' walk around Rye Harbour. High tide with some crazy wind & kite surfers out Camber sands way eating up some huge white horses. Brief glimpses of the sun but mainly dark clouds.

Sorry to hear about the Wendy house Dami hope all have recovered!

All sorted and tink safely inside the house inside of sitting on the roof.

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Based on GFS 12z

- Interesting feature yielding a potential snowfall for Soutern England albeit it is marginal and I do not expect much or any accumulation more probable to be rain/sleety mix until darkness descends if PPN is still about in the SE. The flow is quite slack very ideal for evaporative cooling (when precipitation does fall at a heavy intensity evaporative cooling can tip the balance from a sleety mix to full on snow rather quickly).

post-19153-0-34164900-1447608300_thumb.p

Parameters look good aside from the temperature more so for the far SE So we may have to depend on the time of day the ppn arrives or it may start off as rain and then as we go into evening fall as snow.

Maxima of 3C in London on Saturday it will feel very cold compared to recent.

post-19153-0-10652100-1447608363_thumb.ppost-19153-0-84505600-1447608354_thumb.p

I think it is worth keeping a eye on despite it being 6 days out. :)

I'm not saying the above will happen but there does seem to be snow opportunities for the south out of this cold spell, not exclusively for the northern uplands - as characterised by the last winter. It is only November!

giphy.gif

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Today's been more like a blustery April day than mid November. Great to be out and about though, with plenty of sunshine and a ridiculously warm 17C. I snapped this chap whilst out on a walk this afternoon and tried to explain he might want to find somewhere to hide up by next weekend!

 

post-20040-0-01218500-1447617751_thumb.j

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Nice to see colder more seasonal weather forecast by the models come Friday.

But after reading through the MOD thread and looking at the charts - away from the north Midlands northwards there isn't snow for our region. A sleety mix at best, that's even if ppn makes it here.

Whilst it's nice to get rid of the Atlantic train I'm afraid northern hills and Scotland getting snow doesn't float my boat and get me excited.

Hoping the models improve for our region, but more likely to restrict snow even further north = history tells us.

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Nice to see colder more seasonal weather forecast by the models come Friday.

But after reading through the MOD thread and looking at the charts - away from the north Midlands northwards there isn't snow for our region. A sleety mix at best, that's even if ppn makes it here.

Whilst it's nice to get rid of the Atlantic train I'm afraid northern hills and Scotland getting snow doesn't float my boat and get me excited.

Hoping the models improve for our region, but more likely to restrict snow even further north = history tells us.

Not necessarily.

Look what XCWeather has for me based on latest GFS 12z data we need to look out for disturbances in the flow and these usually pop up within short notice. This is not the typical PM incursion, it's more substantial.

post-19153-0-43045500-1447620911_thumb.p

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Apart from the interest later next weekend don't get to wrapped up in it yet.. It's nice to see though..

Interest for me is late Tuesday into Wednesday early morning picking up on captains post..

GFS keeps swaying it north south but could be the first notable wind event this winter for us..

post-12648-0-60745000-1447626899_thumb.p

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Just had a power cut, wonder if it is down to the 20mph winds :whistling:

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Just had a power cut, wonder if it is down to the 20mph winds :whistling:

Much stronger than that down here at times.

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Morning gang,

High res coming in now for Tuesday night into Wednesday now..

Not pretty large swathe of 50-60mph even higher in exposed parts for the region..

The low zips across the Midlands at 988 not very low but a tight gradient on the southern flank

The jet also looks very powerful..

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Not looking forward to tuesday night/ wendnesday :( . Today so far it's been dry but very dark cloud, everywhere still looks damp after last night. 

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I've been enjoying the mildness to be honest but also don't mind the odd cold snap and this weekend certainly looks like being just that.

The feel like temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be very interesting, potentially 1-2*c in the breeze. Certainly anywhere in the U.K. around coastline with precipitation falling will want to take a look out the window just incase some sleet falls at least at lower levels.

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:help:  :help:  Storm Barney!

 

Issued at: 
1046 on Mon 16 Nov 2015

Valid from: 
1500 on Tue 17 Nov 2015

Valid to: 
2330 on Tue 17 Nov 2015

West to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales are likely to sweep eastwards across parts of Wales, southern, central and eastern England later on Tuesday. Gusts could reach 60-70 mph inland and possibly 80 mph along exposed coasts, particularly Wales and through the Bristol Channel.

Be aware of the risk of disruption to travel and that gusts of this strength could bring down trees and lead to some damage to weakened structures. A deepening area of low pressure is likely to track east across southern Ireland and then central parts of the UK during Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a swathe of very strong winds potentially developing on the southern flank of the low. At this stage, the worst of the winds are expected to reach West Wales mid to late afternoon, sweeping rapidly eastwards during the evening. There remains a good deal of uncertainty in this evolution and particularly the location of the strongest winds, so this Warning will be kept under review and updated as necessary.

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I BRING YOU A RAMP!

 

uksnowrisk.png

Fabulous darling :rofl:

post-19153-0-35295300-1447678051_thumb.j

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