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Timmytour

Consecutive Years Records

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While there's no question that the latter years have been considerably warmer on average, i came across this little stat which I thought was interesting..

The longest run of consecutive years where the annual mean CET was equal to or greater than 9.5C is 13 in the years between 1997 and 2009

That's not the strange bit....the strange bit is the second longest run.... that is 9 and dates all the way back to the years 1730 to 1739

!730-39 is the third warmest decade on record in terms of aggregate annual mean CETs

Edited by Timmytour
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While there's no question that the latter years have been considerably warmer on average, i came across this little stat which I thought was interesting..

The longest run of consecutive years where the annual mean CET was equal to or greater than 9.5C is 13 in the years between 1997 and 2009

That's not the strange bit....the strange bit is the second longest run.... that is 9 and dates all the way back to the years 1730 to 1739

!730-39 is the third warmest decade on record in terms of aggregate annual mean CETs

 

You get a similar run just looking at the winters of 4.0C or more. The longest run is from 1997/98 to 2008/09, 12 years. The second longest run is the 8 years from 1732/33 to 1739/40.

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You get a similar run just looking at the winters of 4.0C or more. The longest run is from 1997/98 to 2008/09, 12 years. The second longest run is the 8 years from 1732/33 to 1739/40.

A curious time in weather history the decade of 1730-39.

Slightly cheating here (bring in a year earlier) but the three consecutive autumns of 1729 - 1730 and 1731 rank 6h, 4th and 5th in the warmest ever. There's never been even two years in succession since that both rank in the top 10....the closest to such a run of three autumns comes in 2004-05-06 with 23rd, 11th and 1st

Although for the most part the seasons weren't spectacularly warm in themselves during the decade, the winters especially, as you say, were consistently on the mild side.  Between the Spring of 1729 and the autumn of 1739, not one season registers in the top 10% of the coldest seasons.

There are a few periods in history which are similar. But few come to such a spectacular end.....In the six seasons from winter 1739-40 to the Spring of 1741, five register in the top 10% of coldest seasons!!!

Interesting maybe, but 1739 saw a Plinian eruption of a volcano in Japan.  In 2009 there was a Plinian eruption of a volcano in Russia and the winter nearly saw  the end of a similar run of "non cold" seasons which finally did come to an end after nearly 22 years in Spring 2013.

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The stage looks set for this month to be only the eighth November on record to have reached a Mean CET of  9C or greater.   Assuming that turns out to be the case, a safe assumption I'd think, it will mean there have been two such occasions for each century since 1700 and gives the 21st century a long run at becoming the first century to reach three Novembers over 9C

That said, the 19th Century was only three years behind and failed! Its Novembers fell in 1817 and 1818....the only ever time there have been consecutive Novembers above 9C.  1817 was remarkable.  It is, to date, the 7th warmest November on record, yet in the 6 months of the year that preceded it, four are in the top 20 coldest on record for the corresponding month!  And the autumn was colder than average. 

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It's looking like, barring a December that returns a mean CET of around -6C, that 2015 will produce an annual mean CET of above 9c

The most successive years with a mean CET of over 9C is 33. the run ended 60 years ago in 1955, having commenced in 1923.

2010 bought to an end the second longest streak of 23 years and is the only year since 1986 to have been below 9C. But looking at the 20th Century it's interesting to note that there were as many years under 9c in half of the century as there were in the second half....six years in each half.

I wonder if we'll see another five years under 9C before 2051?

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