Winter 2015/16.

[Weather-history]

 

Nice sharp clearance of frontal system

 

 

[The PIT]

Shouldn't we rename this thread the Spring 2016??? Might induce some cold weather.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Shouldn't we rename this thread the Spring 2016??? Might induce some cold weather.

More like "Eternal Autumn 2015, 16 and all years until the next glaciation"

[Summer Sun]

Fergie on twitter hopefully less wet as we move towards mid Jan

Latest WSI update

WSI Europe: Warm/Wet/Windy Pattern to Continue Across Much of Europe

Between January and March 2016, WSI (Weather Services International) is forecasting widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe, with near or slightly below-normal temperatures confined to the UK and Scandinavia (especially in February and March). Wet and windy weather is expected to continue, especially from the western mainland northeastward, while drier and less windy conditions will persist across SE Europe.

“As with the last two winters, we have observed an unusually warm, wet, and windy pattern again this year. An unusually strong North Atlantic jet stream, combined with a direct tropical connection from the very strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific, has resulted in a very stable pattern. This has caused a lower-than-normal energy demand and much higher-than-normal supply of renewable energy across most of the continent, which has resulted in suppressed market prices,” according to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The one exception is in SE Europe, where persistent dryness is causing concerns over hydro levels. Over the next few weeks, there is little indication that this pattern will abate. However, during the back half of winter, there are some hints that a change to a colder weather pattern may occur, especially across northern regions. In the meantime, we are monitoring the stratospheric polar vortex for signs of weakening.”

For the January to March 2016 time period, WSI is forecasting the following conditions:

• January
  • Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal
  • UK* - Near normal
  • Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal
• February:
  • Nordic Region - Colder than normal
  • UK - Near-normal to slightly colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal
• March:
  • Nordic Region - Slightly warmer than normal
  • UK - Near normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-warm-wet-windy-pattern-to-continue-across-much-of-europe

Edited December 22, 2015 by Summer Sun

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Fergie on twitter hopefully less wet as we move towards mid Jan

Latest WSI update

WSI Europe: Warm/Wet/Windy Pattern to Continue Across Much of Europe

Between January and March 2016, WSI (Weather Services International) is forecasting widespread above-normal temperatures across Europe, with near or slightly below-normal temperatures confined to the UK and Scandinavia (especially in February and March). Wet and windy weather is expected to continue, especially from the western mainland northeastward, while drier and less windy conditions will persist across SE Europe.

“As with the last two winters, we have observed an unusually warm, wet, and windy pattern again this year. An unusually strong North Atlantic jet stream, combined with a direct tropical connection from the very strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific, has resulted in a very stable pattern. This has caused a lower-than-normal energy demand and much higher-than-normal supply of renewable energy across most of the continent, which has resulted in suppressed market prices,” according to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The one exception is in SE Europe, where persistent dryness is causing concerns over hydro levels. Over the next few weeks, there is little indication that this pattern will abate. However, during the back half of winter, there are some hints that a change to a colder weather pattern may occur, especially across northern regions. In the meantime, we are monitoring the stratospheric polar vortex for signs of weakening.”

For the January to March 2016 time period, WSI is forecasting the following conditions:

• January
  • Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal
  • UK* - Near normal
  • Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal
• February:
  • Nordic Region - Colder than normal
  • UK - Near-normal to slightly colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal
• March:
  • Nordic Region - Slightly warmer than normal
  • UK - Near normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-warm-wet-windy-pattern-to-continue-across-much-of-europe

Sounds good - no bad weather to cause problems.

[Hocus Pocus]

The problem with WSI is there complete inconsistency as there LRF chop and change constantly.

[Weather-history]

Winter solstice 2015

 

[Summer Sun]

16.1c in Writtle Essex today equalling the daily record set way back in 1910

JAMSTEC's December update shows more of the same with above average temps across virtually all of Europe the only looks to be parts of Scotland the ROI and Northern Ireland where its shown to be slightly below average

Edited December 22, 2015 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

16.1c in Writtle Essex today equalling the daily record set way back in 1910

JAMSTEC's December update shows more of the same with above average temps across virtually all of Europe the only looks to be parts of Scotland the ROI and Northern Ireland where its shown to be slightly below average

The thing is though Gavin, if you surmise that Dec is going to be way over average, it would take a below average combined Jan and Feb to bring us back to those average temps, however, if you also surmise that most of Jan is likely to be Atlantic driven as well (exact temp profile still to be determined but not desperately cold), then it would take a bitter Feb to bring us down to that, that said though when was it issued, if it was issued on the 1st of Dec then I would bin it anyway.

 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I think the good news for the coldies is, even if January is ridiculously mild, it can't possibly be as bad as December! I do see a pattern change as we move into January though, which mosts of the models are suggesting. At least it looks like turning more average with polar maritime incursions, which I think any winter lover would take at the moment.

 

it can be miles worse than December! (for my location I mean here) I don't seem to have had much rain, It's felt pleasant at times, could have been southerly tracking jet, constant rain/gales at 5-6C (instead of 13-14C) and even when systems move away feeling horrendously raw with rain through the Cheshire Gap

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Thunderbolt_ said:

I think the good news for the coldies is, even if January is ridiculously mild, it can't possibly be as bad as December! I do see a pattern change as we move into January though, which mosts of the models are suggesting. At least it looks like turning more average with polar maritime incursions, which I think any winter lover would take at the moment.

TBH I am looking more at pattern matching wrt a late Jan / Early Feb SSW and bitter Feb / March now, If that includes some snow showers from a NWerly then so be it, but if it takes another month of Southerlies pumping WAA up to the pole in order to hit the Jackpot in Feb then so be it, but you can have both, the slider low for instance can be the final trigger to fire the bullet of brutal uppers Westward, I remember the Thursday before the Thursday 7th Feb 1991, we had a dusting then, I remember it well because our next door neighbour (elderly lady) got burgled and didn't even know it was snowing until she knocked our door to ask us for help.

[Frost HoIIow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

TBH I am looking more at pattern matching wrt a late Jan / Early Feb SSW and bitter Feb / March now, If that includes some snow showers from a NWerly then so be it, but if it takes another month of Southerlies pumping WAA up to the pole in order to hit the Jackpot in Feb then so be it, but you can have both, the slider low for instance can be the final trigger to fire the bullet of brutal uppers Westward, I remember the Thursday before the Thursday 7th Feb 1991, we had a dusting then, I remember it well because our next door neighbour (elderly lady) got burgled and didn't even know it was snowing until she knocked our door to ask us for help.

Could end up like early Feb 2012 with that cold spell. I know for the far west it was rubbish as the cold didn't get that far west but it wasn't too bad here with a very decent covering on the 4th.

[Costa Del Fal]

Time to open the spring thread I think. Lol. Far more similarities to that season than winter right now wrt to temps and natures reawakening! 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Feb 2012 cold spell http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2012/archives-2012-2-2-12-1.png 

We got snow on the 4th as milder air moved in from the Atlantic and came against the cold that was in place.

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Time to open the spring thread I think. Lol. Far more similarities to that season than winter right now wrt to temps and natures reawakening! 

 

My hazelnut tree is budding three months ahead of schedule Indeed, spring has sprung!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Medlock Vale said:

Feb 2012 cold spell http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2012/archives-2012-2-2-12-1.png 

We got snow on the 4th as milder air moved in from the Atlantic and came against the cold that was in place.

good day Sat 4th Feb! never turned to rain either, 5th was cold and foggy

[Allseasons-Si]

41 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

My hazelnut tree is budding three months ahead of schedule Indeed, spring has sprung!

Hi Lassie,the buds on trees always swell in the winter months but remain dorment,if they pop into life,that could leed to damage crop for next year

 

i have a good selection of bonsai trees including hazel that needs close inspection with this balmy weather as i dont won't any damage from early growth to hinder blossom photos etc.

Edited December 22, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Summer of 95]

4th Feb 2012, how can I forget the day it rained at -1C. Forecast was for 5-10cm of snow, most places got that, the temps and uppers seemed fine. I'm used to missing snow here (hello winter 2009/10) but that day was ridiculous even by our standards.

4th April 2012, that was the day. Forecast for rain with "wintry over the hills", woke up to a good 2-3cm of lying snow, a week after 20C. A nice surprise in an otherwise horrid month.

Back to 2015/16, 14C again today, now a month without frost.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Good news for you there:

Pretty good WAA for you there. It's almost as mild in Svalbard as it is here on that chart.

Yes, needs to stay like that / keep repeating, preferably with a pacific high as well.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Medlock Vale said:

Could end up like early Feb 2012 with that cold spell. I know for the far west it was rubbish as the cold didn't get that far west but it wasn't too bad here with a very decent covering on the 4th.

Yes, there are 3 winters that spring to mind (not teleconnective wise (they are all completely different) but just with the timing and synoptical setup of any cold, Feb 2012, Feb 2009, Feb 1991.

Edited December 22, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

16.1c in Writtle Essex today equalling the daily record set way back in 1910

JAMSTEC's December update shows more of the same with above average temps across virtually all of Europe the only looks to be parts of Scotland the ROI and Northern Ireland where its shown to be slightly below average

Given that includes December in its forecasting period and that the UK is shown to be only just above average, you'd have to say (given just how far above average Dec has been) Jan and or Feb must be seen as average or slightly below by that model. Otherwise, given how above average Dec has been, it would be showing a much greater above average anomaly if Jan and Feb were being seen as above average too.

EDIT: seems we had the same idea Feb!

Edited December 23, 2015 by CreweCold

[Weather-history]

A decent day

 

[BrickFielder]

  Many expect a weather regime change during January or February due to stratospheric warmings, but perhaps an interesting question for me is what happens if it does not change. What happens exactly if the North Atlantic Oscillation remains positive right the way through Winter. For those who have not yet mastered what a positive NAO means in terms of weather I am talking about a strong Icelandic low and Azores high with wet and windy weather for the UK.
  What I think we can expect is that the cool blast of air coming down the western part of Greenland would continue. This I think should push the ice extent to the west of Greenland unusually far south. We should expect even colder polar air meeting warm air off the coast of the United States. Here lies a possibility for a record low pressure system in the Atlantic. There are risks here that the jet stream could be pushed a little further south with flooding and high winds affecting the majority of the UK not just the north.
  Equally we should expect snow cover to continue to build over northern Russia. This should be a signal for high pressure to build here, but is no guarantee. It does give the opportunity for cold air to spill unusually south across the continent. There is also a risk that the Azores will spread eastward spreading cold across southern Europe. So not only could we face the prospect of a record low pressure system and record high winds , we might hear that places like Spain, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Egypt see snow before the UK gets even a hint of it.
  Our unseasonably high temperatures during December have relied on a feed of warm air from northern Africa and I wonder what happens if an extending Azores high cuts of that flow. You should certainly expect weaker low pressure systems, but also the cold air coming down from the west of Greenland becomes less warmed. The risk would be that wet and windy turns to snowy and windy.
  OK so even with the arctic flow down the west of Greenland you still have a lot of Atlantic ocean to cross. Deep cold has not really had a chance to build up in northern Russia and ice extents to the north of us are still way below normal.

 So I don't expect any of this to happen, but as a bit of an experiment in forecasting and thought I wondered what other people thought a persistent NAO through out winter may through up in the way of surprises.

[Summer Sun]

December on track to be the mildest on record

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/12/24/december-on-track-to-be-the-mildest-on-record/

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

49 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

  Many expect a weather regime change during January or February due to stratospheric warmings, but perhaps an interesting question for me is what happens if it does not change. What happens exactly if the North Atlantic Oscillation remains positive right the way through Winter. For those who have not yet mastered what a positive NAO means in terms of weather I am talking about a strong Icelandic low and Azores high with wet and windy weather for the UK.
  What I think we can expect is that the cool blast of air coming down the western part of Greenland would continue. This I think should push the ice extent to the west of Greenland unusually far south. We should expect even colder polar air meeting warm air off the coast of the United States. Here lies a possibility for a record low pressure system in the Atlantic. There are risks here that the jet stream could be pushed a little further south with flooding and high winds affecting the majority of the UK not just the north.
  Equally we should expect snow cover to continue to build over northern Russia. This should be a signal for high pressure to build here, but is no guarantee. It does give the opportunity for cold air to spill unusually south across the continent. There is also a risk that the Azores will spread eastward spreading cold across southern Europe. So not only could we face the prospect of a record low pressure system and record high winds , we might hear that places like Spain, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Egypt see snow before the UK gets even a hint of it.
  Our unseasonably high temperatures during December have relied on a feed of warm air from northern Africa and I wonder what happens if an extending Azores high cuts of that flow. You should certainly expect weaker low pressure systems, but also the cold air coming down from the west of Greenland becomes less warmed. The risk would be that wet and windy turns to snowy and windy.
  OK so even with the arctic flow down the west of Greenland you still have a lot of Atlantic ocean to cross. Deep cold has not really had a chance to build up in northern Russia and ice extents to the north of us are still way below normal.

 So I don't expect any of this to happen, but as a bit of an experiment in forecasting and thought I wondered what other people thought a persistent NAO through out winter may through up in the way of surprises.

Interesting thought experiment, though I doubt many of us would want it to verify given the potential for widespread flooding.

Edited December 24, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman