Winter 2015/16.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Weatherweb.net reporting the CFS model showing temperatures increasing in the New Year following a cooler Christmas period.

Edited December 13, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Weather-history]

Frosty start but the cloud and rain soon took over

 

[MR EXTREMES]

14 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 

Here are photos of Portsmouth from December 1997 with snow on the ground during the El Niño you mentioned.

http://www.oocities.org/motorcity/1333/prtmsnw2.htm

http://www.oocities.org/motorcity/1333/prtmsnow.htm

 

Must admit I don't remember that but great pictures but this December is not looking very good 

[knocker]

Six months of rain in just six weeks for parts of Cumbria & Snowdonia

 

[damianslaw]

A marked contrast today between north and south, the dividing line roughly a line from Morecambe Bay to the Humber. North of the line very much a cold winter's day with temps below average and for some snow on the ground after a harsh frost. Many inland parts of central/northern Scotland stayed below freezing. South of the line a mild day especially in southern England with no frost.

Whilst we've been locked in a long mild atlantic spell since late October, there have been attempts for cold polar air to take over, notably around the 20 November and over the last 2 days. These invasions in the north have been preety potent, and there are signs we may see another invasion over the Christmas period.

I'm seeing a signal for colder polar maritime airstream to invade just in time for Christmas.

[jethro]

3 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I can see one or two places hitting 17°C on Thursday and then again on Saturday. Pretty balmy... or is that barmy?

Most definitely barmy. It's stupidly mild down here.

[Lake District Blizzards]

judging by the forecast for the next week and the met office extended update

This will be the first winter where the term "hottest" on record rather than warmest / mildest is used

wouldn't be surprised if some places have 3 months of mean maximums averging 11-12c

[Liam J]

Suppose there are some positives with this milder weather during the winter months with a lower risk of health complications and even deaths which tend to go upward sharply during periods of cold weather, especially for the more vulnerable, something we all seem to forget when hoping for freezing temperatures and snow. 

[Summer Sun]

Tonight could be the mildest December night on record

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-12-15/tonight-could-be-the-mildest-december-night-on-record/

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Suppose there are some positives with this milder weather during the winter months with a lower risk of health complications and even deaths which tend to go upward sharply during periods of cold weather, especially for the more vulnerable, something we all seem to forget when hoping for freezing temperatures and snow. 

There is that, I suppose, particularly when we consider the state of the NHS these days.

[MP-R]

Cold spell like December 2008 anyone? Zonal on the 20th > cold and anticyclonic on the 30th. I know there was no snow but it was very seasonal and DRY!

  

I'm hoping FI will start showing something like this as I feel the last few charts of the most recent runs have have shown a loosely similar 'possible' evolution.

[Weather-history]

Crikey there was a glimpse of blue skies and sun today

 

[virtualsphere]

5 hours ago, MP-R said:

Cold spell like December 2008 anyone? Zonal on the 20th > cold and anticyclonic on the 30th. I know there was no snow but it was very seasonal and DRY!

  

I'm hoping FI will start showing something like this as I feel the last few charts of the most recent runs have have shown a loosely similar 'possible' evolution.

I'd gladly take that over the current weather here - I don't mind the idea of a record-breaking warm December but I'm not keen on the relentless wet weather and lack of sunshine we've experienced since the beginning of November.   The problem with warm temperatures at this time of year is that they generally come from cloudy, wet conditions associated with a S-SW flow.  I'd actually prefer a warm January than December, as Christmas just seems much more seasonal when the weather is cold and frosty, even if there's no snow.  

Sadly any change to anticyclonic weather looks just that little bit too late to fit in with the festive season this year, which is a shame as this will be the fourth similar December in succession after a great run of seasonal Decembers in the 2000s leading up to 2010.  Last year wasn't too bad in comparison, but 2012 and 2013 were dire in the run up to Christmas and this year looks like following suit. 

On a positive note, though, it'll be good to save on the heating bills!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 hours ago, MP-R said:

Cold spell like December 2008 anyone? Zonal on the 20th > cold and anticyclonic on the 30th. I know there was no snow but it was very seasonal and DRY!

  

I'm hoping FI will start showing something like this as I feel the last few charts of the most recent runs have have shown a loosely similar 'possible' evolution.

 

so much doubt it, general thinking that aftet Xmas, it will turn wetter, less mild with a more southerly tracking jet, temps around average, (for south of course)

just a feeling, just like yours, obviously hope yours comes off

[knocker]

As a matter of interest do you know what sort of geese they are?

[nick sussex]

40 minutes ago, knocker said:

As a matter of interest do you know what sort of geese they are?

They could be Grey Lag Geese. Theres several different populations across Europe who follow different migration paths, these ones here apparently head off to southern Spain. Normally they stop off in the fields for a few days and then they shoot south. But they've been here now for at least two weeks. We also get cranes that head south aswell.

I think the weather is confusing a lot of nature, birds included.

[knocker]

41 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

They could be Grey Lag Geese. Theres several different populations across Europe who follow different migration paths, these ones here apparently head off to southern Spain. Normally they stop off in the fields for a few days and then they shoot south. But they've been here now for at least two weeks. We also get cranes that head south aswell.

I think the weather is confusing a lot of nature, birds included.

Yes I was thinking Greylag. They do stop over if conditions are favourable.

[Summer Sun]

Mild start to December

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/12/16/mild-start-to-december/

[Nouska]

21 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes I was thinking Greylag. They do stop over if conditions are favourable.

I would also think of Greylag - from just a couple of thousand in the early nineties, now more than 25,000 over-wintered in France at last count data.

Dispersion map. 

I follow the crane migration every season as they sometimes stop over in fields near us - get snippets on the geese in these reports.

 

[Weather-history]

Hard to believe it's December, felt warm

 

Edited December 16, 2015 by Weather-history

[> mark]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Hard to believe it's December, felt warm

 

Tell me about it, polo shirt on today in December! Bulbs are well and truly pushing there way up in the borders now :-/

[Peter H]

M y grass needs cut it's that mild.

[Summer Sun]

16C in Achnagart (Highland) & Bude (Cornwall) a short time ago and widely in the teens for the cities

[Summer Sun]

This general pattern we're in now may begin to change after Christmas the question of course is a change to what

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35117803

[ManiaMuse]

Personally I'm loving this insanely mild weather. Yes it is very murky and gloomy and I can't remember the last time I saw the sun, but then tbh the days are so short and the sun so low in the sky that it's probably as good a time as ever for it to be constantly overcast (as long as we don't have yet another grey summer in 2016...)

Pros for me:

• Fingers and toes not going numb when cycling to/from work (+ no ice to worry about)
• Can sit outside to eat my lunch outside without having to wear a coat
• Hasn't really been that wet and windy in most places so far (apart from Cumbria which seems to have been screwed over by all the rainfall). Certainly nowhere near as bad as 2013 yet..
• Not having to put the heating on all the time
• Generally mostly harmless weather (apart from the areas affected by flooding) which you can still do most things outside without being bothered by the cold

People who I feel sorry for:

• Those affected by the flooding
• European ski resorts, not looking great for snow so far and coming after 2014 which had a slow start as well. There hasn't been a mega season across all parts of the Alps for a few years and I think especially some of the lower resorts are going to find themselves struggling and going into decline in the next few years if this is a trend. Even spending huge amounts on snowmaking equipment is useless if temperatures are still too high!

People I don't feel sorry for

• The energy companies starting to panic about winter profits. They never pass on savings to customers when commodity prices fall so screw them when the weather does customers a favour.