Winter 2015/16.

[SLEETY]

rubbish gfs 12 hope its not correct

[Summer Sun]

â€@MattHugo81

 

Final EC seasonal update before winter starts (Dec) onwards supports the idea of a gradual change to a more blocked regime Jan/Feb time.

 

Those hoping for a cold & seasonal Christmas this yr could be disappointed but it will be 'pot luck' greatest risk of cold comes Jan onwards

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

â€@MattHugo81

 

Final EC seasonal update before winter starts (Dec) onwards supports the idea of a gradual change to a more blocked regime Jan/Feb time.

 

Those hoping for a cold & seasonal Christmas this yr could be disappointed but it will be 'pot luck' greatest risk of cold comes Jan onwards

I suppose many agree with general idea of that with Feb still likely to be most wintry month for me BUT plenty of interspersed interest to come beforehand if it goes to plan

 

BFTP

[damianslaw]

â€@MattHugo81

 

Final EC seasonal update before winter starts (Dec) onwards supports the idea of a gradual change to a more blocked regime Jan/Feb time.

 

Those hoping for a cold & seasonal Christmas this yr could be disappointed but it will be 'pot luck' greatest risk of cold comes Jan onwards

 

 

With the exception of the Boxing Day snowy blip for some last year (which really came out of the blue), the last 4 Christmas periods have been very mild and very unseasonal so it would be a kick in the teeth to see yet another mild one especially if associated with wind and rain which the last 4 have been.. We were spoilt somewhat in 2008-2010.

 

We've been here before though, the likes of 2000, 2004 spring to mind which both saw zonal dominated Decembers until just before Christmas.

 

Short term pain long term gain may be the motto of this winter.. who knows!

[MP-R]

With the exception of the Boxing Day snowy blip for some last year (which really came out of the blue), the last 4 Christmas periods have been very mild and very unseasonal so it would be a kick in the teeth to see yet another mild one especially if associated with wind and rain which the last 4 have been.. We were spoilt somewhat in 2008-2010.

 

We've been here before though, the likes of 2000, 2004 spring to mind which both saw zonal dominated Decembers until just before Christmas.

 

Short term pain long term gain may be the motto of this winter.. who knows!

 

As far as December 2004 goes, I didn't mind it too much as a winter month - the first half was completely dry here, sometimes quite chilly with temperatures hovering around 3-5C on some days; then an Atlantic spell between the 15th-24th brought the first snowfall here overnight 18th/19th as a low sunk southwards and cold air dug in behind. I remember Christmas Eve was stormy, then snow showers on Christmas Day and a frosty sparkling Boxing Day before milder air returned before the New Year.

 

2004-2005 really did have it all; the most disappointing aspect was the fantastic synoptics in February that delivered sod all.

[Peter H]

The accu extended weather forecast now takes us up to the 8th January, almost the halfway stage of the winter and they've nothing remotely cold between now and then for this part of the UK (Co. Antrim.).

 

OK, so that's a long way off, but the Met Office extended forecast is pretty much the same up until the 23rd December. The month as a whole is beginning to look like the usual wet. windy, and mild "winter" weather that we've become used to in recent years.

Weather online is a bit more optimistic for the end of December:

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead

 

and December and January as a whole:

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

 

but neither the BBC nor the UK Met Office are picking up on this.

I'm getting that dreaded feeling this one is going to be another snow/frostless stinker.

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest update from WSI which takes us from December to February

 

WSI Europe: No Signs of Sustained Significant Cold During First Half of Winter

 

Monitoring Polar Vortex for Potential of Late-Season Cold

 

WSI (Weather Services International) expects slightly below-normal temperatures in northern sections of the UK, with above-normal temperatures everywhere else across Europe for the December-February period. A wet and windy winter is expected across much of Europe, with the exception of parts of Southeast Europe, where Atlantic high pressure will keep conditions drier and less windy. According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford,“As with the last two winters, we expect at least the first half of this winter to be warm, wet, and windy across much of Europe, as an energized westerly Atlantic jet stream will pound the continent with numerous strong storms.

 

Any hope of sustained colder weather will likely be limited to late winter, and only if the stratospheric polar vortex weakens significantly. There are indications that this may happen, however, as a very strong Siberian high pressure area may enable the necessary meteorological dominoes to fall and allow for a sudden stratospheric warming event that would break the vortex down. For now, we have introduced below-normal temperatures for February across far northern sections to allow for that risk. However, many of our other indicators continue to indicate a persistence of the warmer early winter pattern, so we are hesitant to fully embrace the late-winter colder risks without stronger evidence.â€

 

In December, WSI forecasts:

• Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
• UK* – Slightly cooler than normal
• Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
• Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except far Southeast

In January, WSI forecasts:

• Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except western Norwegian coast
• UK – Colder than normal north, warmer than normal south
• Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
• Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In February, WSI forecasts:

• Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme southern Sweden/Finland
• UK – Colder than normal north, warmer than normal south
• Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
• Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

 

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-no-signs-of-sustained-significant-cold-during-first-half-of-winter

[Peter H]

I suppose many agree with general idea of that with Feb still likely to be most wintry month for me

 

There's far more chance of getting snow in March/April in these parts than the so called winter months, but at that stage the sun;s far too strong for anything to settle to any great extent.

 

What I'd give for a 1978/79 or 1981/82 scenario. The only one that's come anyway close was 2009/10. December 2010 was exceptional, but the winter of 2010/11 ended abruptly on Boxing day and there was no snow and little frost after that. .
 

In this locality, we really haven't had any appreciable lying snow since December 2010.
 

 

[Summer Sun]

Here's how the beeb currently see things for early December

 

[Nick F]

An interesting read from Larry Cosgrove, a US pro met:

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/?hl=en#!topic/weatheramerica/ni4gRX9cT3U

He suggests no break in the current northern hemisphere pattern through December, but a weakening and fragmentation of the PV in early Jan.

[Methuselah]

An interesting read from Larry Cosgrove, a US pro met:

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/?hl=en#!topic/weatheramerica/ni4gRX9cT3U

He suggests no break in the current northern hemisphere pattern through December, but a weakening and fragmentation of the PV in early Jan.

If I remember correctly, the period between Xmas 1990 and New Year 1991 was also dominated by a strong PV, and copious (westerly-sourced) snowfalls north of the Tweed; and, by late January, one of the best blizzards ever (for the South and East) was in the making?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cheers Nick

interesting read that and also the anticipated collapse of the El Nino which has peaked.  I'll go along with that as a general theme 

 

BFTP

[damianslaw]

Mmm that BBC forecast for early Dec rather misleading, the current charts don't show high pressure over southern Britain in the days ahead, indeed we have low pressure forecast to move across southern England on Thursday.. late term developments and the strength of the Jetstream unlikely to enable any robust height development from the south I believe..

 

Interesting to note we have a climate change summit the first in 6 years, the last time we had one we saw a marked change to cold weather occurring not long after (around 9 Dec 09).. mmm makes you wonder..

[PolarWarsaw]

For anyone sick of the state of things closer to home, in what is turning into an ever more boring UK climate........

 

Well aren't the people Iowa rather lucky? After some parts got up to 18" of snow last week, they have another winter storm watch this evening as part of NW Iowa and the twin cities could get anywhere from 3-10" tommorrow from another storm moving northwards. It just seems like there is a storm to talk about in parts of the country a couple of times a week, even in such an El Nino state - it really is staggering how exciting the US climate is at all times - be it snow, storms the lot. 

 

Forecast link for IOWA - http://whotv.com/weather/

 

The Weather Channel's verdict - http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-midwest-plains-corn-belt-november-december-2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

Certainly something to keep an eye on for coldies on NW as the climate at home continues to be predominantly dire if it's snow you are after.

[damianslaw]

For anyone sick of the state of things closer to home, in what is turning into an ever more boring UK climate........

 

Well aren't the people Iowa rather lucky? After some parts got up to 18" of snow last week, they have another winter storm watch this evening as part of NW Iowa and the twin cities could get anywhere from 3-10" tommorrow from another storm moving northwards. It just seems like there is a storm to talk about in parts of the country a couple of times a week, even in such an El Nino state - it really is staggering how exciting the US climate is at all times - be it snow, storms the lot. 

 

Forecast link for IOWA - http://whotv.com/weather/

 

The Weather Channel's verdict - http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-midwest-plains-corn-belt-november-december-2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

Certainly something to keep an eye on for coldies on NW as the climate at home continues to be predominantly dire if it's snow you are after.

 

 

Not for Scotland currently very snowy... mins forecast to be -10 degrees in the Highlands, the UK climate can be just as topsy turvy.

[Liam J]

Quite a temperature contrast tomorrow, spring like in the south and winter in the north! lol

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

The weather outlook's winter forecast

 

Winter: Milder than average

 

Overview

 

A milder and wetter than average winter is forecast but despite this most areas are expected to see lying snow. Colder outbreaks compared to the average are likely to be more frequent in the north. Nationwide cold snaps are most probable around mid-December, the second half of January and mid-February.

 

Monthly breakdowns can be found here http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Happy Winter everybody. The countdowns over and it's here. May all our snowy wishes and dreams come true.

Edited December 1, 2015 by WALSALL SNOW

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index is up and running. Winter 2013-14 gave a value of 7 whilst 2009-10 was 197.

[Summer Sun]

Large parts of England have temperatures at the moment between 13c & 15c

We're still in single figures here in the NE at the moment but its rising rapidly

[Weather-history]

1st day of winter

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=p2asL4YEGO0

[Weather-history]

A little bit of sun this morning but otherwise yer another cloudy day!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m_5gBRMjMnw

[Mark Neal.]

On 12/1/2015, 7:58:01, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Index is up and running. Winter 2013-14 gave a value of 7 whilst 2009-10 was 197.

What is the Manchester Winter Index judged on? Frosts/Ice days and snow? 

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, Mark N said:

What is the Manchester Winter Index judged on? Frosts/Ice days and snow? 

It's 10 x [(the number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days with lying snow at 9am)+(number of days with a minimum of 0C or less)] divided by the mean winter maximum

[Weather-history]

Crikey the sun returns!