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Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

Thunderbolt_

By Thunderbolt_
in Forecast Model Discussion

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

http://www.myweather2.com/streamline/player.aspx?Streamline=2

A very good way to view the predicted fronts and disturbances and their tracks.like the NORTH SEA runner predicted

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Great find 'Winterof79' http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

I  don't think the upper temperatures are low enough for polar low formation in that arctic flow TH?

 

All models now showing some colder weather for the end of the weak, thats for sure. :)

'

 

I doubt a polar low can be modelled this far ahead but there was some suggestion previously that the ECM achieved it for the west coast. Temps at Z500 cold enough in a small puddle of -42C sliding down the North sea.

 

gfs-13-132_eay4.png

 

ECM ensembles for Reading.

 

epsgram_at_reading!epsgram.gif

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

http://www.myweather2.com/streamline/player.aspx?Streamline=2

A very good way to view the predicted fronts and disturbances and their tracks.like the NORTH SEA runner predicted

 

 

 

Fantastic find this

 

i do like the upper air temps maps as it shows the overlay of upper air temps over the lower ones :)

 

http://www.myweather2.com/rh850temp/player.aspx?fc=2

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

I doubt a polar low can be modelled this far ahead but there was some suggestion previously that the ECM achieved it for the west coast. Temps at Z500 cold enough in a small puddle of -42C sliding down the North sea.

 

gfs-13-132_eay4.png

 

ECM ensembles for Reading.

 

epsgram_at_reading!epsgram.gif

 

Agreed, too far out,and yes those temperatures could be condsive to PL formation.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

Interesting 18z so far.  Seems a slower evolution to what was seen earlier.  Whilst we are left waiting a bit longer, the uppers coming in from the north are an upgrade to the 12z (12z on the bottom)

 

gfsnh-1-144.png?18

gfsnh-1-150.png?12

Edited by Ice Day
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Looked at the GEFS anomalies earlier and the ecm is also goimg for a pattern change early nest week. The anomally on Sunday certainly confirms the cold northerly plunge with strong ridging to the west into Greenland and the trough Scandinavia down through Europe into N. Africa. Certainly some cold wintry conditions. But it would appear to be  brief at this stage. By Tuesday the pattern has become less amplified with the ridge now orientated just to the west of the UK backing the streamlines NW resulting a more average temps.

 

By the Saturday 28th still a weak trough Europe and another Iceland area with HP away to the SW giving a zonal westerly flow and average temps. And I also notice the HP GOA is replaced by a trough and also another trough NE Canada by the end of the ext period.

 

I think any further comments from me on the weekend would be somewhat superfluous.

post-12275-0-10026800-1447626066_thumb.p

post-12275-0-14091100-1447626072_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Siberian ridge looking stronger on this run

 

So is the BI one,poss Scandi do you thInk BA?,again,but much earlier than the 12z which was out in la la land.

 

just for fun,look north

 

post-16960-0-24673400-1447628399_thumb.p

 

atlantic ridge biulding again.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

ECM London ensemles

A small scattering of colder runs in there.

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

12z or 18z?   for me 18 z....Looking good all round basically.   Now to put spanner in works I'm looking at Dec and will do an LRF next couple of days.  I'm erring on a very 'seasonal' month......with a few surprises....winter to be?   :cold:Here we go...let the games commence

 

 

This from 18Z looks good for me...I prefer to blocking scenario...not out of like but potential set up,,,and a guaranteed pattern change ahead for rest of Nov with stormy, wet colder and snowy for some to come.  

 

h850t850eu.png

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

ECM London ensemles

A small scattering of colder runs in there.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

No surprise to see the 12z GFS on the mild end of the spread from the 24th around when it develops low pressure to the west and brings in a mild SWly flow.

A solid and assertive plunge to cold by the end of this week, with a good chance any recovery in temperatures after the weekend will be only slight and probably not rising nowhere near the mid teens like recent days but more like the seasonal norm.

Back to the 18z, band of snow moving south on Saturday, would even see a few flakes across the SE as it arrives after dark going by the parameters of the run, of course just too far off to say it will pan out anywhere near that.

Edited by Nick F
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Looks like the tropospheric vortex is going to split once again deeper into FI with a strat warming evident and just look at that Siberian high once again

 

gfsnh-0-324.png?0

 

npst30.png

Edited by CreweCold
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Not much new on this morning's gfs but Sunday continues to hold out possibilities  for some snow further south, particularly in the east I would have thought but at this range too far away to venture into the definitive. Again this cold plunge is very short with the systems moving east quite quickly, obviously including the upper trough. After that the run very mobile and best left for more confirmation of the evolution.

charts weatherbell

post-12275-0-32761500-1447655561_thumb.p

post-12275-0-26406700-1447655570_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

ECM London ensemles

A small scattering of colder runs in there.

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

From little acorns .........

the return to average clear but then the scatter is very large so it seems the extended ECM is deciding in which direction to head.

I noted the gfs 18z op trying to potentially undercut which would have generated a small wedge of higher heights to our nw. The GEM this morning also attempts the same thing. And ECM op this morning looks very uncertain around the 8/10 day period.

I wouldn't rule anything out at the moment.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Now firming up on a 2 day cold event, nothing too cold but a shock to the system after the unusually warm weather of late. What is more interesting is the slight stratospheric warming starting to show up - this is forecast as a possibility later in the winter by the METO not in November. This signal may disappear , however that and the broken NH PV Doesn't look your normal zonal type set up to me.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

It has to be said there is no unanimity over the weekend's evolution. The ecm has a depression over Scotland 00 Sunday with the streamlines W/NW and 24hrs later the ridge nudging in.

 

post-12275-0-21769400-1447659939_thumb.p

post-12275-0-03588200-1447659945_thumb.p

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