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Paul

HO-PI Winter Index - October vote

HO-PI October Poll  

89 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you think the upcoming winter is going to pan out?

    • 100% confidence of a cold winter
      8
    • 90% confidence of a cold winter
      0
    • 80% confidence of a cold winter
      2
    • 70% confidence of a cold winter
      11
    • 60% confidence of a cold winter
      19
    • 50/50 cold or mild
      15
    • 60% confidence of a mild winter
      10
    • 70% confidence of a mild winter
      12
    • 80% confidence of a mild winter
      10
    • 90% confidence of a mild winter
      1
    • 100% confidence of a mild winter
      0


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Following on from the initial HO-PI vote (https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84055-ho-pi-winter-index-201516/), here we go with the October version. Please vote on your gut instinct of how you think the winter is going to pan out. 

 

After this vote (which'll close in a few days) we can start to compare how community confidence is either increasing or decreasing compared to last month, with the final vote at the end of November. 

 

As before, this is just a bit of unscientific fun :D

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60per cent in favour of a cold winter was my vote.

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Sticking with the 70% chance of a mild winter. I think the winter if it does have any cold spells will be back-loaded. There could be some rather gruesome (for coldies) set ups over the coming month or so.

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Sticking with the 70% chance of a mild winter. I think the winter if it does have any cold spells will be back-loaded. There could be some rather gruesome (for coldies) set ups over the coming month or so.

Agreed. If a SSW occurs late January and we only begin to see the benefits in early to mid February, it it will be tough to get below average overall, bare in mind February has less days too.

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I've switched opinion in favour of a milder winter. Notably this euro block could be very stubborn in some form. It could move north and allow Something colder but seems some like the METO look more confident in something milder. Not saying they are right but would still trust them that little more.

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Still 80% cold.

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I too think any cold is likely in February from a warming event.

I have though voted 80% mild as i do think we will see a mainly +AO/NAO in December and January which would tilt the balance towards above average temps. for the 3 month period.

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With the factors well discussed e.g by the Met Office blog  I'm feeling 60% for milder at the moment, at least for December and January (last month I was around 50/50).

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Still sticking with the half way house 50/50 my gut feeling

Is a mild December,with colder weather from mid January

C.S

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80% chance of a mild winter my guess.. Will be interesting to see how it pans out with the lead into Winter very different from last 

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Prety sure this winter.....especially December and January...will end up mild.   I think the last half of November perhaps going on into December will be newsworthy wet!   I expect Christmas to be damp and foggy

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I've gone 80% mild.  These Euro blocks have a nasty habit of sticking around.  Hope I'm wrong.

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Just a reminder that the vote will close tonight. 

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All these votes on gut feelings, so funny. If everyone was going by the actual the evidence on show there wouldnt be such a spread in the results.

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All these votes on gut feelings, so funny. If everyone was going by the actual the evidence on show there wouldnt be such a spread in the results.

 

I'm not aware there has been any definitive long range forecasts that show any degree of accuracy ever. The spread reflects 'don't know' and is probably better then any Daily Express forecast.

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