Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

[El ninyaknow]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But I don't remember there being any cold at all in the run up until the SSW took hold, we know an SSW isn't a guarantee of frigid cold involving blocking but gives a better than even chance of it, Jan 87 the SSW was a week and a half after the bitter cold but if the SSW had never occurred to any extent and the polar 10mb temps would have stayed around average, theres no way that that bitter spell would have occurred so what I'm saying is the SSW doesn't knock you out of it, it just seems that way, that's my view anyway.

It depends on the type of SSW, since 1958 (reasonable upper air records)  a split vortex event results on average with the 40 day period after the central point (10hpa winds at 60•N reversal) in a 3k departure from average temperature across Eurasia (focuses on the NW) from a sample of 15/20 depending upon criteria for SSW split deferentiation, often lead by K2 wave energy focused solely over the Pacific side (not yet modelled..) whereas a displacement event lead also by k2 wave breaking but focuses equally on the Siberian and Pacific side often leads to near neutral temp anomalies in the 40 days after the event but 1-2k lower anomalies for the USA (east focus). In past years with cold anomalies the best bet is to look at anomalous tropical Pacific forcing.. One thing is for sure we are certainly moving into uncharted territory this year in both the Pacific and the strat...unfolding)... All eyes to the ECM!! 

[Dennis]

A nice sign......

[Day 10]

First time post in here, hopefully I'm aloud to post this tweet from lastnight. No expert on the strat whatsoever so not sure whether what Todd is saying is a good thing or not for cold fans?

Great thread by the way, keep up the good work guys

 

Todd Crawford ‏@tcrawf_nh

Kids are raising hell downstairs and occasionally knocking on door, but ol' Grandpa StratPV is still snoring away

[Snowman.]

2 hours ago, Minus 10 said:

First time post in here, hopefully I'm aloud to post this tweet from lastnight. No expert on the strat whatsoever so not sure whether what Todd is saying is a good thing or not for cold fans?

Great thread by the way, keep up the good work guys

 

Todd Crawford ‏@tcrawf_nh

Kids are raising hell downstairs and occasionally knocking on door, but ol' Grandpa StratPV is still snoring away

Basically the bottom of the strat and trop PV are under heavy fire while the top of the strat is just a solid beast.

[bobbydog]

14 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Basically the bottom of the strat and trop PV are under heavy fire while the top of the strat is just a solid beast.

on the plus side, thats the GFS strat chart at +120. the GFS (like all the models really) hasn't yet got a handle on the trop forecast. if we are still expecting a trop-led 'bottom up' warming, then the strat charts will be off the mark until they do. every other run or so, charts like this pop up in FI-

next run there could  nothing but there have been better ones. point being, once (if!) the models settle into some agreement, we will know better where the strat vortex is going. until then i wouldnt worry too much.

[Weather-history]

On 8 January 2016 at 5:08 PM, feb1991blizzard said:

But I don't remember there being any cold at all in the run up until the SSW took hold, we know an SSW isn't a guarantee of frigid cold involving blocking but gives a better than even chance of it, Jan 87 the SSW was a week and a half after the bitter cold but if the SSW had never occurred to any extent and the polar 10mb temps would have stayed around average, theres no way that that bitter spell would have occurred so what I'm saying is the SSW doesn't knock you out of it, it just seems that way, that's my view anyway.

How do you know that cold spell wouldn't have occurred?  Its proven that we can have cold spells without the aid of the stratosphere, so you can't say with confidence that cold spell wouldn't have occurred.  

 

[Nouska]

GFS parallel being fairly consistent in last few runs.

18Z        00Z 

[feb1991blizzard]

30 minutes ago, Nouska said:

GFS parallel being fairly consistent in last few runs.

18Z        00Z 

And now the op has come to the party in spectacular fashion.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

How do you know that cold spell wouldn't have occurred?  Its proven that we can have cold spells without the aid of the stratosphere, so you can't say with confidence that cold spell wouldn't have occurred.  

 

Lets throw it out there then, lets see what the experts think.

[AWD]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And now the op has come to the party in spectacular fashion.

 

 

"Twitter talk" also excited about developments in the eps;

[Snowman.]

Gaining

 

The little warming that could.

[IDO]

Not going to argue with the Doctor:

 

 

[karyo]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Not going to argue with the Doctor:

 

 

Great news and I am pleased he used a chart from the 12z.

[Day 10]

18 minutes ago, karyo said:

Great news and I am pleased he used a chart from the 12z.

His next blog should be interesting as he also says support from ensembles and ecm

[lorenzo]

As Ed mentioned on Twitter, certainly looking like a trend now, and some other debate that this is the last potential attempt at SSW prior to final warming.  It looks like a decent shot...

Here is mid December until present. then alongside this 01 January until present for temps at 10mb, that Canadian area losing depth.

Decided to have a mess around with the super ensemble dates tonight and roll them around the re-analysis.

10mb temps -current then forward 10 and 15 days

Heights - 10 and 15 days

and 30mb temp then heights

H5 at Day 10

Going by the projections above vortex under some considerable challenge at last, bear in mind the start position and the fact that the vortex is in a class of it's own too...

Here is a gif made from the JMA site that highlights the development of that Kara ridge and how it distorted the 30hPa layer, how the down well plays out from here - who knows but will certainly watch with interest.

Nasa sees the warming across 70-90N as below - 

and across the layers as

That's the best I can do to display some of what's going on until @Recretos gets busy with his ninja graphics. Hopefully we will get a glance at the ECM version of events via Twitter this evening, also makes the weeklies more interesting tomorrow evening.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

@lorenzo

i posted these charts further up the page a couple of days ago showing a steady uptick on the 30-hpa temps

latest

 

not much progress on the latest but this can change suddenly couldn't it?,

i did browse the 2012/13 strat archives to see how sudden these spikes can appear

 

 

form mid nov,you can see how cold the strat got then(below av) like we are experiencing now,

more images of that winter

we had two minor warmings,then the biggy that delivered the goods in march,

i do not post in here much,as i do not understand much in this game,but things can and do happen suddenly(SSW)right

Edit:correct me if i am wrong,but shouldn't we be looking at the 10-hpa temps,a bit of a uptick there,too

 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Snowman.]

18z keeping the theme going.

[lorenzo]

@Allseasons-si good work hunting around through the archives, there is some gold in past season's strat threads.

Here is a link you may enjoy - click through the temp charts there and go through the seasons.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

[chionomaniac]

Mike Ventrice has kindly displayed the T+360 EPS and GEFS 10hPa ensemble charts. Very promising and it wouldn't take much more to bring the vortex down. Obviously a long way off but we have to see the signal start somewhere.

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

@Allseasons-si good work hunting around through the archives, there is some gold in past season's strat threads.

Here is a link you may enjoy - click through the temp charts there and go through the seasons.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

Thanks Lorenzo,i will have a look tomorrow now,as my head hurts lol

[Recretos]

Here is my animation of the 00z GFS, showing the downard propagation of the warming in 3D, from 10mb downwards. Looks like a wave 1 displacement SSW beginning. but of course only in the models atm, in the FI. lets not forget that

 

 

There is good GEFS support for now. We also have the first SSW forecast, coming from ens member 8.

 

 

 

 

 

[Chris1986]

Ozone charts also support the warming development. Last 5 gfs runs show the same trends.  

[Recretos]

indeed. When looking at layers tho, its better to look at ozone mixing ratios. Here you can nicely see the surf zone.

 

[Chris1986]

3 minutes ago, Recretos said:

indeed. When looking at layers tho, its better to look at ozone mixing ratios. Here you can nicely see the surf zone.

 

Nice  what site did you use for that? I'm new to this.

[Recretos]

all the graphics that have my name on it, are my own. i am making my own graphics for quite a while now.  Usually you can find it on my twitter.