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A new tropical storm has formed a few hundred miles west-northwest of Guam. Named Koppu, the storm has winds of 35kts. Moderate shear is plaguing Koppu, which should make intensification over the next couple of days quite slow. Beyond, shear will drop off, and on approach to the Philippines, Koppu will traverse waters of 30°C. Rapid intensification is expected in this time frame, with a peak of 125kts forecast by JTWC before Koppu slams into Luzon. There is some model disagreement, with some models favouring a northward turn before reaching Luzon. So a landfall is not set in stone by any stretch. Luzon need to be prepared for a potential landfall however.

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Koppu has strengthened to 50kts as it moves westwards towards the Philippines. Shear seems to be easing over Koppu now, and the storm is much better organised with deeper, more centralised convection and improved banding features. Koppu will probably soon become a typhoon and is expected to be a 100kt+ system at landfall. A turn towards the north to spare Luzon looks more unlikely now.

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Good Evening,

My son's fiance lives in the Philippines in an area known as Ilo Ilo. Is it likely to be hit and if so what are the effects likely to be?

Kind Regards

Dave

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Koppu has become a typhoon with winds of 85kts. The typhoon has significantly grown in size as it bears down on Luzon. Koppu is expected to peak at 115kts, cat 4, before landfall. The typhoon is then expected to stall over Luzon, unleashing very large amounts of rainfall, and, initially, very damaging winds.

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Dave, Koppu should pass well north of that location. Although rainfall may increase indirectly from Koppu, the typhoon will not directly affect Iloilo :). The damaging winds and heaviest rains will affect Luzon to the north.

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Koppu has become a typhoon with winds of 85kts. The typhoon has significantly grown in size as it bears down on Luzon. Koppu is expected to peak at 115kts, cat 4, before landfall. The typhoon is then expected to stall over Luzon, unleashing very large amounts of rainfall, and, initially, very damaging winds.

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Dave, Koppu should pass well north of that location. Although rainfall may increase indirectly from Koppu, the typhoon will not directly affect Iloilo :). The damaging winds and heaviest rains will affect Luzon to the north.

Hello Somerset Squall,

Thanks for your reply. I will let my son know. He will be very reassured.

Kind Regards

Dave

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Rain may be a very very big problem for the Philippines in the next few days, GFS output had a max of 79 inches for some locations!

 

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Winds are up to 115kts, category 4 on the SS scale. Koppu is forecast to strengthen up until landfall, so is forecast to peak at 125kts before slamming into the east coast of Luzon.

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Koppu has strengthened more than forecast. Winds are up to 130kts, making Koppu a Super Typhoon. Koppu is now expected to become a category 5 on the SS scale prior to landfall on Luzon. This is a very very dangerous situation for Luzon :(

Closing in

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Koppu didn't get any stronger and made landfall with 130kt winds. The typhoon has weakened to 85kts, cat 2, over the rugged terrain of Luzon. Koppu has slowed considerably as it get trapped between the ridge to the northeast which has been steering Koppu so far, and a building ridge to the west. Koppu may spend the next 2-3 days over land, crawling to the north. Eventually, Koppu should emerge over water north of Luzon, and begin to re-intensify over warm waters, low shear and good outflow. Just where Koppu goes next remains open to question, as some models indicate a northward track towards Taiwan and others indicate a more westerly track towards Hong Kong.

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Tropical Storm Koppu has dumped over a metre of rain in the city of Baguio in the NW of the Philippines' island of Luzon since it arrived as a Typhoon over the weekend before weakening. Koppu , now centred off NW Luzon and moving slowly NE, looks ill-defined with disorganised convective bands. Looks to track NE to the east of Taiwan and toward the southern outlying islands of Japan.

More on its impacts in my blog here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6948;sess=

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With this track, you can see why. Koppu has been pounding Luzon for 3 days now.

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Luzon has also pounded Koppu, with winds now at 45kts. With a marginal environment ahead and a highly disorganised structure, Koppu is forecast to slowly peter out as it moves northeastwards away from Luzon.

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