Winter 2015/16

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A lot change on their own now, temperature thing does, time on monitor, time on sky tv, not my 6310i though

[DAVID SNOW]

A lot change on their own now, temperature thing does, time on monitor, time on sky tv, not my 6310i though

 

Nor my Grandfather clock..

[Captain Shortwave]

Would that be today, then? Or are we going back to the future?

Because it is the CFS 

[iceman1991]

Preety much near to nothing on snow growth in Scandinavia which is a worry for winter for us but apart from that the rest of Russia isnt doing to bad only ome part of the jigzaw though

[Bullseye]

https://twitter.com/CONWEATHER/status/658406606443540480

Posted same in Cooler Atlantic thread, signs of cooling in 1.2 region, chance of central based El Nino by December?

[Daniel*]

Preety much near to nothing on snow growth in Scandinavia which is a worry for winter for us but apart from that the rest of Russia isnt doing to bad only ome part of the jigzaw though

No I would not say it is a worry at all if will have no ramifications for the UK whatsoever we have time.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In response to the last couple of posts, it's worth noting that the first two-thirds of November 2010 were exceptionally warm across most of Eurasia and Scandinavia was pretty warm.  However, it then turned very cold over Scandinavia around 21-24 November and this cold air then spread to the British Isles.  I remember posts lamenting about how we would rue the lack of cold pooling to the north-east, but we picked up such a sustained north-easterly flow that the north-easterly was still going strong after the desired cold pooling accumulated.

Edited October 26, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[MPG]

UK MET still going for a zonal November, then blocking to appear in December and strengthen through into Jan & Feb. Good enough for me.

[tcc]

UK MET still going for a zonal November, then blocking to appear in December and strengthen through into Jan & Feb. Good enough for me.

 

Where have you seen that MPG? Ta

[iceman1991]

Where have you seen that MPG? Ta

??

[Bristawl Si]

UK MET still going for a zonal November, then blocking to appear in December and strengthen through into Jan & Feb. Good enough for me.

And this happens more often than a cold November and early December.

Winter 09/10 and early Winter 2010 distorted the view of a more standard UK Winter imo.

Down these parts colder and poss snowy Winter weather doesnt usually appear til after Xmas.....if at all!

Edited October 26, 2015 by Bristle boy

[Daniel*]

??

He was referring to MPG & how did he gather such information. MPG or is what you'd like to happen?

[Snowmad79]

One thing is for sure. As we head into November we need the Euro Mid lat blocking High resplaced with trough or the Jet will not be able to take its nose dive south and if it did we'd be stuck with Blustery SWerlies. Getting a wedge of blocking HP to our NE robust enough to force the jet underneath is very difficult to get in comparsion to a mid atlantic high that surges north towards Greenland and trough digging south through Scandi with easterly and NE'erly flow.

 

On the model thread I mentioned about the PV being stronger now than it was in this time frame during lead up to classic winters a few year back but one positive for me is the El Nino.

We've only had 5 strong+ El Ninos since 1950 and 60% of them lead to snowy winters for the UK. Overall, 65% of all El Nino's winters were terrible for the UK in terms of Snow. The current El Nino is still predicted to breach the +1.5 mark which is when these events are classed as Strong. With the PV strengthening will Nino be strong enough to drive weather conditions in our favour ?

 

I've consolidated some data into a blog RE:  El Nino vs UK winters http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/293/entry-4904-el-nino-vs-uk-winter/ which details the dates and strength category of El Ninos / UK winter classification of Mild & Dry / Cold & Snowy etc and what the corresponding winter was like thanks to a number of reports from NWeather and other sites. (Office Excel version attached).

 

 

 

 

nino vs winter.xls

[MPG]

Where have you seen that MPG? Ta

 

 

??

 

 

And this happens more often than a cold November and early December.

Winter 09/10 and early Winter 2010 distorted the view of a more standard UK Winter imo.

Down these parts colder and poss snowy Winter weather doesnt usually appear til after Xmas.....if at all!

 

 

He was referring to MPG & how did he gather such information. MPG or is what you'd like to happen?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

All there for you guys.

 

but here's a taste:

 

Edited October 26, 2015 by MPG

[tcc]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

All there for you guys.

 

but here's a taste:

 

 

Ah lovely, that's what it thought it would be but could never find it on their site, cheers!

[mountain shadow]

Ah lovely, that's what it thought it would be but could never find it on their site, cheers!

That chart seems to contradict their latest contingency forecast which is going for a primarily +NAO.

[Hocus Pocus]

That chart seems to contradict their latest contingency forecast which is going for a primarily +NAO.

All bases covered then.

[Snowmad79]

It just shows how inconclusive ENSO actually is on our side of the world. Winter could really go anywhere looking at that.

 

On its own yes. But at least you can see how all our past El Nino's winters have turned out. 65% of all El nino winters were terrible winters for the UK. But in the context of Weak Moderate and Strong. The stronger the El Ninos have been the better our winters were.

The meto experts obviously seem to think that an El Nino increases the probability of a positive NAO in late Autumn and Winter and is probably why 65% of previous Nino winters were terrible here Indeed though, you have to take a whole lot more into consideration.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Merry Christmas!

[solarcycle]

Merry Christmas!

image.jpg

 

Oh CFS! Why do you troll us so? 

[KDME]

Having read different sources regarding this winter, think it is best concluded that no one really knows. Some say El Nino is dead set to give us weeks of snow and ice, others say the phenomenon has little impact to our position on this planet.

Best to wait and see and keep calm

A lot of people draw parallels between weather conditions now and how thinga panned out in winters past. Are they worth doing? Feels a bit clutching at straws to me...

Hope this winter brings weather more akin to winter as opposed to a long drawn out 6 month autumn

[fergieweather]

That chart seems to contradict their latest contingency forecast which is going for a primarily +NAO.

No. The latest Contingency Planning summary is N-D-J. That GloSea5 output is J-F-M. Note cautionary comment by seasonal team re increased SSW potential late season in today's update. In other words, the message remains consistent: coherent, cross-model support for notion of milder/wetter/poss stormier start to winter, but potential for colder flip later (this clearly v uncertain of course). But the notion of broadly +ve NAO conditions into winter at least initially has been strongly signalled by the key output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal, EuroSip) for a while now.

[Hocus Pocus]

Not a huge fan of late winters as most rarely deliver in both longevity  and severity, bar 47 of course. I think if we start off with +NAO signature then it will be there for the duration of the winter months due to the West based QBO and strong Nino pattern, I think it will be a case of close but no cigar with any ridging tantalising close to our East but never quite backing Westwards enough to effect us for any length of time. 

[bobbydog]

Not a huge fan of late winters as most rarely deliver in both longevity  and severity, bar 47 of course. I think if we start off with +NAO signature then it will be there for the duration of the winter months due to the West based QBO and strong Nino pattern, I think it will be a case of close but no cigar with any ridging tantalising close to our East but never quite backing Westwards enough to effect us for any length of time.

to be fair, even some of our most memorable winters were not notable for longevity. take feb 1991 for example. people will remember 2 weeks of epic snowfall within a 3 month 'mildish' winter more than 3 months of below average temps with a few snow flurries thrown in

[Don]

Not a huge fan of late winters as most rarely deliver in both longevity  and severity, bar 47 of course. I think if we start off with +NAO signature then it will be there for the duration of the winter months due to the West based QBO and strong Nino pattern, I think it will be a case of close but no cigar with any ridging tantalising close to our East but never quite backing Westwards enough to effect us for any length of time.

Could be similar perhaps to Winter 2011/12, where it was predominantly mild until late January. It did turn much colder then, but the UK was right at the end of the cold line and it never really made it across to western parts or Ireland. The 2nd half of February 2012 was very mild. However, I think that Winter occured during a decaying La Niña?