Winter 2015/16

[AderynCoch]

Last winter or was it the winter before there was a local news report on quite a depth of snow accumulating on the top of a city skyscraper helipad. And on ground level not a trace just horrible cold rain. Viewing from observation deck of shard will often show snow descending into rain - depressing.

This must happen a lot in New York - so many tall buildings and pretty marginal winters. There must be many occasions when there's snow on top of the Empire State Building but rain at ground level.

[cheese]

Well Christmas day is looking rather unsettled according to the CFS... 

cfs1.png

 

Looking for some wintry charts... End of January! 

 

cfs2.pngcfs3.png

Those charts actually tie in well with many of the winter forecasts for Europe.. British Isles and Scandinavia cold, rest of Europe mild.

[Yarmy]

Well Christmas day is looking rather unsettled according to the CFS... 

cfs1.png

 

Looking for some wintry charts... End of January! 

 

cfs2.pngcfs3.png

 

That's the thing with the CFS, not sure which run your charts were taken from, but this is the current run on Meteociel for Christmas Day:

 

 

Greenland/Iceland blocking, southerly tracking jet, splintered polar vortex.

[Liam J]

That's the thing with the CFS, not sure which run your charts were taken from, but this is the current run on Meteociel for Christmas Day:

 

 

Greenland/Iceland blocking, southerly tracking jet, splintered polar vortex.

The charts I used were taken from Netweather Extra and it was the 00z Friday output... No surprise then that it was showing something very different on the next run!! The next one will probably churn out something different again... 

Edited October 17, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Stormyking]

White festive period anyone? 

 

 

This wlll change, but just for fun, that definitely be cold enough for snow right across the South and the rest of the UK

[Paul]

Strat thread for winter 15/16 now open

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/

[Bullseye]

Just seen the BBC weather posting todays highs/lows and I see that Braemar reached -5! And now I would like to know the lowest min for October, the closest I found to todays min was October 2009 at -4. Thanks in advance.

[cheese]

Just seen the BBC weather posting todays highs/lows and I see that Braemar reached -5! And now I would like to know the lowest min for October, the closest I found to todays min was October 2009 at -4. Thanks in advance.

Lowest October temperature in the UK is -11.7C at Dalwhinnie, 1948.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

That's the thing with the CFS, not sure which run your charts were taken from, but this is the current run on Meteociel for Christmas Day:

 

 

Greenland/Iceland blocking, southerly tracking jet, splintered polar vortex.

 

The really would be a beautiful thing   

[solarcycle]

That's the thing with the CFS, not sure which run your charts were taken from, but this is the current run on Meteociel for Christmas Day:

 

 

Greenland/Iceland blocking, southerly tracking jet, splintered polar vortex.

 

I let out a bit of wee looking at that one.

[bluearmy]

These are the best snow setups for the southern half of the UK

 

Rrea00119910207.gifRrea00219910207.gif

 

a real battleground pattern.Mild from the south west meets cold from the east and north.With cold air already established over us the fronts approaching dump a nice spell of widespread snow.

A pattern rarely seen these days unfortunately.

Interestingly that the 1991 chart is broadly where the extended modelling currently sits for the week 2 period, depending just where the blocking to our ene sets up home.

[phil nw.]

Interestingly that the 1991 chart is broadly where the extended modelling currently sits for the week 2 period, depending just where the blocking to our ene sets up home.

Looking at naefs anomals. yes i see Blue.Of course no real cold around yet but if that pattern sticks around later into November it might create a bit of interest.Those Scandi.hts seem to build a little closer at the end of the run as well.

[Snowyowl9]

James Madden is at it again:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/612369/SHOCK-CLAIM-World-is-on-brink-of-50-year-ICE-AGE-and-BRITAIN-will-bear-the-brunt

Who is he really,where does he get these crazy ideas from, is it to scare the averge public into fear that's all I see, as they are not interested in the weather generally,and never look or don`t know whats around the corner with the weather just whats happening now,or very rarely unless blowing a severe gale even look up at trees blowing in the wind when they fall break off.  etc.

Edited October 18, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[hillbilly]

Just seen the BBC weather posting todays highs/lows and I see that Braemar reached -5! And now I would like to know the lowest min for October, the closest I found to todays min was October 2009 at -4. Thanks in advance.

October.-5 ?...August is capable of nearly that having a record of -4.5 deg. Autumn seems very strange regarding temps with Octobers record of -11.7 deg,yet -11.4 was reached midmonth. November equally having -12.8 on the 12th and 13th yet jumping crazily to -23.3 deg on the 14th only 5 days before the end of the year have recorded lower temps ! 

[Deep Snow please]

According to the BBC's Quiz of the Week we're in for a cold winter because the Bewick's swan has turned up 25 days early.

[Deep Snow please]

Regarding Jan 6th 2010 it is actually the best single event I've ever seen. Snow arrived around 5am and lasted around 10 hours due to the wave which formed off the south coast, Leeds was fortunate to see the pivot right the way through. Accumulation from that one event was 21cm, I suspect the reason for that was that snow (already measured) was on the ground so it was a fresh and heavy event falling onto what was more or less a lair of ice.

 

Would you agree with me that Dec '09- Jan '10 is by far the best winter we've had in recent decades? Hoping for a repeat, could do with 10-20cm in one night again.

[hillbilly]

Would you agree with me that Dec '09- Jan '10 is by far the best winter we've had in recent decades? Hoping for a repeat, could do with 10-20cm in one night again.

If you were not around to witness winters between 1979 to 1986 I would agree but jan to april 2013 gives it a run for longevity with march 13 giving enormous drifts where 2010 failed except for very high ground !

[cheese]

Jan-Mar 2013 was certainly a good contender.. never very cold due to the cloud but lots of snow.

[summer blizzard]

Would you agree with me that Dec '09- Jan '10 is by far the best winter we've had in recent decades? Hoping for a repeat, could do with 10-20cm in one night again.

 

Yes, can't argue with a full month of snow on the ground (i had height and an element of rurality) although the falls in Feb were unremarkable but longlived. Peak was 29cm.

 

Nov-Dec 10 were good and peaked at 23cm but bar the Dec 2nd front it was all showers and actually it was a very dry month. Did survive the mild period though in the fields to reach 25 days on the ground.

 

Jan 13 although short has a special place for me in that it was all fronts, one after the other. It's just a shame i never got to measure at my parents after the final front because i had 16cm there beforehand so it may have ran Dec 10 close for the peak.

Jan-Mar 2013 was certainly a good contender.. never very cold due to the cloud but lots of snow.

 

Good period but Feb was very dry and March kind of felt unnatural although the drift was epic.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember that around Thirsk/Northallerton, January 2013's fronts produced a lot of wet snow at temperatures of 0.5-1.0C which resulted in a steady covering of 2-4cm, except for the front on the 25th which saw snow falling at around 0.0C and gave an aggregate of 12cm at 0900 the next morning.  Amusingly, that front had been forecast to bring snow followed by rain, but all of it fell as snow.  However, it was just cold enough to prevent the snow cover from turning slushy and icy at any stage, and I noted an impressive 13 consecutive days of >50% snow cover at 0900.  However, with a little more altitude, the snow depth increased significantly.  I remember that around the 20th there was over 10cm up Sutton Bank.

 

I remember going to an appointment near Middlesbrough on the 22nd, where I saw my first glimpses of the sun for a while, and as I entered the building, a fairly heavy snow shower moved in off the North Sea.  Due to east-coast snow showers the previous day, there was rather more snow lying there.  But when I left the building, to my surprise, I was greeted with grey skies and a rain/sleet mix, though the snow cover was only thawing very slowly.  Further inland around Thirsk/Northallerton, there was no significant thaw that day.

 

The Thirsk/Northallerton failed to get much snow from the frontal event of 22/23 March but on that occasion the issue was that the front stalled just to the SW, rather than marginality.  In general it seems that that area of the Vale of York is good for getting frequent lying snow, but not for achieving any particularly impressive snow depths, since it also tends to be moderately but not completely sheltered from showers off the North Sea.

Edited October 18, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[smith25]

Well its getting to the best time of the year folks!. Has the Murr man woken from the summer hibernation yet?. All I need now is extra supplies of coffee for the late nights and the "happy pills" ready for the last minute model wobbles.

[MidnightSnow]

Well its getting to the best time of the year folks!. Has the Murr man woken from the summer hibernation yet?. All I need now is extra supplies of coffee for the late nights and the "happy pills" ready for the last minute model wobbles.

Lol I also hibernate in the summer, first time I've visited this forum since the beginning of the year.

I'm also looking forward to late night model/lampost watching

[joggs]

And teits,we can't forget teits lol

[smith25]

And teits,we can't forget teits lol

Yep mustn't forget teits!

[Summer Sun]

Here's the 6th winter update from Gavin P if you haven't already seen it