Winter 2015/16

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Totally agree with you, the build up was something else.....Shame

 

most exciting on here, Jan '13 probably more so, that's when netweather had highest ever viewers, on 17th Jan '13

[terrier]

Well Ian Fergusons update on the model threat seems very bullish about a mild winter ahead. Don't think I've ever seen Ian so confident think they must have a lot of faith in the glosea model this year. Think this winter could be a record breaking but not for cold and snow. That if I'm reading his comments correctly.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well Ian Fergusons update on the model threat seems very bullish about a mild winter ahead. Don't think I've ever seen Ian so confident think they must have a lot of faith in the glosea model this year. Think this winter could be a record breaking but not for cold and snow. That if I'm reading his comments correctly.

3 winters in a row without snow! I can't even........... ><

[cheeky_monkey]

I have suggested a separate thread to discuss winters past etc, events, so this one sticks to posts about the upcoming winter.

 

Now may be a good time for such a thread?

Agreed I have just had to wade through 2 pages of waffle about posters reminiscing about the odd flake here and there sometime ago to get to anything relevant about the upcoming winter I had to check the title to make sure I was in the right thread.

[Paul]

Anyone is free to make a thread so rather than moaning about things, it's surely just as easy to do your bit for the community and start a thread which you think will be of interest. But if no-one has started a winter's past one within the next couple of hours I'll do it....

[cobbett]

Well Ian Fergusons update on the model threat seems very bullish about a mild winter ahead. Don't think I've ever seen Ian so confident think they must have a lot of faith in the glosea model this year. Think this winter could be a record breaking but not for cold and snow. That if I'm reading his comments correctly.

He's backing the form horse -like a lots of experts predicting Chelsea would win the premiership this year and look how thats panned out, so still hope !

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

He's backing the form horse -like a lots of experts predicting Chelsea would win the premiership this year and look how thats panned out, so still hope !

 

Allow me to quote him directly:

 

 

Important, given some of the more bizarre reactions posted lately:

In posting any snippets re seasonal output, I'm merely reflecting just that: the output. This is NOT the same as posting a prognosis.

Seasonal models are not like other operational NWP. They are a guide, yes. But they are not infallible. Moreover, as UKMO have repeatedly stressed, whilst pointers may lean towards milder/wetter/windier conditions into at least 1st half of winter, this does NOT preclude either colder spells nor does it preclude the minority probabilities (ie from tercile categories) becoming reality. It's all about probabilities, NOT deterministic forecasting. The latter is the sort of la-la-land espoused by Madden et al into longer range and it has zero scientific underpinning.

So, yes: EC and most GloSea5 members retain strong westerly mobility to early Dec. However, a few GloSea5 members become anticyclonic by early Dec. Whilst not currently favoured as outcome, it does show that we might see changes ahead, but it'll take a mammoth change in pattern to accomplish that by early next month.

Folk writing-off all winter just need to calm down. Winter hasn't even started yet!!

[Methuselah]

He's backing the form horse -like a lots of experts predicting Chelsea would win the premiership this year and look how thats panned out, so still hope !

IMO, if he were to back the most unlikely scenario there is, he'd be no better than James Madden? Thankfully, that is not the case. Forecasting the weather is not the same as picking one's favourite Lotto numbers!

[cobbett]

As the fergie quote on the previous pages alludes to - its all about probabilities so of course the probability will be a mild winter but I'm not attaching great significance to this - long range accurate forecasting is still a myth IMO !

[Catacol]

No reference at all to January and February in what Ian said. First half was as far as he hinted.

 

Read the detail - interpret the teleconnections and signals. Ignore the trolls.

[cobbett]

He did mention on another post that post Dec, it was looking pretty mild as well.

[Hocus Pocus]

No reference at all to January and February in what Ian said. First half was as far as he hinted.

Read the detail - interpret the teleconnections and signals. Ignore the trolls.

Wise words CH but inbetween the trolls and the half glass is empty types winter quickly becomes tiresome on here unless you learn to ignore those posters. Edited November 11, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[MPG]

As the fergie quote on the previous pages alludes to - its all about probabilities so of course the probability will be a mild winter but I'm not attaching great significance to this - long range accurate forecasting is still a myth IMO !

Yes and remember Fergie is only quoting what someone has told him from a model we don't have access to. Fergie isn't a meteorologist remember!

[Catacol]

Wise words CH but inbetween the trolls and the half glass is empty types winter quickly becomes tiresome on here unless you learn to ignore those posters.

Agreed - but everyone who knows a bit about our weather knows that we sit right on the boundary between continental cold and maritime warmth throughout our winter, and tiny adjustments in patterns can have a massive difference for us. When the atlantic is in charge then outside of the Highlands we struggle to see snow... but every single winter without fail we get periods of meridional flow that throw up all kinds of potential. My memory is littered with these. So people need to chill out a bit (no pun intended) and wait patiently for these opportunities to occur. 9 out of 10 times these will disappoint most people because rain rather than snow is our default setup... but it is those glorious 1 in 10 moments where the thicknesses are just right that we look forward to. And be in no doubt - we will have chances again this year.

 

For my part I'm very glad to see November mild and westerly. Our patterns rarely stay fixed for long - occasionally we will have a few weeks dominated by one weather type, but not often. On that basis if we had blocking now we would be looking at a change once we get into winter proper. Let's have mobility now - indeed let's have it right up until the second half of December... and then the change when it comes has a chance of giving us air cold enough to make a difference,

 

In the meantime we just have to suffer the gloomy twerps who enjoy telling us - as if we dont already know - that our dominant weather type is westerly and hence usually mild for our line of latitude. I dont quite know why they bother to be honest - I guess they must think we are all as dull as they are in their desire to state the bl**din obvious. Monster El Nino or not - our weather comes off the atlantic most of the time. Not a terribly exciting observation.

Edited November 11, 2015 by Catacol_Highlander

[Methuselah]

Yes and remember Fergie is only quoting what someone has told him from a model we don't have access to. Fergie isn't a meteorologist remember!

So what does one have to be in order to be a Fellow of The Royal Meteorological Society, then - a plastic surgeon?

[MPG]

So what does one have to be in order to be a Fellow of The Royal Meteorological Society, then - a plastic surgeon?

Could well be, but being a meteorologist certainly isn't required!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

So what does one have to be in order to be a Fellow of The Royal Meteorological Society, then - a plastic surgeon?

 

Presumably he is a Meteorologist, then?  I certainly thought he was...

[MPG]

Presumably he is a Meteorologist, then?  I certainly thought he was...

A biologist

[Methuselah]

A biologist

So, he'll no-doubt know the difference between proper science and wishful thinking?

[Bobd29]

Yes and remember Fergie is only quoting what someone has told him from a model we don't have access to. Fergie isn't a meteorologist remember!

Fergie is a fully fledged, highly qualified professional meteorologist....we are fortunate to have his insight and reflection on Exeter thoughts. The message may not always be what we want to hear but as they say, don't shoot the messenger he is just stating it as it is...carry on Fergie

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

A biologist

 

Same as me, though I'm not a shark specialist as he is.

 

So, he'll no-doubt know the difference between proper science and wishful thinking?

 

[Paul]

Errm, and this has what to do with the winter of 2015/16?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Errm, and this has what to do with the winter of 2015/16?

 

Discussing the credentials of someone whose insight is relevant?

[John Badrick]

Agreed - but everyone who knows a bit about our weather knows that we sit right on the boundary between continental cold and maritime warmth throughout our winter, and tiny adjustments in patterns can have a massive difference for us. When the atlantic is in charge then outside of the Highlands we struggle to see snow... but every single winter without fail we get periods of meridional flow that throw up all kinds of potential. My memory is littered with these. So people need to chill out a bit (no pun intended) and wait patiently for these opportunities to occur. 9 out of 10 times these will disappoint most people because rain rather than snow is our default setup... but it is those glorious 1 in 10 moments where the thicknesses are just right that we look forward to. And be in no doubt - we will have chances again this year.

 

For my part I'm very glad to see November mild and westerly. Our patterns rarely stay fixed for long - occasionally we will have a few weeks dominated by one weather type, but not often. On that basis if we had blocking now we would be looking at a change once we get into winter proper. Let's have mobility now - indeed let's have it right up until the second half of December... and then the change when it comes has a chance of giving us air cold enough to make a difference,

 

In the meantime we just have to suffer the gloomy twerps who enjoy telling us - as if we dont already know - that our dominant weather type is westerly and hence usually mild for our line of latitude. I dont quite know why they bother to be honest - I guess they must think we are all as dull as they are in their desire to state the bl**din obvious. Monster El Nino or not - our weather comes off the atlantic most of the time. Not a terribly exciting observation.

 

 

 

 

I 2nd that.....couldn't put it better myself

Edited November 11, 2015 by John Badrick

[Mair Snaw]

Fergie is a fully fledged, highly qualified professional meteorologist....we are fortunate to have his insight and reflection on Exeter thoughts. The message may not always be what we want to hear but as they say, don't shoot the messenger he is just stating it as it is...carry on Fergie

Well said... im surprised he bothers to come back tho coz everytime he post something that the majority in here including myself want all hell brakes out... if he came back in here and saw all this in the posts above i would not blame him if he didnt bother to come back... some people really need to chill out and be grateful that we have somebody like Ian to come in here and give us an idea of what the experts at the Met Office are thinking.. yes i know they sometimes get it wrong.. but thats the weather for you, you can never be sure until its on your doorstep really...we should value Ian's input and thank him for taking the time to come on here and give us the updates that he does..