Winter 2015/16

[Nouska]

Solar minimum to cause 3years of cold winters Should our current solar cycle continue to follow the same course as Solar Cycle 12, then we may have an indicator for the upcoming 3 winters. Using the winters of solar Cycle 12, we see that the next three winters correspond to the winters of 1885/86, 1886/87, 1887/88 (marked yellow in the above chart). They were all colder than normal, which tells us that this coming 2015/16 winter and the 2 winters to follow are also likely to turn out to be colder than normal,http://wchildblog.com/2015/10/15/solar-analysis-shows-that-coming-3-uk-winters-poised-to-be-cold-ones-strong-similarity-to-sc-12/

 

Hi Keith. When Gavin first made the video I had a look back at the charts but no means at that point to see monthly circulation anomalies. The newly created 'way back' ESRL V2c now let's us look at the monthly composites for that winter. A weak el Nino featured but that's about all we know apart from the low solar cycle. Looking at height anomalies in the SW of N. America, I suspect the Nino was central rather than basin wide.

 

Here's the three months in question - will be intriguing to see if there are any similarities.

 

       

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl

[iceman1991]

Solar minimum to cause 3years of cold winters Should our current solar cycle continue to follow the same course as Solar Cycle 12, then we may have an indicator for the upcoming 3 winters. Using the winters of solar Cycle 12, we see that the next three winters correspond to the winters of 1885/86, 1886/87, 1887/88 (marked yellow in the above chart). They were all colder than normal, which tells us that this coming 2015/16 winter and the 2 winters to follow are also likely to turn out to be colder than normal,http://wchildblog.com/2015/10/15/solar-analysis-shows-that-coming-3-uk-winters-poised-to-be-cold-ones-strong-similarity-to-sc-12/

Yes very true gavinweathervids has got a video on this very interesting indeed I think only one winter out other cycle has been diffrent but all the rest have been correct so far so hopefly the success rate will carry on time will tell

[cheeky_monkey]

Finished wearing out the old winter tyres this summer ,after all it was like winter most of the time up here until the end of July.

 

  Down to the minimum last Monday so new ones replaced them . Will we  need them in the next few months?

True winter tyers are only suppose to be used when the temperature is lower than 7c..above those temperatures they are potentially dangerous to use on a regular basis.

[Summer Sun]

5th month in a row Jamstec is going for below average surface air temp anomaly this winter away from the UK and the Scandi regions all of mainland Europe has above average surface air temp anomaly

 

 

Precipitation looks average for most of England and Wales but below average for NW Scotland, Northern Ireland and ROI

 

Edited October 16, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Nick L]

James Madden is at it again:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/612369/SHOCK-CLAIM-World-is-on-brink-of-50-year-ICE-AGE-and-BRITAIN-will-bear-the-brunt

 

The less people that click on this, the less publicity that charlatan will receive.

[karlos1983]

The less people that click on this, the less publicity that charlatan will receive.

 

Yes, if you look hard enough, just off the coasts of Britain, you can see the Icy waters closing in on us, oh no hang on, its the waves breaking....

Edited October 16, 2015 by karlos1983

[Cloudman]

True winter tyers are only suppose to be used when the temperature is lower than 7c..above those temperatures they are potentially dangerous to use on a regular basis.

The winter tyres available in the UK are made of soft rubber with a deep tread they are not studied 'snow tyres' but they are a big improvement over conventional tyres in ice and snow.

[iceman1991]

5th month in a row Jamstec is going for below average surface air temp anomaly this winter away from the UK and the Scandi regions all of mainland Europe has above average surface air temp anomaly

 

 

Precipitation looks average for most of England and Wales but below average for NW Scotland, Northern Ireland and ROI

 

Didnt jamstec get it terribly wrong last year and year before

[hillbilly]

True winter tyers are only suppose to be used when the temperature is lower than 7c..above those temperatures they are potentially dangerous to use on a regular basis.

Unless you have some really nobbly tyres and you drive at idiotic speeds it is not going to make any difference to normal driving and the average person will not know any difference.Sure they may make a little more noise and you could probably work out extra stopping distances in certain conditions but the benefits in colder conditions outway any negative impacts.Some insurers may need informing that you have them fitted but it will not affect any premium !

[cheeky_monkey]

 

True winter tyers are only suppose to be used when the temperature is lower than 7c..above those temperatures they are potentially dangerous to use on a regular basis.

Unless you have some really nobbly tyres and you drive at idiotic speeds it is not going to make any difference to normal driving and the average person will not know any difference.Sure they may make a little more noise and you could probably work out extra stopping distances in certain conditions but the benefits in colder conditions outway any negative impacts.Some insurers may need informing that you have them fitted but it will not affect any premium !

 

winters tyres shed their tread at a rapid rate in temps above 7c..having said that UK winter tyres may be the equivalent of all season tyres you get in Canada..in Canada winter tyres are made from a different rubber compound that does not become rigid and hard in sub zero temperatures but doesn't react well to warmer weather

[Northernlights]

True winter tyers are only suppose to be used when the temperature is lower than 7c..above those temperatures they are potentially dangerous to use on a regular basis.

 Well most of May and June and parts of July had nightime minimums below that so much so that this is the first summer that we had tp supplement the cattle at grass with extra feed as grass regrowth was so slow.However the last 8 weeks has seen some fantastic autumn  grass growth.Probably coming to an end now as 0c this morning

[solarcycle]

So gently steering back to discussion of winter 2015/16. I'd take one proper snow fall of several inches that lasts on the ground for a few days, enough so I can get out with my kids and build a snowman. 

 

I love cold weather but my concern is always the fact this country is useless at dealing with it and I hate the constant moaning from people who seem surprised winter exists every year.

 

Also can anyone tell me what accuracy rates the long range forecasting tools like JAMSTEC have? Is there one that is the best?

[cheeky_monkey]

So gently steering back to discussion of winter 2015/16. I'd take one proper snow fall of several inches that lasts on the ground for a few days, enough so I can get out with my kids and build a snowman. 

 

I love cold weather but my concern is always the fact this country is useless at dealing with it and I hate the constant moaning from people who seem surprised winter exists every year.

 

Also can anyone tell me what accuracy rates the long range forecasting tools like JAMSTEC have? Is there one that is the best?

im not sure this country is any more useless than any others TBH..as for moaning if this forum is anything to go by every kind of conceivable weather is subject to rants and moans constantly.

[Nick L]

I don't think the country generally is useless at coping with cold weather, I think it's just that individuals are useless at coping with it! Common sense seems to go out of the window when it comes to cold/snowy weather, especially on the roads (tip: If your wheels are spinning, putting your foot to the floor won't do much good).

[iceman1991]

So gently steering back to discussion of winter 2015/16. I'd take one proper snow fall of several inches that lasts on the ground for a few days, enough so I can get out with my kids and build a snowman.I love cold weather but my concern is always the fact this country is useless at dealing with it and I hate the constant moaning from people who seem surprised winter exists every year.Also can anyone tell me what accuracy rates the long range forecasting tools like JAMSTEC have? Is there one that is the best?

jamstec last year predicted colder than average last winter when that didnt happen preety sure it did the year before that aswell

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't think the country generally is useless at coping with cold weather, I think it's just that individuals are useless at coping with it! Common sense seems to go out of the window when it comes to cold/snowy weather, especially on the roads (tip: If your wheels are spinning, putting your foot to the floor won't do much good).

 

 

Partially agree with that but you of all people given your location (back then) should remember what 1 and a half inches of snow did one Wednesday evening in Jan 2004, it actually took my sister the same length of time to get home 7 miles as it did on 7th Feb 1991 evening when about 11 inches fell in about 5 hours.  The powers that be were weak, they didn't show enough GRIT and determination.

Edited October 16, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[cheeky_monkey]

Partially agree with that but you of all people given your location (back then) should remember what 1 and a half inches of snow did one Wednesday evening in Jan 2004, it actually took my sister the same length of time to get home 7 miles as it did on 7th Feb 1991 evening when about 11 inches fell in about 5 hours.  The powers that be were weak, they didn't show enough GRIT and determination.

Different kind of snow...travelling in dry powder snow  aka Feb 1991 is much easier and less hazardous than wet snow that quickly freezes aka Jan 2004

[feb1991blizzard]

Different kind of snow...travelling in dry powder snow  aka Feb 1991 is much easier and less hazardous than wet snow that quickly freezes aka Jan 2004

 

Feb 1991 still caused chaos though as well, anyway its a misconception that there was no moisture at all and that it was all fine powder, it was around 7 or 8 ocklock in the evening when the temp rose from -8c to -3c as some sort of occluded wrap around frontal system came through and there was a spell of some absolutely massive flakes and there were that many of them you wouldn't believe, an absolute belting we took.

[Methuselah]

Feb 1991 still caused chaos though as well, anyway its a misconception that there was no moisture at all and that it was all fine powder, it was around 7 or 8 ocklock in the evening when the temp rose from -8c to -3c as some sort of occluded wrap around frontal system came through and there was a spell of some absolutely massive flakes and there were that many of them you wouldn't believe, an absolute belting we took.

Aye, I remember the blizzard of Feb. 1979: temps of between -8 and -5C and flakes the size of half-crowns!

[Nick L]

Partially agree with that but you of all people given your location (back then) should remember what 1 and a half inches of snow did one Wednesday evening in Jan 2004, it actually took my sister the same length of time to get home 7 miles as it did on 7th Feb 1991 evening when about 11 inches fell in about 5 hours.  The powers that be were weak, they didn't show enough GRIT and determination.

 

It threw it down with rain and immediately snowed. What could the gritting teams have possibly done in Jan 04? Any grit left was washed off and it takes several hours to cover the whole network in any given area. There was bugger all that could have been done to have prevented the chaos.

 

And in any case, grit will not necessarily stop snow settling.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Nick L

[cheese]

It threw it down with rain and immediately snowed. What could the gritting teams have possibly done in Jan 04? Any grit left was washed off and it takes several hours to cover the whole network in any given area. There was bugger all that could have been done to have prevented the chaos.

 

And in any case, grit will not necessarily stop snow settling.

Our road is always gritted.. but it doesn't stop snow accumulating, unless it's a marginal affair. Like on 25 January 2013 - our road was gritted, but the snow was so incredibly heavy, and 6 inches fell within 4 hours, that the grit was completely useless. Only a plow is useful.

[Nick L]

Our road is always gritted.. but it doesn't stop snow accumulating, unless it's a marginal affair. Like on 25 January 2013 - our road was gritted, but the snow was so incredibly heavy, and 6 inches fell within 4 hours, that the grit was completely useless. Only a plow is useful.

 

Yep, exactly. People often overestimate the power of gritting. It's pretty useless when it comes to heavy snowfall.

[feb1991blizzard]

It threw it down with rain and immediately snowed. What could the gritting teams have possibly done in Jan 04? Any grit left was washed off and it takes several hours to cover the whole network in any given area. There was bugger all that could have been done to have prevented the chaos.

 

And in any case, grit will not necessarily stop snow settling.

 

True but you disagreed, you said collectively we cope well, maybe you should say that we don't but there's not much you can do rather than we cope well. London 09 another eg.

[cheeky_monkey]

True but you disagreed, you said collectively we cope well, maybe you should say that we don't but there's not much you can do rather than we cope well. London 09 another eg.

who does cope well?

[Weather-history]

Our road is always gritted.. but it doesn't stop snow accumulating, unless it's a marginal affair. Like on 25 January 2013 - our road was gritted, but the snow was so incredibly heavy, and 6 inches fell within 4 hours, that the grit was completely useless. Only a plow is useful.

Gritting is most effective when traffic is free flowing. If snow gets heavy, visibility drops, windscreen wipers work overtime clearing snow and the natural reaction is to slow down. Traffic builds up and soon as that happens, snow has more chance of accumulating and the more the snow accumulates, the slower the traffic gets, the snow ploughs then can't get through. It's a viscous circle.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Weather-history