Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015-2016: The Refreeze.

[knocker]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Well Knocks things are not looking too pretty up there? With Okhotsk saving us from it being a runaway record low year for ice I have to worry about the upcoming melt season? We saw , in 2012, a high extent/area finish to refreeze on the back of the 'ice factory' synoptic setting up over Bering....... we saw just what this late season growth outside the basin meant over the melt season that year.

This time ,with one of the 'cold poles' camped over Okhotsk ( with the other over Greenland?) we see a similar position developing? Ice over Barantsz/Kara is in an awful state so ,once Okhotsk submits to early melt, ice levels will be the lowest on record as we approach the 'high melt' end of the Season? This puts a lot of waters , on our side of the basin, under full sun for 24hrs a day. This , in its turn , will impact the 'bottom melt end of the season ( Aug/Sept) giving us the prospect of an 'ice free' geographic pole as our side of the basin eats into the central pack ( record Laptev bite this year???).

We also have the largest of the Nino impacts to roll out over the start/middle of the melt season ( due to the lag between max temps in the Nino regions and max global impacts) but we do not know how this will play out?

Why does all of this matter? Well the perfect melt storm synoptic may well return in 2017 ( if it follows the spacing of the two prior to 07'?) so the ice remaining in Sept/Oct may form the backbone of the ice that battles the next perfect melt storm. The last time we faced such we still had Paleocryistic ice in the mix and plenty of older ice under ten years old. We also had Beaufort cram full of ice ( prior to the partial melt outs we have seen over the past seasons) to fend of the worst of the seasons melt.

Sadly we no longer have such resilient ice as a reserve......

 

[stewfox]

DMI this year has shown an amazing consistent abnormality for warmth, nothing remotely similar since this data set started in 1958

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[knocker]

 

[Geordiesnow]

On 28/02/2016 at 1:57 PM, Gray-Wolf said:

This time ,with one of the 'cold poles' camped over Okhotsk ( with the other over Greenland?) we see a similar position developing? Ice over Barantsz/Kara is in an awful state so ,once Okhotsk submits to early melt, ice levels will be the lowest on record as we approach the 'high melt' end of the Season? This puts a lot of waters , on our side of the basin, under full sun for 24hrs a day. This , in its turn , will impact the 'bottom melt end of the season ( Aug/Sept) giving us the prospect of an 'ice free' geographic pole as our side of the basin eats into the central pack ( record Laptev bite this year???).

 

 

Got to say, the retreat from the Atlantic side of the Arctic is a real possibility, I been noticing for a while some lowish concentration of ice between Svalbard and the pole for a while now  and whilst this may change, it does seem to suggest the ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is quite thin this year. 

Beaufort is another area although a change in wind direction could push the ice again towards the land but either way, I think a record melt could well indeed happen this year, as you keep suggesting, if we get a 2007 style melt, then the ice is in big big trouble. I don't think a 2013 type summer is all that helpful either, we saw just how fragmented the ice was in that year and the ice is probably is in a worse state now. Something like 2014 will help the ice although hopefully we won't have a repeat of August 2014 which for the most part had 2007 style weather patterns. 

As for the hear and now, looks like Kara is in risk of losing further ice with winds projected to come in off the sea and not from the Russian landmass, 2012 had low ice all during the winter season but recovered slightly in March so potentially starting from a worse starting point. 

[knocker]

Consensus and consequences

Quote

The following brief communication was published on the The Cryosphere Discussions website two days ago: Does it matter exactly when the Arctic will become ice-free?

It's a good question, albeit a rhetorical one. The authors argue that a "robust definition of ice-free may reduce confusion in the community and amongst the public", and start by asking what the exact definition of ice-free is.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/03/consensus-and-consequences.html

[stewfox]

14 hours ago, knocker said:

Consensus and consequences

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/03/consensus-and-consequences.html

A fair definition which I have seen before

""The threshold of 1 million km2, rather than zero""".

Edited March 5, 2016 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sea ice volume now down to 2nd lowest on record, just above 2011, according to PIOMAS

[Gray-Wolf]

So we enter into melt season with ice extent/area/volume at the bottom of the pile? With Nino impacting over the start of the season are we to see an early start to losses?

[stewfox]

On ‎09‎/‎03‎/‎2016 at 9:12 PM, BornFromTheVoid said:

Sea ice volume now down to 2nd lowest on record, just above 2011, according to PIOMAS

Some of those max volume figures , winters end 2010s don't look far off min volume figures summers end in 1980s

[Singularity]

  

A half-decent cold wave moving through Europe for once - but of course this means cold air is again exported from the Arctic.

Interesting that the U.S. anomalies reflect a still fairly zonal pattern but with a big displacement south of the jet stream. A reflection of there no longer being a polar vortex over Canada/Greenland - just variable trop-based trough activity.

The blocking across the UK and extending toward Greenland at times looks to drive exceptional warmth in the area for the time of year and I fear GFS is being to quick to break it down in the longer-term.

Obviously at this time of year, even such large positive anomalies only really equate to a melt threat at the periphery of the Arctic and Greenland, but it does mean an early start to the melt season looks likely on the Atlantic side in particular, and with this being from a near record-low extent for mid-March;

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

The only lower year to this point was last year, and that saw some recovery of extent in the final week of March. Is there any way that could be achieved this year given the expected blocking patterns and exports of cold air to the mid-latitudes?

[Geordiesnow]

Its interesting those charts suggest warmth on the Atlantic side of the Arctic because it seems to me that for a change, the Atlantic sector will turn quite cold and we could see an increase in extent here. Having said that, I mentioned earlier in this thread is an increase in sea ice in the Atlantic side of the Arctic is actually a good thing for the melt season ahead as this would suggest the pacific side of the Arctic will likely to be quite 'warm' and this is look like exactly what we will see. 

the projected wind direction around Laptev would be favorable for an early polynya to form if winds continued to come off the Russian landmass later on in the season, I believe this is one of the reasons why 2014 had such a large polynya so early in the melt season. 

When will the first 0C hpa enter the Basin? I have to say, the PV over the landmasses this winter looked rather weak compared to recent years so could we see an early heat up of the landmasses? Obviously the jet stream will play a role in that regardless of how weak the PV is but with the affects of the El Nino still playing a part, I would not be surprised if we see warm air being at high latitudes quite early in the season. 

Also will this be the year where a hot pool of 20+C enters the basin? I think it happened very briefly in July 2010 but it has been threatening at times since. Ifr am looking forward to this melt season, its going to be a really interesting one because It does seem the sea ice this year is quite vulnable and with talk of residual heat from El Nino then things could get rather interesting in the Arctic this summer. Conversely, we could see a cold summer and that will be interesting how much of an affect that will have on the Sea ice. 

One area of interest too me is between Svalbard and the pole, I keep looking at the Breman sea ice concentrations every day and for the majority of the time, there has been quite low concentrations here which suggests the ice is not all that thick between these 2 areas so just how far will the retreat be this year, could be quite a sharp retreat if the area gets constant Southerly winds so that is one to watch for sure. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I wonder if we've passed the maximum for CT sea ice area? The latest day has a drop of 175k, and it might be difficult to make that up before the melt season season begins.

Barring a record late March increase, it seems certain that we'll have the lowest sea ice area on record too. The maximum so far has been 12.885 million km2, that's 259k less than the previous record low of 13.144 million km2 set in 2011.

[Singularity]

Funny thing is, I was looking at the model output for the next 10 days or so and thinking it looked good for the ice on the Atlantic side in that it maintains a flow from Siberia to east of Greenland for much of the time, with cold air in abundance... but I had lost sight of just how far north the sea ice boundary is this year.

If you look at the anomalies, and consider that the belt of +10 or so anomalies represents where there is usually ice but this year there isn't, then it's clear that over the ice itself the temps are constantly above average. The cold air is being displaced over the open ocean between it and Scandinavia, where the SSTs are notably above average. So it may only serve to dampen or remove those SST anomalies, while the sea ice actually suffers due to the displacement of hold air away from the high Arctic.

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Despite this predicament, there has recently been some expansion and that has taken 2016 above 2015. I guess that may have been away from the Atlantic side? Perhaps it's that peninsula extending off Newfoundland following the recent cold wave there, which has become larger than usual: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/  (Look at Daily Image Update).

The most recent observation shows a slight drop so it will be interesting to see if that is a new trend or just one of the usual wobbles. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Comparing 23 February with today, there clearly has been some regrowth on the Atlantic side, but the earlier extent was so anomalously low that the sea ice extent there remains well below what we saw there in the past three Marches.

I note that the area just to the north of Svalbard is remaining stubbornly ice-free.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ice coverage around Svalbard has been at or close to record lows for months now.

Sea ice area looks like creeping back up close to the previous high for this year over the next few days. If the passes it, it's still almost certain to remain as lowest area maximum on record though.

However, with a continuation of +ve temperature anomalies over Okhotsk and the return of +ve anomalies over the Atlantic side by the weekend, we could be set up for the melt season to kick off properly quite soon.

[Singularity]

Thanks for the updates. I really do have a bad feeling about how at least the first half of this season may play out.

[reef]

The ice to the east of Svalbard is literally nothing. It doesn't even show up on the ice thickness maps:

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

There's some very thin areas on the Pacific side too. In fact, away from north of Greenland, its looking quite poor.

I would not be surprised if outside of the area from Fram to the Pole and the Pole to the western edge of the Canadian Archipelago we lose the lot this summer, much like 2012.  There's a distinct lack of very cold air around too, suggesting an early warmup even compared to that year:

  

No 850hPa air of -20C or below over the entire Arctic ocean already and its only just passed the Equinox!

[stewfox]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

Thanks for the updates. I really do have a bad feeling about how at least the first half of this season may play out.

Is there going to be a forecast thread ?

[knocker]

2015/2016 Winter analysis

Quote

The extraordinary temperature anomalies in the Arctic since the start of the year haven't gone unnoticed in quite a few media outlets, and I apologize for not having joined the fray of actuality. On the other hand, context trumps actuality, as we need to compare to previous years and get a feel for what this prelude to the melting season may mean. In that sense, I'm early with this year's winter analysis (compared to last year). Let's start studying like crazy, shall we?

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/03/20152016-winter-analysis.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

From the NSIDC

The Arctic sets yet another record low maximum extent

 

BOULDER, Colo, March 28, 2016—Arctic sea ice was at a record low maximum extent for the second straight year, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA.

“I’ve never seen such a warm, crazy winter in the Arctic,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze. “The heat was relentless.” Air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean for the months of December, January and February were 2 to 6 degrees Celsius (4 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in nearly every region.

Sea ice extent over the Arctic Ocean averaged 14.52 million square kilometers (5.607 million square miles) on March 24, beating last year’s record low of 14.54 million square kilometers (5.612 million square miles) on February 25. Unlike last year, the peak was later than average in the 37-year satellite record, setting up a shorter than average ice melt season for the coming spring and summer.

More here https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sets-yet-another-record-low-maximum-extent

[stewfox]

On ‎29‎/‎03‎/‎2016 at 11:40 AM, BornFromTheVoid said:

From the NSIDC

The Arctic sets yet another record low maximum extent

 

BOULDER, Colo, March 28, 2016—Arctic sea ice was at a record low maximum extent for the second straight year, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA.

“I’ve never seen such a warm, crazy winter in the Arctic,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze. “The heat was relentless.” Air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean for the months of December, January and February were 2 to 6 degrees Celsius (4 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in nearly every region.

Sea ice extent over the Arctic Ocean averaged 14.52 million square kilometers (5.607 million square miles) on March 24, beating last year’s record low of 14.54 million square kilometers (5.612 million square miles) on February 25. Unlike last year, the peak was later than average in the 37-year satellite record, setting up a shorter than average ice melt season for the coming spring and summer.

More here https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sets-yet-another-record-low-maximum-extent

Love the rhetoric

Interesting artic temps to date which I have extrapolated out to the end of 2016

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

well that's JAXA down over 200km over the past 2 days so melt season has begun!

As I have said before it is game over if we see the summer temps , on the DMI 80N chart, wander about as much as the winter temps. How many days of +12c over 2m ice would it take till we saw open water? More worryingly, how long of ocean temps at 6c take to demolish 2m of ice?

[stewfox]

6 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

well that's JAXA down over 200km over the past 2 days so melt season has begun!

As I have said before it is game over if we see the summer temps , on the DMI 80N chart, wander about as much as the winter temps. How many days of +12c over 2m ice would it take till we saw open water? More worryingly, how long of ocean temps at 6c take to demolish 2m of ice?

Most of the ice melt goes on outside of the DMI 80N although this year in the west that's a little less clear.

I think the first marker is when the melt ponds start to form on the floes of the Arctic sea ice pack.

 

 

[Singularity]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Just sneaking below 2006 now, so back to record low levels for the time of year.

A look at a selection of past years reveals that the extent taken in isolation is a poor predictor for summer extent - but factor in where the ice anomalies are, and you're better placed to foresee the trends. Glad to see some attempts at this taking place both here and elsewhere on the web 

 

Plenty more anomalous warmth to come across large parts of the globe, with the U.S. and NW Asia the notable exceptions. The Arctic itself looks steamy, in a relative sense. Particularly Greenland, though of course the base temps are very low indeed up on the ice sheet.

The way Europe and western Asia are looking reminds me of summer 2015.