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Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015

Allseasons-Si

By Allseasons-Si
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

A quick scan over the 50 EPS members and there isn't all that much support for a vigorous depression as per the GFS solution. Poss GFS overdoing it? Which wouldn't be unusual... 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted (edited)

The good news from this mornings model runs is that the Friday low pressure looks to have finally been worked out by the models. There's now very good agreement on the path it will take however some still have it deeper and stronger than others and over time this should be sorted.

 

The GFS has been consistent for a few runs now on the path and strength and goes for 35 to 40 mph mean wind speeds for the Western Isles and gusts of 55 to 65 mph.

 

post-6686-0-31264200-1446625809_thumb.pn post-6686-0-87160500-1446625809_thumb.pn

 

For Saturday it looks like most models agree with last nights ECM which showed it to be a lot weaker and head across central Scotland. This has good support at the moment. Parts of England and Wales may see top wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph in exposed locations.

 

post-6686-0-31968200-1446625810_thumb.pn post-6686-0-82446500-1446625810_thumb.pn

 

The models picked up on a possible low pressure passing again on Sunday. At 108 hours it still far out and will change but there is good agreement on the path and strength which will bring more wet and windy weather to much of the UK.

Edited by Zenarcher
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Just had a look at nmm and it doesn't show anything outstanding everything stay out well west. You guys and Girls isles are used too seeing much stronger winds than this while for us further south it would be more of interest. Overall the extremely quiet uneventful Autumn is continuing. :lazy:

post-2404-0-45526500-1446635136_thumb.pn

Edited by The PIT
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Yep, things have been toned down over recent runs, the GFS does have a tendency to over deepen depressions compared to other models. A few days ago it was showing gusts in excess of 80mph across some northern parts, but now looking more like 50-55mph will be nearer the mark.  

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted

Yep, things have been toned down over recent runs, the GFS does have a tendency to over deepen depressions compared to other models. A few days ago it was showing gusts in excess of 80mph across some northern parts, but now looking more like 50-55mph will be nearer the mark.

GFS on acid again ,besides don't want wind that strong anyway :)....
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Not quite, looking livelier than it has been over recent weeks :D

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

This eveings GFS shows a possible switch to more mobile conditions which may blow a few leaves off. Will have to wait until next week too see if it doesn't back track.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Monday according the GFS 12z looks like it could be very windy for a large part of the UK & Ireland, Irish Sea would be rough with gusts over 65mph.

 

post-9615-0-90783500-1446660830_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-09972100-1446660837_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-17054900-1446660845_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Yup but too far away seen these disappear on the next run. ECM seems to be in agreement at the moment

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

The stormy weather still looks to be on with the 06oz run. Not going to totally convinced until we get down to T69. At the moment it looks a very brief spell of stormy weather but at least something of interest at last.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Yes, Monday is still looking very windy. Some shading on these charts would suggest gusts close to 70mph for exposed parts of Ireland in the morning and then Isle of Man & north Irish Sea, 50-60mph+ for some inland locations.

 

post-9615-0-13173100-1446723014_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-44398200-1446723019_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-75619900-1446723026_thumb.pn

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Yeah the last remaining leaves will be stripped and poss a few branches with them if the some of the current charts are near the mark.. 

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

  

If that was to come off, then I assume that that would be the first named storm of the season (Storm Abigail).

When I spoke to the Met Office they said this...

 

 

A storm will be given a name when it is deemed to have the potential to cause substantial impacts in the UK and/or Ireland. By this, we mean that there must be a severe weather warning in place which falls within the highest impact levels (amber or red, as a general rule).

And on current guidance I cannot see an amber warning being issued, yellow yes, Tomasz on the BBC weather at 13:30 hinted at the potential for very strong winds early next week. 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Still there this fleeting spell of active weather for Monday into Tuesday. Scotland will have a little fun Sunday as well.

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heccygabber Newbie

heccygabber

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: gales & snow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted (edited)

just 50mph gusts, nothing too impressive really since the gfs likes to over do it

hopefully we get a low that will give us gusts 70mph or more this year

Edited by heccygabber
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Is the first officially named storm heading towards our shores?

 

Headlines in some newspapers are suggesting storms at the weekend will be the first officially named storms of the winter. Currently the Met Office and Met Eireann have not issued severe weather warnings for the strong winds this weekend, and we have not named the storms heading towards the UK and Ireland. However we are continuing to monitor the developing weather situation, and will let everyone know when any storm is officially named. We are expecting unsettled weather this weekend, with spells of rain and strong to gale force winds at times. The current forecast is for southern parts of the UK are expected to see the strongest winds on Saturday with 40-50mph gusts along parts of the south coast of England. Meanwhile during Sunday into Monday the north and northwest of the UK is likely to experience the windiest conditions. Here gusts of 50-60mph are possible. You can keep up to date with the latest forecast and warnings on our website.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/06/is-the-first-officially-named-storm-heading-towards-our-shores/

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Still in mix for Monday Northern England in the sixties north mildands may see 50 mph North West England and then Scotland should see some action Sunday as well.

 

 

 

 

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post-2404-0-95163000-1446802862_thumb.pn

Edited by The PIT
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Windy on Sunday afternoon through the Irish Sea and adjacent coasts then into Western Scotland during the evening, 50-60mph gusts.

 

Charts from NetWx-MR. 

 

post-9615-0-23610900-1446804809_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-63607800-1446804814_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-28905000-1446804820_thumb.pn

 

Further windy weather during Monday with gusts around 50-60mph once again, poss higher on Irelands Atlantic coastline. 

 

post-9615-0-98077200-1446804975_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-41178200-1446804981_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-15467200-1446804988_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted

Is the first officially named storm heading towards our shores?

 

Headlines in some newspapers are suggesting storms at the weekend will be the first officially named storms of the winter. Currently the Met Office and Met Eireann have not issued severe weather warnings for the strong winds this weekend, and we have not named the storms heading towards the UK and Ireland. However we are continuing to monitor the developing weather situation, and will let everyone know when any storm is officially named. We are expecting unsettled weather this weekend, with spells of rain and strong to gale force winds at times. The current forecast is for southern parts of the UK are expected to see the strongest winds on Saturday with 40-50mph gusts along parts of the south coast of England. Meanwhile during Sunday into Monday the north and northwest of the UK is likely to experience the windiest conditions. Here gusts of 50-60mph are possible. You can keep up to date with the latest forecast and warnings on our website.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/06/is-the-first-officially-named-storm-heading-towards-our-shores/

 

Surprised the storm on the 22nd of October wasn't the first named one as it brought gusts over 72 mph in the Western Isles and Northern Scotland. It also had a yellow warning out.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Surprised the storm on the 22nd of October wasn't the first named one as it brought gusts over 72 mph in the Western Isles and Northern Scotland. It also had a yellow warning out.

The Met Office told me a storm will only be given a name when there is a risk of significant impacts with amber or red warnings in place (as a general rule)

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