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Ed

That's my point, I don't think its the cold anomaly....I have suggested that Jetstream moved south prior to this as per Blizard81's post 

 

BFTP

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 It seems quite likely that the unusually cold North Atlantic has strengthened and pushed our jet stream south.

 

You said that , Fred?

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No Ed, look at post 44 by Gael Force....its a quote by Julia Slinigo to which I responded to.  For some reason when I try to respond to a post on this site it doesn't show who I am responding to.

Blizzard81 post clearly explains my post, he understood it clearly  

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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No Ed, look at post 44 by Gael Force....its a quote by Julia Slinigo to which I responded to.  For some reason when I try to respond to a post on this site it doesn't show who I am responding to, 

 

BFTP

But, Fred, I'm looking at your posts...So who did say that, if it wasn't you? You did post it, after all? Is posting someone else's thoughts really a good excuse?

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What the hell are you going on about Pete, read the following from post 44

 

Quote
Julia Slingo said this about the cool Atlantic....

 

Quote

 

Closer to home the North Atlantic is more than 2 degrees colder than normal. It seems quite likely that the unusually cold North Atlantic has strengthened and pushed our jet stream south, also contributing to the low pressure systems that have dominated our weather

 

 

 

Is that any clearer Pete?  And if you read my posts which you clearly are not because I have just said it is a quote from Julia Slingo to which I disagree with.......as I believe the jet shifte south prior to this

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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The polar jet stream has been gradually moving north over the last few decades, along with the northward expansion of the Hadley Cell. There is evidence that the jet stream waves have become more amplified, but none that's it's moved further south overall. 

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The jetstream had moved polewards in line with the expansion of the ITCZ [which now seems to have reversed] during 20th century and there is evidence that the jet has shifted equatorwards, not just become more meridional.  I suppose it will be down to which establishment you take note of BFTV, just like AGW or not.

 

BFTP

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I'm not aware of any scientific, objective evidence of a southward shift in the northern polar jet. Unless you can point to some studies suggesting otherwise?

 

If by establishment you mean qualified research scientists vs some amateur enthusiasts and bloggers, I'll stick with the scientists.

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BFTV, I read hat too re shift north of Jet last century and I agree it did.  The stronger and more frequent hurricanes scientifically forecast flopped somewhat though.  Probably because its shifted back south ......

 

 

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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What the hell are you going on about Ed, read the following from post 44

 

 

 

Is that any clearer Ed?  And if you read my posts which you clearly are not because I have just said it is a quote from Julia Slingo to which I disagree with.......as I believe the jet shifte south prior to this

 

 

 

BFTP

Yes BFTP, the jet seems to have ventured south far more often over the last 8 or 9 years or so compared to the 90's and early noughties. This imo has contributed greatly to our poor, wet summers since 2007 and also the colder winters from 08/09 to 10/11.

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BFTV, I read hat too re shift north of Jet last century and I agree it did.  The stronger and more frequent hurricanes scientifically forecast flopped somewhat though.  Probably because its shifted back south ......

 

 

 

BFTP 

 

 

The polar jet hasn't really got much to do with hurricanes... So I take it that silly strawman you just toppled is there to cover-up the fact that you've got no analysis or evidence to suggest the jet stream has moved south then?

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Some more on the AMO here:

 

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140225/ncomms4323/full/ncomms4323.html

 

 


The forcing mechanism pacing the AMO remains subject to considerable debate. One school of thought holds that the AMO is driven by internal ocean variability and is related to multidecadal fluctuations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This notion is mainly based on climate model simulations with constant external forcing that exhibit multidecadal climate variability with a pattern and amplitude that resemble the observed AMO. It is supported by studies of distinct AMOC fingerprints, such as coherent, dipolar surface-subsurface temperature variations in the extratropical North Atlantic that are in-phase with the AMO.

 

There certainly appears to be a decline in the strength of the overturning circulation. Data is from the RAPID AMOC array http://www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc/

 

F1.large.jpg

 

 

 

This year's readings would be interesting given the SST anomaly observed, but I don't think they are available online (well not to the likes of us anyway  :D).

 

Anyone care to draw a trend line through that? Are we witnessing:

 

1. A natural attenuation of the overturning circulation consistent with the AMO?

2. A forced attenuation of the overturning circulation driven by North Atlantic freshening caused by melting Greenland ice?

3. Both or neither of the above?

 

Edit: To fix broken link as per Nouska. The perils of modern communication.

Edited by Yarmy
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Some more on the AMO here:

 

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140225/ncomms4323/full/ncomms4323.html

 

 

 

There certainly appears to be a decline in the strength of the overturning circulation (data is from the RAPID AMOC array http://www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc/):

 

F1.large.jpg

 

 

 

This year's readings would be interesting given the SST anomaly observed, but I don't think they are available online (well not to the likes of us anyway  :D).

 

Anyone care to draw a trend line through that? Are we witnessing:

 

1. A natural attenuation of the overturning circulation consistent with the AMO?

2. A forced attenuation of the overturning circulation driven by North Atlantic freshening caused by melting Greenland ice?

3. Both or neither of the above?

 

Your link has a smiley attached so doesn't work.   http://www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc/

 

The next trans-altantic RAPID cruise will take place on board the Discovery in Oct - Nov 2015 - the online data is from last cruise so I expect it will update after they collect figures this time.

 

The jet stream started to move south in the Atlantic when the ocean was warmer - could this be a mechanism for turning the AMO to cold mode?

 

The graph BFTV posted had two brief coolings on a twentyish year cycle; this being the third we'll soon see if it is also brief.

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Dr. Archer mentions the disturbing idea that northward movement of the

jet streams is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of

hurricanes.  That’s because jet streams tend to inhibit

hurricane formation, and they would be less well-positioned to do so,

if they move away from the equator.

 

 

 

No BFTV its out there but of course if it doesn't fit your AGW view it can't be true...now go and email the 'silly' Dr and her associates about her silly strawman theory.  There are other 'scientists' that quoted similar....

 

time to move on to other parts

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Must have missed this on TV.   Beluga whales filmed off NE coast of England.   Cooler sea temps could be a reason that they are 2,000 miles further south than usual apparently.

Apologies if posted previously:

 

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/beluga-whales-spotted-northumberland-coastline-9977012

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Must have missed this on TV.   Beluga whales filmed off NE coast of England.   Cooler sea temps could be a reason that they are 2,000 miles further south than usual apparently.

Apologies if posted previously:

 

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/beluga-whales-spotted-northumberland-coastline-9977012

 

The North Sea surface temps are above average though.

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The North Sea surface temps are above average though.

Didn't realise that Yarmy.   Whatever the reason though, must have been great to see.

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Looking at BFTV's analysis on page 2, the September composite reflects a jet well south of normal, yet the October one reflects a jet stream tending to track to the northwest of the UK. Very interesting to see such a huge change, though it's just about possible that an arm of the jet sinks way down toward Africa in the October chart.

 

For November, the composite suggests a lot of storm activity near the UK, and the southward extent looks to be a little further than usual. We also see a Scandi High signal, which is a logical accompaniment to a jet tracking south of the usual. Shades of November 2009, which was the wettest single month I've recorded in the past two decades. The following winter was interesting to say the least, but of course we only had a relatively weak, central-based El Nino that year.

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What with the possibility of another powerful vortex I suspect that the North Atlantic has cooled a lot due to the continued cold filter from the northeastern side of the states.

But will yet another year of a powerful vortex spawn similar seasons to last year.

Possible and will this matter if we can get a worthy strat warming event to diss place the vortex or even split it.

I suspect we will have a positive nao and ao.

With any note worthy blocking looking Scandinavia based.

Last summer also see blocking around Greenland but nothing last winter due to the vortex influence.

Maybe the El Niño influence might mix up the atmosphere enough to have a different pattern through the rest of this year into next.

But I don't like the look of the Pacific and the alantic sea surface temps this year.

But nice to see solar activity dropping like a stone we shall see

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Interesting the blocking around Greenland this summer but will be gone through winter

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Not sure about the track of the jet stream,but it has  strengthened a bit over the last 7 years or so compared to the long term mean

 

long term..post-2839-0-06759500-1441390584_thumb.pn  recent..post-2839-0-05180900-1441390576_thumb.pn

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Some more on the AMO here:

 

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140225/ncomms4323/full/ncomms4323.html

 

There certainly appears to be a decline in the strength of the overturning circulation. Data is from the RAPID AMOC array http://www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc/

 

This year's readings would be interesting given the SST anomaly observed, but I don't think they are available online (well not to the likes of us anyway  :D).

 

Anyone care to draw a trend line through that? Are we witnessing:

 

1. A natural attenuation of the overturning circulation consistent with the AMO?

2. A forced attenuation of the overturning circulation driven by North Atlantic freshening caused by melting Greenland ice?

3. Both or neither of the above?

 

Edit: To fix broken link as per Nouska. The perils of modern communication.

 

Thanks for your "more info on the AMO" link Yarmy - that's a very interesting paper. Having read it a couple times, my take is that from a study looking at 450 years of measurements, volcanic activity turns out to have the strongest correlation with changes to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with solar activity having an impact, but weaker.

 

Also that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as a moderating influence on the AMO, rather than a driver. Therefore a weakening AMOC is less able to impact factors affecting the AMO (i.e. the AMOC moderates the impact of volcanic & solar activity).

 

So (if I've read it correctly), the paper concludes by suggesting that the last Little Ice Age was due to a weak AMOC that was unable to stop the impact on AMO from the combined forces of volcanic activity and solar activity.

 

How very interesting, as we have an increasingly negative (low temp SST) AMO whilst the AMOC is also weakening and unable to counter the impact?

 

Any other interpretations?

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Interesting the blocking around Greenland this summer but will be gone through winter

What else can you foresee? :nonono:

post-19153-0-47634100-1441398245_thumb.j

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