Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Spikecollie]

Just been looking at the model output discussion and it does look like a nice stretch ahead. Over here in France we're progged a few days even getting into the higher 20s, so if you share that in the UK it is a nice start to Autumn.

[Methuselah]

Yes but the knowledge of the physical laws, the understanding of natural processes,  the advent of numerical forecasting and ever increasing computer power means the guessing has become more refined.

Try telling that to James Madden and Nathan Rao!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

From 0ctober 1st, washout, expect ECM to backtrack towards GFS like mad, ECM producing 'fantasy' FI charts again

[mushymanrob]

looking foreward to some anticyclonic conditions... especially if we import some cloud or drier air off the continent to help kill off the bloody dew... i hate dew, i dislike working in the rain, i hate this time of the year with its cool, damp, musty mornings.

[Yarmy]

ECM this morning has impressive retrogression of the high pressure cell from Scandinavia to the mid-Atlantic at T144 onwards:

 

 

 

T240

 

 

A more than decent outlook. Might get a decent Autumnal display of colour this year.

[Evening thunder]

I don't really see anything to be excited about this high pressure for me considering the BBC 10 day forecast has continual 16/17C maxima and mostly cloudy conditions (i.e bland weather), as do other on-line forecasts (Although some e.g. those based on GFS have more sun).

 

I'd welcome pleasant warmth into the 20's but even the ECM reflects how temps don't always reflect uppers from now on, with it only going for the high teens on the now only two days where 10C+ uppers are over us.

 

This should have happened a month ago. Still, I guess there may be some nice misty mornings and pleasant sunny days if we're lucky (though it may be a hazier atmosphere than sunny conditions in a westerly flow). 

Edited September 23, 2015 by Evening thunder

[knocker]

Well down here in the tropics the rain nipped through here quicker than expected and it's smashing day here now. Variable types of cloud, no wind and quite warm. At this rate the dafs will be out in October.

[markyo]

_{Looking like a decent set up weather wise for next 5days,cool mornings and gentle warmth by the afternoon,who could complain at that!}

[davehsug]

Now seems safe to thank the weather Gods, for what looks like a nice calm crossing to Spain on Sunday & Monday & back to Portsmouth on Tuesday. Not much chance of a thunderstorm in Southern Biscay, but looks sunny & warm & plenty of dolphins & with any luck the odd whale! (beer may also feature)

[knocker]

There are now definite signs that winter is aproachinng

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2015 by knocker

[solarcycle]

It is all rather civilised on the model output thread at the moment. How long until the usual winter trolling, extreme toy throwing and ill informed posters claiming to be experts begins? I'd hate to be a mod here.

[Yarmy]

ECM still pushing the retrogression theme, while the other models are not really interested.

 

I'm not a great fan of analogue years for prediction, but I read recently (can't remember where) that the last time such a steep thermal gradient between the colder-than-average North Atlantic and warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic was observed was 1969. Looking through the reanalysis charts for October 1969, it was a dry, mild month with HP always lurking in or around the British Isles and the Atlantic kept firmly at bay.

[solarcycle]

That's the unfrotunate thing, to be honest. The MOD is much better in summer because people post and comment on what the models are actually showing. On the other hand in winter anyone who posts anything other than charts that show extreme cold and blizzards, which are usually right out in the deepest depths on fantasy island, gets slaughtered. On top of that, as you said, you get the rediculous hyping merchants (their names I will not mention) who try to convince us that it will be the coldest winter on record every autumn, and yet people still seem to listen to them. That's where the toy throwing bit comes in

 

With my little rant out of the way, I will bring this back to the models. I'm looking forward to this high pressure system actually. Despite not being a lover of cold temperatures, I am quite looking forward to the possibility of warm afternoons and maybe a lght frost in the morning. I think it will be a very seasonable spell of weather, to be honest.

 

I'm looking forward to some classic sunny and crisp autumn weather too. Long may the models show this kind of weather. I have to say what winds me up is those who have no real knowledge but learn a few nwp/meteorological stock phrases to sound pseudo-intellectual. But I'll leave it there. I'm always happy to ramp up sunshine!

[cheeky_monkey]

That's the unfrotunate thing, to be honest. The MOD is much better in summer because people post and comment on what the models are actually showing. On the other hand in winter anyone who posts anything other than charts that show extreme cold and blizzards, which are usually right out in the deepest depths of fantasy island, gets slaughtered. On top of that, as you said, you get the rediculous hyping merchants (their names I will not mention) who try to convince us that it will be the coldest winter on record every autumn, and yet people still seem to listen to them. That's where the toy throwing bit comes in

 

With my little rant out of the way, I will bring this back to the models. I'm looking forward to this high pressure system actually. Despite not being a lover of cold temperatures, I am quite looking forward to the possibility of warm afternoons and maybe a lght frost in the morning. I think it will be a very seasonable spell of weather, to be honest.

yep looking forward to some lovely autumn days and cool crisp nights..not looking forward to all the winter trolls who are now stirring from their spring summer hibernation and are joyously announcing their return like the second coming

[Milhouse]

The sight of a large area of high pressure is making me think of those misty Autumnal cool mornings developing into warm, calm and sunny afternoons. The models are looking grand at the moment.

[tempestwatch]

Would this type of scenario with dominant high pressure be more likely in El Nino years? What are the chances of this extending into winter and providing some good setups for cold?

[markyo]

That's the unfrotunate thing, to be honest. The MOD is much better in summer because people post and comment on what the models are actually showing. On the other hand in winter anyone who posts anything other than charts that show extreme cold and blizzards, which are usually right out in the deepest depths of fantasy island, gets slaughtered. On top of that, as you said, you get the rediculous hyping merchants (their names I will not mention) who try to convince us that it will be the coldest winter on record every autumn, and yet people still seem to listen to them. That's where the toy throwing bit comes in

 

With my little rant out of the way, I will bring this back to the models. I'm looking forward to this high pressure system actually. Despite not being a lover of cold temperatures, I am quite looking forward to the possibility of warm afternoons and maybe a lght frost in the morning. I think it will be a very seasonable spell of weather, to be honest.

Couldn't agree more,the summer posts and comments are by far more accurate and informative,the winter months seem to bring out the straw clutching chumps who are here just to wind people up.

[Paul]

It's easy to sit on the sidelines and snipe about other posters etc, and it doesn't half look a bit contradictory to on one hand be bigging up how 'nice' the model thread is at the moment, then on the other hand calling people trolls etc. 

 

So can we drop it please, it's September - there are no problems in the model thread right now, and hopefully we'll keep it that way throughout the autumn and winter. It's a bit counter-productive say you hope it'll stay peaceful and then to essentially be picking fights with people!

 

This is the model moans/banter thread, not the picking on people thread...

[cheeky_monkey]

As a suggestion - it's easy to sit on the sidelines and snipe about other posters etc, but it doesn't half look a bit contradictory to on one hand be bigging up how 'nice' the model thread is at the moment, then on the other hand calling people trolls etc. 

 

So can we drop it please, it's September - there are no problems in the model thread right now, and hopefully we'll keep it that way throughout the autumn and winter. It's a bit counter-productive say you hope it'll stay peaceful and then to essentially be picking fights with people!

 

This is the model moans/banter thread, not the picking on people thread...

its a nice sentiment but you never have... it fact it gets worse year on year

[Paul]

its a nice sentiment but you never have... it fact it gets worse year on year

 

I don't agree tbh, but anyway - this is off topic, and I'm sure you'd have to agree that publicly digging at people in advance is not exactly going to help the team or the forum at large in keeping things peaceful...

[solarcycle]

If someone invented a method of NWP tomorrow that had 100% verification would you be pleased or disappointed that some of the fun of uncertainty had gone out of the business?

[Wildswimmer Pete]

ECM still pushing the retrogression theme, while the other models are not really interested.

 

I'm not a great fan of analogue years for prediction, but I read recently (can't remember where) that the last time such a steep thermal gradient between the colder-than-average North Atlantic and warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic was observed was 1969. Looking through the reanalysis charts for October 1969, it was a dry, mild month with HP always lurking in or around the British Isles and the Atlantic kept firmly at bay.

The last few days of September 1969 were exceptionally warm, with temps in the mid-70s F (we thought in old money then).  Mid-October saw a relatively quick transition from warm to more seasonal (ie chilly) temps with overcast skies.  Autumn/Winter '69/70 were pretty meh, the coldest time of that winter was early March '70.  This was in Wirral.

[Daniel*]

It is all rather civilised on the model output thread at the moment. How long until the usual winter trolling, extreme toy throwing and ill informed posters claiming to be experts begins? I'd hate to be a mod here.

Not long I thought last year was quite civilised compared to other years and some really good posts to boot.

Edited September 24, 2015 by Daniel*

[Polar Maritime]

Ok. Lets get bock to discussion based around the models in here. Any more off topic posts will be removed.

Many Thanks, PM.

[Daniel*]

If someone invented a method of NWP tomorrow that had 100% verification would you be pleased or disappointed that some of the fun of uncertainty had gone out of the business?

The uncertainty makes it interesting.