Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16

[Liam J]

There's a new game afoot called, 'who can cherry pick the best perturbation post T240'. First prize is a weekend for two in Oymyakon and a box of NW mars bars.

All part of the model watching winter fun I guess... I'm sure most people know the charts that far out on the GFS need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt and a heap of caution! Yesterday it was showing the Euro high and a continuation of the mild theme of late, today it's showing a colder theme again... GFS is known for it's wild swings in FI and after a few days now of colder charts out in FI they are still just that and haven't come any closer to the reliable time-frame... Until that happens I remain unconvinced. 

Edited November 8, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[summer blizzard]

I'd not worry too much for now, the current pattern over the US is not yet defined enough for a Nino event so the dominant winter pattern had probably not manifested yet.

[Captain Shortwave]

After a weekend up north, I can start to understand how awful these south westerlies can be. A literal rain maker and this really is shown on the GFS precipitation predictions.

 

Potentially a foot of rain over the Scottish highlands with high totals predicted over many western areas. Yet pretty much nothing for central/southern and eastern England as the rain struggles to reach these areas.

[SLEETY]

anyone looked at previous mild novembers to see how the following winters turned out yet.I'd rather have this very mild weather now then jan or febuary anyway.plenty of time for dramatic changes yet.Well james madden is forcasting a severev winter,thats good enough for me 

[MP-R]

Well if Ian F's comment in the model thread is correct, and the theme of zonality continues a good way into December, let's at least get some Pm zonality - that's the only good zonality in my opinion, sort of a la 2014/15. We were quite lucky that last year's Atlantic periods were predominantly Pm not what we're stuck with now.

[snowblizzard]

Well if Ian F's comment in the model thread is correct, and the theme of zonality continues a good way into December, let's at least get some Pm zonality - that's the only good zonality in my opinion, sort of a la 2014/15. We were quite lucky that last year's Atlantic periods were predominantly Pm not what we're stuck with now.

Extremely depressing outlook for cold & snow lovers in UK!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well if Ian F's comment in the model thread is correct, and the theme of zonality continues a good way into December, let's at least get some Pm zonality - that's the only good zonality in my opinion, sort of a la 2014/15. We were quite lucky that last year's Atlantic periods were predominantly Pm not what we're stuck with now.

 

Can't really expect anything else, especially in Dec the most westerly month of the year, surprised PM air delivers for you, what's your elevation?

[MP-R]

Can't really expect anything else, especially in Dec the most westerly month of the year, surprised PM air delivers for you, what's your elevation?

 

There are a number of things one can expect in December, no one type of weather is dominant throughout. Just have to look through the archives to see that.

 

I wouldn't say Pm delivers here as I'm quite low, it often brings wintry showers when the -5/6 isotherm gets this far across the Atlantic, but rarely settles below 150-200m. For example last year on January 14th, I woke up to a very light covering of wet snow on the car, bits of the grass etc. yet when I went south to the Mendips, there was quite a bit of accumulation above about 100m with 6cm at the deepest point. In my location we benefit from straight westerlies because there is a streamer effect off the Severn Estuary. When the air is cold enough, that means all manner of precipitation, the best being 20th/21st December 2009.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Extremely depressing outlook for cold & snow lovers in UK!

 

Yet we have had many promises of warmer summers......to be wrong.  Don't worry about that....and don't ignore caveats Ian put into that of pM and aM air not out of the question.....that could bring decent wintry weather at times.

 

BFTP

[Costa Del Fal]

Only in mountainous areas does rainfall look to be a problem. For the rest of us, just mild and damp sums it up. Could be far wetter really for the majority of us.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Only in mountainous areas does rainfall look to be a problem. For the rest of us, just mild and damp sums it up. Could be far wetter really for the majority of us.

 

Yes, could be a lot worse, Friday 13th will probably feel freezing, as we're used to warm temps

[Methuselah]

Only in mountainous areas does rainfall look to be a problem. For the rest of us, just mild and damp sums it up. Could be far wetter really for the majority of us.

And where does all that excess rainfall end up? I don't think it all stays on the tops of mountains...

[marksiwnc]

It has been a shocking couple of days in nw Wales with regard to extensive heavy rain. Does anyone know where I can get a local accurate amount of rainfall in the last 48 hrs??

[Costa Del Fal]

And where does all that excess rainfall end up? I don't think it all stays on the tops of mountains...

I know where it ends up thank you very much? Seems to be a number of 'patronising' likes supporting your post. Sarcasm or not, I don't appreciate those who seem to be showing signs of being against me here or as if trying to point out with a sign saying 'idiot here'. That's not what this forum is about (or at least I thought it was) and not what I am about either. Im disappointed if that's what some people are here - seemingly trying to shoot me down for contributing my viewpoint? I'm not stupid for those who maybe trying to make that out. I will stop posting and leave if my observations and viewpoints are not worth considering. I work full time and long days (just come in after being out the house for 14 hours) and don't really have time to post more thorough insights and viewpoints as I would like. But please assume I hold some common sense otherwise I may as well not bother? I have been on this forum for about 9 years and studied geographical and hydrological topics for years. I'm well aware of where water ends up thank you. I enjoy coming on netweather and contributing (and to get away from normal life briefly). It's a shame some seem to think my posts are invalid. Would like to think I have earnt a bit of respect to not deserve patronising comments/actions.

I'm just talking about what is actually falling in ones location. For most of us, we won't be seeing huge amounts. But yes, downstream of some Rivers, flooding could be an issue - I.e NW Wales and western Scotland. Given the location of the highest rainfall, still going to affect a very small number of people only. Certainly not to mean they don't matter though. What I am saying is that it's not a countrywide washout and we have had worse spells. This is simply highly laden moist warm air dumping its contents as it rises over steepening terrain. Still, fairly standard Autumn stuff.

Apologies for the rant above but I feel it's necessary. Just disappointed some seeming to be liking to try and show idiocy where it doesn't exist. I always try and be fair and support others. I understand people have a viewpoint, that many people don't have time to post comprehensive posts that cover every corner to cover their backs to avoid being shot down. Maybe I should have made it clearer I'm talking about rainfall falling in an actual location. Still, never mind...

Edited November 10, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[jgbgt]

I may be miles off but;

NW/SE split

Wet/dull and very mild

Euro dry settled

Sw/w wind, long fetch

Is a Bartlett setup now a real consideration?

When is it considered such, only in hindsight, in effect a description of a past event? Are we now staring down the barrel of it?

Seriously worried now. Not one frost it even cold morning yet down here.

Edited November 9, 2015 by jgbgt

[fergieweather]

I may be miles off but;

NW/SE split

Wet/dull and very mild

Euro dry settled

Sw/w wind, long fetch

Is a Bartlett setup now a real consideration?

When is it considered such, only in hindsight, in effect a description of a past event? Are we now staring down the barrel of it?

Seriously worried now. Not one frost it even cold morning yet down here.

It may end up (first week Dec) more varied from SW to W to NW based on this evening's EC Monthly update but either way, westerly/zonal/mobile. The +ve temperature anomalies show continued longevity, remaining (for much of the UK) right to end of the new run. The net result remains low heights to NW, and opposite to south. It's clearly going to take some shifting, this broadscale pattern!!

[bobbydog]

It may end up (first week Dec) more varied from SW to W to NW based on this evening's EC Monthly update but either way, westerly/zonal/mobile. The +ve temperature anomalies show continued longevity, remaining (for much of the UK) right to end of the new run. The net result remains low heights to NW, and opposite to south. It's clearly going to take some shifting, this broadscale pattern!!

how long can this pattern last though? when the polar night sets in properly, will this not have an influence on the winter weather patterns? it would be disappointing for those of us who like our seasons to be how they 'should' be to find that this winter is memorable for its mildness.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I may be miles off but;

NW/SE split

Wet/dull and very mild

Euro dry settled

Sw/w wind, long fetch

Is a Bartlett setup now a real consideration?

When is it considered such, only in hindsight, in effect a description of a past event? Are we now staring down the barrel of it?

Seriously worried now. Not one frost it even cold morning yet down here.

 

Well nothing scientific but I have this overwhelming feeling that this winter won't be remembered for its bartletts or long fetch southwesterlys.

[Peter H]

Seriously worried now. Not one frost it even cold morning yet down here.

Yep, same at this end. Back to the same old and absolutely nothing remotely cold for the next two weeks according to the models. Looks pretty much like a Bartlett set up to me.

Frustrating when we had so many set ups in late spring/early summer that would have resulted in seriously cold weather at this time of year.

I know it's not officially winter yet, but December is only a few weeks away now. Once the patterns get into a rut like this it's going to be very, very, hard to shift, if past experiences are anything to go by.

I think it starting to look like yet another very mild, wet, windy and snowless winter with little or no frost.

Incredibly mild here today. Don't think I ever remember temperatures of 17C at this time of year, ever.

[Peter H]

Well james madden is forcasting a severev winter,thats good enough for me

He's been doing that for how long now ?

If we wait long enough he's bound to get it right at some stage.

[cheese]

Yep, same at this end. Back to the same old and absolutely nothing remotely cold for the next two weeks according to the models. Looks pretty much like a Bartlett set up to me.Frustrating when we had so many set ups in late spring/early summer that would have resulted in seriously cold weather at this time of year.I know it's not officially winter yet, but December is only a few weeks away now. Once the patterns get into a rut like this it's going to be very, very, hard to shift, if past experiences are anything to go by.I think it starting to look like yet another very mild, wet, windy and snowless winter with little or no frost.Incredibly mild here today. Don't think I ever remember temperatures of 17C at this time of year

Doesn't matter if it's 17C or -20C - it has no bearing on winter. The weather in November is irrelevant to the weather in winter.

 

Edited November 10, 2015 by Nick L

[Twilight]

Doesn't matter if it's 17C or -20C - it has no bearing on winter. The weather in November is irrelevant to the weather in winter.

 

cheese is correct don't worry so much all you cold lovers.

Traditionally cold weather in November is followed by mild winters.

Let me recite this old wives tale "if there's ice in November that will bear a duck there'll be nothing after but sludge and muck.

Edited November 10, 2015 by Nick L

[Polar Maritime]

Just a reminder that there is a Winter thread open, Lets try and keep discussion loosely based around the Models in here.

 

Thanks, PM.

[JeffC]

I'm just waiting for a game changing moment - it's alright the models predicting this, that & the other, and clever as they are they have data which I don't have and even if I did I wouldn't understand the bulk of it. The thing is, 2009 - we had (hopefully!) once in a lifetime floods, followed 2-3 weeks later by an extremely cold snap, and it was the low pressure associated with the flooding that seemed to switch things around.

I wasn't on here or taking that much notice of weather generally back then, but from what I've heard it wasn't really picked up on by the models until well after the rain had gone, and from what I see now, although there's nothing to suggest such a game changer, I've not heard there is definitely not one either!

 

Hope springs eternal...

 

This may be better in the winter thread. Possibly

Edited November 10, 2015 by JeffC

[Froze were the Days]

I'd be very surprised if we get a 'cold' CET month follow on a month or so after this November which could turn out very mild. I've been recording late autumn/winter weather since 1983 and have noted of the last decade or so when we get such mild occurring month/months early in the season a cold month does not 'pop' up soon after,Maybe a cold spell maybe but that'll do me after what I'm seeing on the models at present!

Edited November 10, 2015 by Froze were the Days