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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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Proper summer time type elevated storm rolling through here in Croydon atm, plenty of rolling thunder, a few close strikes and v. Heavy rain. Was watching black skies close in as I was heading home from work at Heathrow. Happy days.

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Quite a storm nearby definitely elevated. 

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Hmm wonder if anything else will pop up certainly a lot more active than forecast 

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Top end of Cuxton here, few flashes and couple of strikes. 

Loxley view of it coming up from the south.  (south facing window... Bliss)

 

... Really bright flash just now. 

Edited by anything-but

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Just witnessed a purple CG :shok: 

Another one very nearby to my east!  

Edited by Daniel*

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Excuse the language but OMFG - CG straight overhead with immediate gun shot thunder - scared the bejesus out of me!!!!!

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Spoke too soon rumbles shepherds Bush way hail shower ;)

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Darker to my North than to my South. Gone quiet again, but raining heavily. 

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25 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016

ISSUED 17:01 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 17:01 UTC Added SLGT over SE England for the evening hours as coverage of mid-level convection increases, but still some uncertainty as to the true extent of any lightning activity given marginal instability

UPDATE 07:50 UTC No change to overall expectations highlighted below, LOW area has been extended farther N across northern England into SE Scotland for very low chance of embedded convective activity overnight

Falling heights as an upper trough pivots NEwards across Britain and Ireland, coupled with a moist low-level airmass and rather slack surface flow, may allow some deep convection to occur across central Ireland on Sunday daytime, the focus gradually shifting a little westwards with time. Hence scattered showers or pulses of showery rain are likely at times, which may produce some sporadic lightning given 200-300 Jkg-1 CAPE.

Moisture plume will also begin to advect north on Sunday afternoon/evening across southern and eastern Britain from the nearby Continent. At the same time, flow will continue to back as upper trough migrates NEwards, steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing instability. It seems likely that at least some elevated convection will occur but in an environment with rather meagre CAPE (50-100 Jkg-1) and hence even if this does develop, it is still rather questionable as to how much lightning activity there will be, and the overall risk is deemed to low to issue a SLGT (which requires >30%). Main area of interest is from IoW-Humber eastwards, generally the risk increases as you head further E.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

Another update

UPDATE 18:16 UTC Extended SLGT northwards across East Anglia based on latest guidance as plume continues to destabilise through the evening hours

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-03

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Does anybody know if I can upload a video from my iPhone/iPad - I luckily got to record the deafening gun shot clap a short while ago :yahoo:

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Does anybody know if I can upload a video from my iPhone/iPad - I luckily got to record the deafening gun shot clap a short while ago :yahoo:

If you mean directly to here? Sort of, but it only provides a link for people to download it. It's better to upload to Youtube or Vimeo.

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Def got some instability moving up from the south

DSC00089.JPG

oh dear!,sferics dying off now tough

spoke too soon lol

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Def got some instability moving up from the south

DSC00089.JPG

ohdear!,sferics dying off now tough:(

Unfortunately I think anyone west of a line from Brighton to The Wash will struggle to see much this evening now. I think a better chance for us tomorrow but that means I will be stuck in an office and won't be able to get to really see it. Never mind, a nice surprise for some in the SE and soon EA will join in too with a lot more than I expected.

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Just heard a distant rumble here in Southend. Bring it on!

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If you mean directly to here? Sort of, but it only provides a link for people to download it. It's better to upload to Youtube or Vimeo.

Thanks Mapantz will try and work something out.

Ive attached a couple of screen grabs in the interim - the second pic shows what I assume is a stepped leader 

image.png

image.png

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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Unfortunately I think anyone west of a line from Brighton to The Wash will struggle to see much this evening now. I think a better chance for us tomorrow but that means I will be stuck in an office and won't be able to get to really see it. Never mind, a nice surprise for some in the SE and soon EA will join in too with a lot more than I expected.

 

going off to breath a sigh of relief (hopefully)

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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Unfortunately I think anyone west of a line from Brighton to The Wash will struggle to see much this evening now. I think a better chance for us tomorrow but that means I will be stuck in an office and won't be able to get to really see it. Never mind, a nice surprise for some in the SE and soon EA will join in too with a lot more than I expected.

Yes you could be right,just looking at developements toward luton/milton keynes and oxford way that might produce something,one to watch.

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6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

 

going off to breath a sigh of relief (hopefully)

You should be fine as far as tonight goes. Tomorrow however, a lot more areas could be joining in this ball game...

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39 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Hmm wonder if anything else will pop up certainly a lot more active than forecast 

Sferics showing up again in the channel.

Edit:Lutons just kicked off:yahoo:

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Seems to be more sferics in the Channel...

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Can here rumbles outside. Pretty nasty looking sky.

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