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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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We had torrential rain, heavier rain and then later on when the rain moved North we had spinning torrential showers..and then this, didn't get much bigger before it collapsed...20151006_182100_zpsuge5fach.jpg

Looks like teasing scud. Was it rotating?

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Crikey, what have I been missing?! Other half (weather switched off most of the time) never even mentioned last night's storms when I talked to him an hour ago. I'll interrogate tomorrow! I drove back from Couzeix (Haute Vienne) last night through torrential rain and it was awful. Was woken last night by deluges several times and this morning at about 0700 it was incredibly heavy and loud. All is peaceful here now, little wind and clear skies, and it looks very calm in the medium to long term. Getting quite cold overnight too...

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http://www.estofex.org

Looks like might get an overnight firework display according to estofex....looking at detail could be quite severe if it pans out....Currently 29c and feeling humid here near giardini Naxos.....Sicily....

Edited by WillinGlossop
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http://www.estofex.org

Looks like might get an overnight firework display according to estofex....looking at detail could be quite severe if it pans out....Currently 29c and feeling humid here near giardini Naxos.....Sicily....

Strong synoptic lift approaches Sicily beyond 00Z which should support a rapidly eroding cap and increasing chances for CI. MLCAPE in excess of 3 kJ/kg, 20 m/s 0-3 km shear and SRH-1 in excess of 300 m^2/s^2 will overlap and supercells with very large hail, excessive rain, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are anticipated. A significant tornado event can't be excluded as forecast hodographs show a looped signature with 50 kt at 800 hPa around 03Z over W-Sicily (GFS).

This activity spreads E/NE until 06Z and affects S-Italy, too. A level 3 was strongly considered, but timing issues of DMC activity and ongoing model discrepancies in coverage of storms kept this event in an high-end level 2.

 

Flippin' eck, that is a severe setup! I hope you've got a balcony and a crate of beers to enjoy the show, then a basement to hide in if it kicks off..  :help: 

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Flippin' eck, that is a severe setup! I hope you've got a balcony and a crate of beers to enjoy the show, then a basement to hide in if it kicks off.. :help:

Edited by WillinGlossop
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Flippin' eck, that is a severe setup! I hope you've got a balcony and a crate of beers to enjoy the show, then a basement to hide in if it kicks off.. :help:

Got balcony and huge Windows looking towards etna and the sea at villa... Will stock up on wine and see what happens... Going to acriele down coast in a mo for some late lunch/early dinner... Will report when and if anything kicks off... Feels really humid, temp on car 30c....http://www.wetteronline.de/webcam/giardini-naxoshttp://www.meteosurfcanarias.com/webcams/new/beach-cams-region_sicily.phphttp://www.alltravels.com/italy/sicily/webcams

Here above are some sites with local webcams...

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Lightening out to sea but rain so so heavy....

Constant for two hours now.... Roads around must be mental....

Edited by WillinGlossop

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Not happening here unless overnight.....humid as though.....

24c feels like 27c here.....

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Shotgun lightening atm.... 22c humid.... Tipped it down all night.... So much lightening but low cloud meant flashes rather than forks.... At one point had six inches of water on ground.... Round two seems to be approaching...

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your missing some very interesting weather in the uk,   , if you like bland nothingness  :D

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Drove passed messina lunchtime with storm flashing and booming towards calabria but was sunny and warm on the north coast.... Really good thunderstorm but nothing too severe here....

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Drove passed messina lunchtime with storm flashing and booming towards calabria but was sunny and warm on the north coast.... Really good thunderstorm but nothing too severe here....

You are in a very beautiful place. Hubby and I have spent some holiday time there, and we did have some lovely storms but also many, many perfect days, but when I went again for a conference, I remember being stuck on an aircraft at Palermo airport for almost four hours during a storm which made it impossible to have any ground movement and so for us to disembark...

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More storms and flooding in sicily, southern italy, adriatic again yesterday/today.... Estofex reports say some places have had 200 mm in six to nine hours! Some good link with photos on their reports.... Sadly deaths too....

Edit, got back home yesterday afternoon.... Was nice warm break, dropped car off early as directions to drop it off werent great.... So had extra hour and half sitting in sun ☀ï¸â˜€ï¸â˜€ï¸ Feeling the cooler weather though back here.... Put woodburner on yesterday when i got in.....

Edited by WillinGlossop

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I was loving the clouds today although of the non convective type there was some beefy ones

 

mammatus type  that looked a bit angry with a base to it :)

 

post-16960-0-16472900-1444942637_thumb.j

 

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Potential for a storm or two in SE England overnight tonight

Edited by SxK

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Potential for a storm or two in SE England overnight tonight

May I ask where you are seeing this risk? No mention of thunderstorms in the UK for a long while.

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Isolated risk of thunder overnight in the south, some weak CAPE ahead of the cold front bringing the rain NE overnight, wave developing along the front expected to pep up the rain towards SE England early Weds morning before it clears, so could be isolated embedded thunder.

 

Airmet forecast mentions:

 

NEAR FRONT: BKN/OVC CUSC AND AC, WITH OCNL RA/SHRA, ISOL HVY SHRA. ISOL TSRA AND CB IN S.

 

Better chance of thunder from the heavy showers spreading in across SW England in the unstable rPm airmass here tomorrow though.

Edited by Nick F
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Isolated risk of thunder overnight in the south, some weak CAPE ahead of the cold front bringing the rain NE overnight, wave developing along the front expected to pep up the rain towards SE England early Weds morning before it clears, so could be isolated embedded thunder.

 

Airmet forecast mentions:

 

NEAR FRONT: BKN/OVC CUSC AND AC, WITH OCNL RA/SHRA, ISOL HVY SHRA. ISOL TSRA AND CB IN S.

 

Better chance of thunder from the heavy showers spreading in across SW England in the unstable rPm airmass here tomorrow though.

Might see something then though highly unlikely.

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Isolated risk of thunder overnight in the south, some weak CAPE ahead of the cold front bringing the rain NE overnight, wave developing along the front expected to pep up the rain towards SE England early Weds morning before it clears, so could be isolated embedded thunder.

 

Airmet forecast mentions:

 

NEAR FRONT: BKN/OVC CUSC AND AC, WITH OCNL RA/SHRA, ISOL HVY SHRA. ISOL TSRA AND CB IN S.

 

Better chance of thunder from the heavy showers spreading in across SW England in the unstable rPm airmass here tomorrow though.

Presumably this is the same unstable airmass as we currently have over here in France. I saw the front moving in this morning as I drove to Poitiers, lots of sunrise illuminated AcCas...it was quite beautiful. Thunderstorms forecast for both here in Poitiers and back home in Limousin for this afternoon into tonight. I'll keep you posted when I get back from work - please, though, don't let me meet them on the drive home!

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Storms popping off in france now,will they swing into the SE of the uk overnight,good luck down there :D

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Storms popping off in france now,will they swing into the SE of the uk overnight,good luck down there :D

Incredible. Just arrived back to Haute Vienne from Poitiers. Lightning started to be visible on the horizon about 50km from home. CGs and ICs in many directions. I was really scared leaving Poitiers as it was raining heavily but no storms and I dreaded the busy roads in the rain and the dark. But for some very bizarre reason I found the lightning very comforting and calming and actually enjoyed watching it light up the roads and the countryside all around me. The worst of the rain only came on the last 20km or so of the home stretch, and by the time I got back I felt so good. Storm therapy! Still going all around out there, and lights dipping. Need to dry my hair a clothes now as I got soaked coming in from the car...

 

Back off going bonkers here with thunder and lightning. I'm sitting in the dark watching the room light up every few seconds and hearing the thuuner echoing around the hills. Listening to the strikes on lightning maps at the same time. This is amazing!

Edited by Spikecollie
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Here's last night at 2100 over here. 'Twas good enough:

 

21-00.gif

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