Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

[Stormyking]

Pentesticumulus

[Sprites]

Well there is no doubt that the weather seems exciting this Evening but I think this is taking too far with these cumulus.

 

Sorry I had to share this haha, took this off my iphone

 

cumuloshaftus

[Stormyking]

Sexticularcumulus

[Gordon Webb]

looking at latest charts and forecasts forecast for my area seems to have been downgraded from showers frequent potentially heavy and thundery to a mainly fine day with showers fairly few and far between

[NO LONGER POSTING]

looking at latest charts and forecasts forecast for my area seems to have been downgraded from showers frequent potentially heavy and thundery to a mainly fine day with showers fairly few and far between

 

TBH bud, the models are far of the mark this morning already apart from the EURO4..

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even the EURO4 is slightly of... Still looks okay for a isolated rumble or 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ay 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 18 Sep 2015 - 05:59 UTC Sat 19 Sep 2015

ISSUED 20:24 UTC Thu 17 Sep 2015

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough, and associated (intensifying) cold pool will, continue to migrate SEwards across England and Wales on Friday. Showers will be ongoing across SE England at the beginning of the forecast period as a shortwave sits close to the area, while an old occlusion brings showers southwards through Wales.

 

Elsewhere, diurnal heating will allow scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop, with the most intense cores producing hail 1.0-1.5cm in diameter. Given slow storm motion, and areas of low-level convergence, prolonged heavy downpours could give accumulations of 20-25+mm in places, with a risk of local flash flooding. Local convergence in an otherwise fairly slack regime, coupled with low cloud bases, suggests the risk of a few funnel/brief tornado reports. Showers/storms will generally decay through the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides.

 

 

 

 

Now all we need is the sun!

 

 

Low cloud should burn back as it is here already some nice clear spells to!

[Gordon Webb]

Issued at: 

0926 on Fri 18 Sep 2015

Valid from: 

1200 on Fri 18 Sep 2015

Valid to: 

1900 on Fri 18 Sep 2015

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely across East Anglia this afternoon, possibly becoming focused into a slow moving band for a time during the mid to late afternoon.

Be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding and difficult driving conditions in association with these heavy showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure will lie across southeastern parts of England this afternoon, with scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread over East Anglia, with the potential for 20 mm of rain to fall within an hour and very locally 30 mm within 2-3 hours.

 

 

this issued by the met office

Edited September 18, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Issued at: 0926 on Fri 18 Sep 2015

Valid from: 1200 on Fri 18 Sep 2015

Valid to: 1900 on Fri 18 Sep 2015

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely across East Anglia this afternoon, possibly becoming focused into a slow moving band for a time during the mid to late afternoon.

Be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding and difficult driving conditions in association with these heavy showers and thunderstorms.

An area of low pressure will lie across southeastern parts of England this afternoon, with scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread over East Anglia, with the potential for 20 mm of rain to fall within an hour and very locally 30 mm within 2-3 hours.

this issued by the met office

I don't think the word 'thunderstorm' should be used. Quite misleading IMHO. Just gonna be heavy showers and maybe a flash or two Edited September 18, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I don't think the word 'thunderstorm' should be used. Quite misleading IMHO. Just gonna be heavy showers and maybe a flash or two

 

only time will tell 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun out here.. First signs of convection to.. 

 

 

 

 

Pretty dark base on that tiny cell north of me.. looks like it's going up!

 

Looking south to looks like something going up!

 

People Further east of me this looks good 

 

 

 

Edited September 18, 2015 by Surrey

[Methuselah]

Amazing shades of green/black here, now...Will it happen?

[Neilsouth]

Just had a monsoon of rain in Herne Bay, second time this week!  This year has been completely different from last

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Things edging the right direction? 

[Evening thunder]

This year has been completely different from last

 

Same here.. however this year has been awful for convection when last year was great! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

crumbs! Cell just went from blue to purple on radar about a mile down the road from me!

Edited September 18, 2015 by Surrey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

HUGE convective drops of rain here no thunder yet..

 

[Greeny]

Lots of convective skies around Norwich at the mo

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Very scatty storms

[chionomaniac]

Must be a good day for the chance of a funnel cloud along the southern coast. I would be very interested in the cell around Southampton for this

[Stormyking]

Well that was fun, nice small storm jsut rolled through here, Lightning was frequent, had a couple of loud rumbles, but the structure of the cell that came in looked pretty awesome to be honest, with some torrential rain too

[Condor Vitesse]

Bah i see Lincs trying to get in on the action again!!!!!!! Lol

[William Grimsley]

Amazingly, I've mist out on everything today, a downpour went straight to the east of me by just 3 miles!

[Flash Elvis]

We got thunder here but cannot see the lightening as yet!!!

[Callie]

Had a brief storm!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks like western areas of the South are likely to miss out on any further showers or storms and it's all now confined to Eastern coasts.

Not a particularly active day though - I remember Sept and Oct last year we had lots of smaller storms all along the south coast. This year it seems to be the midlands and (as usual) Lincs and East Anglia.

Grrrr. Woof.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I can see the top of a giant anvil out the (pub) window. It's to the south and west of Guildford.

Looks like my reverse psychology worked! Showers popping up to the west of London and drifting southwards... YaY!!!