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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

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Clear increase in mid-level instability here which coinciding with the activity further south excites me a little :yahoo:

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That Newhaven/Eastbourne storm is really popping off now,one sferic SW of Basingstoke too,looking good so far:D

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Early days yet and there is so much going off??  For once lol

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The Sussex storm looking awesome on blitzortung at the moment with the cells bit further west still producing! Cell approach Hastings area also kicking out still...somewhat gobsmacked really. I'm due north of the W Sussex cells so need to keep fingers crossed it keeps on rolling.

As I type fresh strikes south of Pompey in Channel

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Nice convection going on here inland 

DSC_0086.JPG

 

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Early days yet and there is so much going off??  For once lol

Agreed Surrey,and only early in the season too:)

Cherbourg storm has kicked off again as well.

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Some strikes around Whiteley now, hard to imagine as here we just have slate grey skies and drizzle.  That storm in East Sussex looks fun!

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Agreed Surrey,and only early in the season too:)

Cherbourg storm has kicked off again as well.

It's all too far west! Why can't those cells to my SSW get going! Grrrr!

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2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

It's all too far west! Why can't those cells to my SSW get going! Grrrr!

I feel your frustration will,they may pick up later,just keep an eye on them:)

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Storms are definitely not moving directly due north more north north west 

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I feel your frustration will,they may pick up later,just keep an eye on them:)

I'll be storm chasing tomorrow if I'm too near the coast.

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Start listening out you Surrey chaps...distant thunder soon I should think.

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I have a time window for later tonight and into tomorrow morning if owt pops up here,as i am on afters,may chase tonight if they are potent enough but what is giving me the doubt's is how fast they are moving,going to need a jet lol.

Edit: sferic S of Coventry:D

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Just moving in here now - no thunder/lightning witnessed yet despite blitzortung going for it still!

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Multiple cells firing up over the brest peninsula now,will they produce sferics?

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 04 Apr 2016

ISSUED 17:01 UTC Sun 03 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 17:01 UTC Added SLGT over SE England for the evening hours as coverage of mid-level convection increases, but still some uncertainty as to the true extent of any lightning activity given marginal instability

UPDATE 07:50 UTC No change to overall expectations highlighted below, LOW area has been extended farther N across northern England into SE Scotland for very low chance of embedded convective activity overnight

Falling heights as an upper trough pivots NEwards across Britain and Ireland, coupled with a moist low-level airmass and rather slack surface flow, may allow some deep convection to occur across central Ireland on Sunday daytime, the focus gradually shifting a little westwards with time. Hence scattered showers or pulses of showery rain are likely at times, which may produce some sporadic lightning given 200-300 Jkg-1 CAPE.

Moisture plume will also begin to advect north on Sunday afternoon/evening across southern and eastern Britain from the nearby Continent. At the same time, flow will continue to back as upper trough migrates NEwards, steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing instability. It seems likely that at least some elevated convection will occur but in an environment with rather meagre CAPE (50-100 Jkg-1) and hence even if this does develop, it is still rather questionable as to how much lightning activity there will be, and the overall risk is deemed to low to issue a SLGT (which requires >30%). Main area of interest is from IoW-Humber eastwards, generally the risk increases as you head further E.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Multiple cells firing up over the brest peninsula now,will they produce sferics?

I bet you thought about me when writing that post. LOL. Looks like both of the thunderstorms are still going which is awesome! One is now smashing into Sevenoaks and the other one heading towards Maidstone!

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Think I just heard my first elevated rumble - first bout of rain just gone through. Skies still look good to my S/SE

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2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I bet you thought about me when writing that post. LOL. Looks like both of the thunderstorms are still going which is awesome! One is now smashing into Sevenoaks and the other one heading towards Maidstone!

I did Will,maybe early hours,good luck.:)

Edited by Allseasons-si
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First flash observed off to my SSE - think Surrey is right - definitely a NE shunt to this lot visually anyway 

Stunning CG off to my S :yahoo:

Edited by Harry
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Yet again at this moment,we are storm capital of europe:yahoo:

just.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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The bolts while not incredibly numerous are stunning when they occur - repeat strokes and stretching across the whole sky! 

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