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Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

Thunderbolt_

By Thunderbolt_
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

How lovely of you to make that. My Aire Valley supercell of July 1 is on there, so amazingly distinctive. Especially now, in retrospect, having watched it with my little storm watching dog who died a few weeks ago, it is so special. Thank you so much...can you send me the file - I'll PM my email address?

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

How lovely of you to make that. My Aire Valley supercell of July 1 is on there, so amazingly distinctive. Especially now, in retrospect, having watched it with my little storm watching dog who died a few weeks ago, it is so special. Thank you so much...can you send me the file - I'll PM my email address?

 

It's not my video. You'll have to contact the original uploader. :)

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

That only contains CG strikes though, is that correct?

 

No, I think it does show some CC's, but yes, far more CG's are shown.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Amazing video. Shows how many storms skirted around the central SE / Guildford area this year. Fortunately I went to the storms a lot of the time when they did happen nearby, but I think bar a few very good plume events this year hasn't been great for storms.

It does put into context how regularly thunderstorms occur over mainland Europe, and why storm chasing is a much more rewarding hobby over there!

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

What a great idea that timelapse of the lightning, shows how majestic it can be. Props to the author.

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Pat Butcher Enthusiast

Pat Butcher

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

How lovely of you to make that. My Aire Valley supercell of July 1 is on there, so amazingly distinctive. Especially now, in retrospect, having watched it with my little storm watching dog who died a few weeks ago, it is so special. Thank you so much...can you send me the file - I'll PM my email address?

 

I remember watching that Aire Valley supercell from Leeds. It was never closer than 25 miles away, but that strobing lightning was beyond anything I've ever witnessed before. Sorry to hear about your dog. You can use a Youtube Downloader service if you want your own copy of that video - do a quick Google search. Give me a shout if you need any help.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted (edited)

I remember watching that Aire Valley supercell from Leeds. It was never closer than 25 miles away, but that strobing lightning was beyond anything I've ever witnessed before. Sorry to hear about your dog. You can use a Youtube Downloader service if you want your own copy of that video - do a quick Google search. Give me a shout if you need any help.

Thank you so much. Some of my friends in Leeds reported the same - seeing a stroboscope effect in my direction and being very baffled! It was stunning and even more special (because of Spike) than realised at the time. I'll PM you if I need help with the download...

Edited by Spikecollie
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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

I just posted this in my fb group...

Next week looks like a change is in store. GFS is currently indicating a broad low pressure system centred over Iceland extending down over the UK bringing the moisture back and the possibility of convectivity. As this clears over a couple of days another low is forecast to head our way. Theres always room for the forecast to change but it does look like a good indication a change in weather is on its way. We'll look at it a bit more as we get nearer the time.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

My weather channel app has gone a bit whappy, forecasting thunderstorms all through Saturday night! I really cannot see that happening.

 

Tuesday looking a possibility though at this stage for a few late season Autumn storms.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

I'm getting all excited now that I'm back in Limousin from Dijon. T-storms forecast for tomorrow and next week. It's certainly warm and humid, and the sun was very warm even in Paris as I passed through. Could be posting some lightning photos!

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

I'm getting all excited now that I'm back in Limousin from Dijon. T-storms forecast for tomorrow and next week. It's certainly warm and humid, and the sun was very warm even in Paris as I passed through. Could be posting some lightning photos!

The last week here when the sun is out its really quite strong although the air is quite cool. It can be a bit confusing when one moment you feel cold the next too hot. As mentioned earlier as a low approaches things could break down start of next week.

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Over the last few days, the GFS has been continually hinting at the possibility of some thundery showers on Tuesday. With CAPE levels of 300-500 j/kg and lapse rates of 25-27C across western England and northern Wales, we could definately see some thunder and lightning. However the wind shear is quite weak, so it is unlikely that we will see anything organised...

 

post-21671-0-03319300-1443912903_thumb.p post-21671-0-47137600-1443912904_thumb.p post-21671-0-92476100-1443912906_thumb.p post-21671-0-68400700-1443912905_thumb.p

 

This could be our last chance for this season...

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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted

Over the last few days, the GFS has been continually hinting at the possibility of some thundery showers on Tuesday. With CAPE levels of 300-500 j/kg and lapse rates of 25-27C across western England and northern Wales, we could definately see some thunder and lightning. However the wind shear is quite weak, so it is unlikely that we will see anything organised...

 

attachicon.gifCAPE.png attachicon.gifLapse.png attachicon.gifShear.png attachicon.gifRisk.png

 

This could be our last chance for this season...

a very slender chance at that Scott ..
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

The Midlands and southern half of N England looking very good currently. Latest Meto forecast has gone mad with the thunder symbols! Never trust them anyway as they are very hit and miss with using those. However it could be the last proper thundery day of the season especially for those inland.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

I see the BBC forecast mentioned heavy and potentially thundery showers following the rain band. Might be a bit of interest for some! :)

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Looks like Tuesday the best chance, from the NMM4 

 

post-9615-0-32870000-1443983491_thumb.pn

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Come on BBC! This is complete and utter overkill...

 

post-21671-0-41466500-1443989138_thumb.p

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted (edited)

supercells comming your way lad !!!!! :).

 

I wish... more like low cloud and drizzle.

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Some lovely cells going through the English Channel right now. Unfortunately, as per usual they are going to my east and west.

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TwisterGirl81 Experienced

TwisterGirl81

Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted

Some lovely cells going through the English Channel right now. Unfortunately, as per usual they are going to my east and west.

 Me too, usually the way

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Pat Butcher Enthusiast

Pat Butcher

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
  • Popular Post
Posted

Due to tomorrow's forecast of naff all windshear and an alright chunk of CAPE, it's time for a davethedog convective forecast.

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 06 Oct 2015 06:00 to Wed 06 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Oct 2015 16:10
Forecaster: DAVETHEDOG

A HUMDINGER FREE ZONE was forecast for mainland Britain. Due to a sizeable chunk of CAPE floating above our cities and towns like an alien invasion if aliens were made out of slightly unstable airmasses, a few storms will pop up somewhere.

There's no cool stuff like wind shear floating around, so whilst the odd high street might become a massive puddle for a bit, we don't expect anything other than the odd flash punctuating an otherwise rainy autumn day, as Brits everywhere complain and sneeze into their Lemsips.

Winter is coming. 

post-23162-0-30495100-1444057299_thumb.p

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