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Advisories will be issued from 11PM.

Models suggest that it will recurve from the south to Hawaii (or just miss it). Historically it's where they get the strongest systems from.

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The active Central Pacific season continues with the formation of Tropical Depression 03C. The CPHC makes an interesting comment that this is the sixth tropical cyclone to exist within the basin so far this year. 03C is forecast to strengthen, slowly at first due to moderate shear, followed by faster intensification when it eases. A west-northwest heading is expected intitially, followed by a recurve as SB has said. The timing of this curve is uncertain.

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03C has become Tropical Storm Kilo with winds of 35kts. The system has struggled to organise due to shear, but this is forecast to lessen. Kilo will also be moving over very warm water with high ocean heat content. These factors suggest Kilo could begin intensifying significantly in about 24hrs or so.

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Now forecast to curve too late to hit Hawaii.

 

A large hurricane could produce a significant swell though.

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Kilo refuses to strengthen, and has in fact weakened back to a tropical depression with winds of 30kts. Just why is a bit of a mystery. Shear is low and waters warm, however, Kilo's broad LLCC is often exposed on the eastern side of waxing and waning convection. Strengthening is still forecast, as Kilo is eventually expected to respond to the favourable environment it is in. Kilo has been moving quite quickly to the west-northwest but is still expected to slow down and recurve to the northeast. The timing of this curve is uncertain as it does depend on just how strong Kilo gets.

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Two days later, and Kilo is STILL struggling. As soon as a decent amount of convection flares up, it's gone again six hours later. Winds are down to 25kts. Moderate shear is now affecting Kilo, but even when the shear was low the system still refused to strengthen. It really has some real inner core issues which has stopped the depression strengthening. Track forecasts have veered way way west with Hawaii no longer remotely in the firing line. Some slow northward motion is expected briefly, followed by a track back west as ridging to the north builds back in. CPHC still expect strengthening, just when this will occur remains to be seen.

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Kilo is finally strengthening, and quite quickly at that. The system is a tropical storm again, now with winds of 55kts. The storm has a much more compact look on satellite imagery and has a much better defined LLC flanked by strong banding features. If current organisation continues in this vain, it won't be long before Kilo is a hurricane. The storm appears to finally be moving to the southwest as the steering currents pick up again after the very slow motion of Kilo for the last day or so. A turn towards the west, northwest then north is expected as the ridge to the north quickly breaks down. Conditions are apparently favourable for further intensification, but Kilo has proven a very fickle system so far. It certainly looks much better than it ever has done at the moment however.

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After 9 days of disorganisation despite a seemingly favourable environment, Kilo has finally become a hurricane, with winds of 65kts. A small central dense overcast is evident, with an eyewall developing, though there is no eye evident in conventional satellite imagery just yet. Conditions appear favourable for further strengthening, though CPHC are being cautious with their intensity forecast, which is understandable given Kilo's history. This long lived system is forecast to be a 105kt Major Hurricane/Typhoon by day 5; I say typhoon as Kilo is likely to move into the Western Pacific by this point as ridging builds back in to the north, stopping the soon anticipated northwestwards motion and steering the hurricane back to the west.

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An eye has developed today, and winds are up to 80kts. It seems like Kilo could strengthen, at least slowly, over the next 5 days. CPHC are expecting Kilo to be a 115kt category 4 hurricane by the time it slowly moves across the dateline into the Western Pacific basin.

At 9 days old, and still forecast to be going strong at day 5, Kilo could end up being a very long lived storm, especially as even beyond day 5 it's still at fairly low lattitude with plenty of warm water to traverse.

It's also remarkable to compare the early track forecasts with Kilo's eventual track. A recurve northeast into Hawaii was originally forecast, yet Kilo has contstantly trended much much further south and west. The track map in my first post on this thread is way off!!

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Kilo has rapidly intensified and is now a 110kt category 3 major hurricane. Further intensification appears likely.

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Kilo has continued to strengthen and has become a category 4 hurricane with winds of 120kts. Interesting to note that Major Hurricane Ignacio to the east has also become a category 4 hurricane; it's a very rare occurence to have two simultaneous category 4 hurricanes in the Central Pacific.

No additional strengthening is forecast, though it's not out of the question as shear is only forecast to rise to 10kts through the forecast period and waters will remain warm throughout the next 5 days along the forecast track. Intensity if hurricanes this strong are also governed by eyewall replacement cycles. Kilo is forecast to remain a major hurricane through the next 5 days as it slowly moves northwestwards then westwards into the Western Pacific.

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Moderate shear of about 20kts is affecting Kilo, which has caused a little weakening, to 115kts. However, Kilo is still maintaining a very well defined eye in microwave imagery, despite not looking all that impressive on conventional satellite imagery. It's ironic now that Kilo is dealing with 20kts of shear well, when earlier on it was struggling in much less. Kilo is crawling north-northwestwards and is forecast to remain a slow moving hurricane as it veers west across the dateline. Kilo is expected to remain a major hurricane for at least the next 5 days, especially as shear is expected to ease.

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Kilo has moved into the Western Pacific basin and been classified as a typhoon. Shear has weakened Kilo, and winds are down to 90kts, cat 2. Further weakening is expected in the next day or so as Kilo slowly drifts northwestwards in weak steering currents. Ridging to the north is expected to become strong and more dominant of Kilo in a few days, promoting a faster westward track. At the same time, shear is expected to ease, promoting re-intensification in the longer term. JTWC have Kilo back up to 120kts by day 5.

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Kilo has fluctuated between cat 1 and 2 status over the last 4 days whilst slowly drifting west. Currently, winds are at 80kts. Now firmer ridging is in place north of Kilo, a faster westward motion is expected, followed by a northwestard curve in a few days time as Kilo reaches the western side of the ridge. Now that poleward outflow is increasing, shear is low and waters warm, some more robust strengthening is expected, with a 120kt peak still forecast (equal to Kilo's first peak in the Central Pacific). Weakening will occur beyond 3 days due to increasing shear and cooler waters.

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Interesting to note that Kilo is currently 16 days old at this stage, and will be around for at least another 5 days, meaning a lifespan of at least 3 weeks is on the cards, which is unusual, but not unheard of.

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19 day old Kilo is struggling. The typhoon has not strengthened since I last posted, and has instead weakened to 65kts. Moderate southwesterly shear and impinged outflow has caused the weakening of Kilo. Kilo is now expected to roughly maintain intensity and then recurve northeast to the east of Japan whilst becoming extratropical.

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