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Roger J Smith

September 2015 CET forecasts

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CET averages and extremes for September

 

 

22.6 ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)

16.8 ... warmest (2006)

16.6 ... second warmest (1729)
16.3 ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

 

15.1 ... 2014 CET

 

14.4 ... average 2001-2014
14.0 ... average 1981-2010

13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 2013 CET
13.6 ... average 1961-1990
13.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000
13.3 ... average 1659-2014
13.1 ... average 1801-1900

13.0 .. 2012 CET

12.6 ... average 1659-1700

11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied 14th coldest (1986)
10.7 ... coldest recent month and sixth coldest (1952)
10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)
10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

___________________________________

 

post your forecasts before the end of August (penalties apply for forecasts posted 1-3 Sept, absolute deadline end of 3 September.)

 

 

 

Expect some additions to this table in a few days as I am on the road ...

15.1 last year

14.0 is the 1981-2010 average

13.7 is the 1971-2000 average

13.6 is the 1961-1990 average

enter your forecasts by end of day 31st Aug

Will edit in the other stats by Sunday

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13.8 please.

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I'll go for 13.3 please

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I reckon its going to be a warm September and quite plumey too, and then turn unsettled at the end of the Month so im going for 14.8'c

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14.1c for me please. :)

 

 

Just slightly above average Costa, be brave like pjl20101 and go 15.1C, wonder if low sunspot activity will cause another dull month. :rofl:

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I reckon its going to be a warm September and quite plumey too, and then turn unsettled at the end of the Month so im going for 14.8'c

 

While I've gone cooler I do agree with this. September I expect will be the most settled month we've had in a while and pretty dry.. the calm before the storm (I expect a stormy Oct-Dec).

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17C  :(  Last sub 11C September in 1952.  Last sub 12C September in 1986.  Last sub 13C September in 1994.

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17C   :(  Last sub 11C September in 1952.  Last sub 12C September in 1986.  Last sub 13C September in 1994.

Hopefully the last ever!

 

14.4C for me.

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I can only dream of a sub 11C September.

 

How amazing that would be. Given the recent run of September's above 13C (the longest in the series), I'd settle for one in the 12's this year (enough to qualify as the coldest in my lifetime).

 

We are however a very long way from beating the longest run of September's above 12C, which spanned 53 years from 1705 (11.9C) to 1758 (also 11.9C). The current run of 28 years pales in comparison.

 

The longest run without a sub-11C September was a whopping 145 years, from 1807 (10.5C) to 1952 (10.7C), although a few in between were 11.1C or 11.2C. It may be a long time before we see another, if at all :(

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Can't personally see it being a particularly cool September: will go for 14*C please.

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How amazing that would be. Given the recent run of September's above 13C (the longest in the series), I'd settle for one in the 12's this year (enough to qualify as the coldest in my lifetime).

 

We are however a very long way from beating the longest run of September's above 12C, which spanned 53 years from 1705 (11.9C) to 1758 (also 11.9C). The current run of 28 years pales in comparison.

 

The longest run without a sub-11C September was a whopping 145 years, from 1807 (10.5C) to 1952 (10.7C), although a few in between were 11.1C or 11.2C. It may be a long time before we see another, if at all :(

 

As with everything its only a matter of time............

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Below is the September CET from 1659-2014 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.


 


GpQyspa.png


 


The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 15.4 and 16.4C after corrections. The average September following Augusts within that range is 13.5C.


 

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.21C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 13.7C.

The linear trend since 1850 is +0.71C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.1C.

The linear trend since 1950 is +1.74C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.4C.

The linear trend over the last 50 years is +2.39C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.5C.

The linear trend over the last 30 years is +4.22C per century. Following this trend gives an September CET of 14.7C.

 

Our current run of mild Septembers is very similar to that which occurred in the early to mid 1700s, which had a peak 30 year average of 14.0C, compared to the current 30 year average of 14.1C

 

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