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Gray-Wolf

Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

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19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Now at 40% by day 5.

Yes, that's for the tropical wave that is currently southwest of the cabo verde islands. Both the gfs and ecm pick this up and develop it somewhat on  west to northwest track. However, the expected pattern in north America is expected to keep this away from the mainland next week.

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The potential on the CV storm is bubbling up very quickly. Would mind betting this will be our first Hurricane of the season.

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It's ok, after a 6 day thunderstorm free Italy holiday at the back end of July, we are off on a 3 week road trip to the States at the start of September so dont expect the hurricane season to start until we are back.

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The NHC is now giving a 70% chance of tropical development to the low which is in the middle of tropical Atlantic.

Huge differences between GFS and ECM this morning. The GFS develops that tropical low into a major hurricane just on the eastern coast of Florida. The ECM makes nothing of it.

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I'm back in Antigua on Saturday. Was hoping for a quiet season but it's looking the opposite unfortunately. 

We've already issued a no new business note to all our Caribbean islands. In case you're wondering I work for a Caribbean insurer.

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15 hours ago, Lauren said:

The potential on the CV storm is bubbling up very quickly. Would mind betting this will be our first Hurricane of the season.

Designated 96L.

I think there’s a good chance of a hurricane based on track and the fact it’s August but there are still modelling differences in about a week.

Both Euro and GFS agree that the jet stream will try amplify with an upper low somewhere around the Gulf but disagree completely on its handling. GFS has this feature somewhat cut-off, shallower and further north so in the face of a developed hurricane it would probably back west doing nothing more than aid outflow. The Euro however has it sharper, extending into Cuba and much better phased with the main jet stream meaning that it would recurve and shred anything that gets near the south east coast.

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The 6z gfs has abandoned the idea of the hurricane, in fact it doesn't develop the low at all.

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NHC has downgraded development chances too.

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4 hours ago, Lauren said:

NHC has downgraded development chances too.

Yes, this season just doesn't want to get going properly. Maybe the cooler ssts in key areas of the tropical Atlantic being the main limiting factor now that the el nino has fizzled.

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4 hours ago, karyo said:

Yes, this season just doesn't want to get going properly. Maybe the cooler ssts in key areas of the tropical Atlantic being the main limiting factor now that the el nino has fizzled.

I think we all know where we are heading this year.....

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And it's gone completely. Surprised there's such little activity so far.

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Forget about the Atlantic for the next week or so, it is a snoozefest! Look at the Pacific where it is typhoon galore! One looks like crashing into Taiwan and eastern China in a few days and then another one flirting with Japan.

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It's perfectly normal for the Atlantic basin to be quiet this early in the season. Activity usually ramps up in the second half of August.

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Nothing......absolutely nothing,  probably just as well with the flooding in Florida already.

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I know it's not unusual to not have had a had a hurricane now, but only 2 mild named storms and absolutely nothing on the horizon is unusual. However NOAA have now revised their estimate to say they think it will be an above average season. If that's the case the next 3 months are going to be intense!

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18 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I know it's not unusual to not have had a had a hurricane now, but only 2 mild named storms and absolutely nothing on the horizon is unusual. However NOAA have now revised their estimate to say they think it will be an above average season. If that's the case the next 3 months are going to be intense!

One would have thought if they were to revise their estimate, it would now be for a quieter season!  Perhaps the season will kick in with a vengeance this year?!

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It looks like the two issues so far have been forcing persisting over the East Pacific (limits us to the eastern Atlantic) and surprisingly the -AO which seems to have led to an abnormally strong mid-latitude jet stream and suppression over the Tropics.

The good news however is that firstly ENSO is trending negative so the deeper we go into the season, the better things may be. Also that the AMO is now highly positive. Finally that the Saharan Air Layer is the weakest since 2002.

In terms of timing we have a CCKW passing the Atlantic around the 20th which should leave more favourable and moist conditions in its wake however my own thinking is to remember that peak season extends right to late October and so to take the storm total to halfway and expect to beat that in the second half.

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Tropical Tidbits is showing a lot more activity coming off Africa over the next few days, but things have been unusually quiet. NHC have upgraded their forecast to now be above average. Not sure where they are getting that from, but they're the experts!

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23 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Tropical Tidbits is showing a lot more activity coming off Africa over the next few days, but things have been unusually quiet. NHC have upgraded their forecast to now be above average. Not sure where they are getting that from, but they're the experts!

I think SSTs being above average in the Tropical Atlantic now and no El Nino event on the horizon favour a more active hurricane season.

anomnight.8.15.2019.gif

Question is will all the Saharan dust continue to suppress activity as it has done so far? or will it lift?

If it doesn't we could end up with a hurricane season like 2013 but if it does lift I think it will be an active one again.

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1984 and 1999 got to 13 and 12 so you can get away with it.

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At long last some interest! Both UKMO and ECM show two tropical lows close to the US coast in about 4-5 days time. The more southern low has the potential to become a tropical storm or even a hurricane as it slowly moves northeastwards.

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