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Great start to the new season last night.

That was one of the more spectacular storms in terms of CG lightning, hail and gusts - even more impressive, we still have power and internet service.

Lightning strikes in the area and WV imagery showing the complex air mass to the west and the destabilisation of the plume.

l8BDt6z.gif      seviri_eurnat_wv6-2_20160410_2200.jpg

Maybe a reprise tonight, if the AROME is right - storm activity to the north currently.

Live lightning link.   http://www.meteociel.com/observations-meteo/foudre-direct.php

 Precipitype radar.   http://www.meteociel.com/observations-meteo/radar2.php?mode=1

 

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Yes, Nouska, a reprise is indeed possible. We're starting to get strikes showing up in this direction too. Last night was beautiful. I didn't get anything very close, but the lightning over the hills illuminating the clouds was magical as usual. I got some audible thunder and closer flashes at about 0100 and then it just deluged!

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Some good summary and pictures from the last few days.

http://www.meteo-paris.com/actualites/de-frequents-orages-du-10-au-13-avril-mais-des-degats-limites-13-avril-2016.html

Yesterday was particularly spectacular for storms here. I had thunder almost all day and some amazing CGs and ICs.

More forecast for later today...

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Météo France orange alert for t-storms for part of this region for this afternoon. Please - not the golf ball hail!

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2016041706_201604160625_2_stormforecast.xml

Eeek!

Edited by Spikecollie

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No damage from the large hail last night; will we be as lucky tonight.

The storms forecast to move through quickly but still another 40mm or so to add to the deluge yesterday.

aromehd-1-10-3_eqa4.png

Maybe more threat from wind tonight with meso-low forming.

 

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11 minutes ago, Nouska said:

No damage from the large hail last night; will we be as lucky tonight.

Maybe more threat from wind tonight with meso-low forming.

 

I don't know Nouska. For some reason I feel more anxious about today's incoming storms than previous day's. It's probably just seeing the alerte orange and Estofex and having seen pictures of the damage caused two days ago in the paper. I hope we all stay safe. I love storms, but I just don't want any damage (for myself or others). When my phone line was blasted in January it was just a quick storm that was over in minutes, but it's the CGs that count!

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Strikes starting to be detected in Aquitaine now...

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Looking interesting from here on out. A nice warming coming up, and not before time. I have got some cycle rides in, but yet to go without a jacket and in shorts. Horrible here today. Had thunder in the morning over the hills, but very distant. And just heavy showers all day. I keep having to cover and uncover my seed bed because even with the daytime rain it freezes at night, Looking forward to warm!

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Plenty of ingredients at the end of the week @Spikecollie - whether it destabilises enough is another question..

Screenshot_2016-05-25-10-48-40.png Screenshot_2016-05-25-10-47-17.png Screenshot_2016-05-25-10-46-52.png

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Thought I'd move my post in the other thread into here as is relevant to this region.  

Still looks like decent conditions for severe thunderstorms including perhaps a few supercells over near continent this Friday . Very warm and moist boundary layer (sfc dewpoints mid-upper teens) and height falls steepens mid-level lapse rates and contributes to a moderately unstable environment (MLCAPE perhaps to 1500J/kg or slightly higher) over central/northern parts of France. Veering and strengthening winds in the mid-levels (with modest SW'erly jet aloft) results in substantial deep layer directional shear (40-50Kts bulk shear), increasing risk of organised/severe convection. Only problem is the numbers don't look that high, particularly at lower levels. Overall, though, CAPE/shear spread looks just sufficient for organised/rotating updrafts.  Large hail likely given the CAPE values and shear.  Tornado risk inhibited given the relatively slack flow at low levels and only modest SRH. 

Might post a few relevant charts tomorrow evening or Friday (into meso. model. time frame) if risk looks the same.

For UK: Increasing likelihood of risk of more general storms extending into southern and SW parts of England/Wales during same period as we pull in warmth and moisture, with forcing from height falls and disturbances aloft triggering storms. Risk perhaps continuing into overnight Friday and into Saturday.

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Which makes my timing of a visit to Angouleme over the weekend look perfect

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Looks like 00z Arome is modeling a couple of right-moving supercells this evening across central regions of France. Conditions favourable for well organised storms and potential supercell activity given overlap of good deep layer vertical wind shear (thanks to reasonably strong and veered mid-upper level jet winds) and possibly moderate CAPE (1000-1500J/kg MLCAPE).  Interesting. 

 

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Been fascinating watching radar over central/northern half of France today.  A few clear right moving storms (supercells) on radar, with one recently in the Somme region dropping a tornado (see link below). Also radar image of the cell in question.  Even using this radar you can make out the hooking on the SW side of the storm.

http://forums.infoclimat.fr/topic/87871-suivi-du-temps-dans-le-nord/?page=10#comment-2724680

hiradarzoomv42.png

As mentioned, was watching all the storms on radar and a few were diving to the right of the mean storm motion vectors, so indicative of supercells. Pretty pleased today has came off how I anticipated.  Conditions for severe storms were pretty obvious on NWP outputs in advance, with ideal mix of instability and shear.  But sometimes things don't always pan out how one would expect.  

Supercell in Dijon this evening:

Cje_eFrXAAAnn8g.jpg

From Keraunos' twitter page: https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw.

Also made a mention of the (30 degree) deviation in storm track in relation to mean storm motion.  Good stuff.

Edited by weather09

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41 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Watching lightning strikes, amazing frequency going on in Southern Germany right now

Best to view German webcams using http://livespotting.tv/ and take your pick. Augsburg is about to have a good show

 

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Football friendly Germany V Slovakia been stopped due to big storms

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The storm near Wuertzburg is mental!

 

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9 minutes ago, Odd Spot said:

It is, and with it nearing darkness it should look, shall we say, bright

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/wuerzburg-hotel-alter-kranen/532ae055853b9/ 

New storms appearing NE of the main line now. I wonder if there are outflow boundaries kicking off new convection?  Interesting developments. I have in-laws down that way so hope everyone stays safe and well - the A3 must be a nightmare!

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Had a severe TS yesterday here, 2 cm hail, a funnel and around 100mm in 2 hours, basement was flooded approx 3 cm!

 

Right now there is a TS storm watch (just heard a rumble) and a flood warning for my area.

 

Meanwhile a possible deadly development is unfolding in some mountainous areas in germany:

Some youtube vids

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-EOqE8wAII

 

Edited by Knoxgar

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12 minutes ago, Knoxgar said:

Had a severe TS yesterday here, 2 cm hail, a funnel and around 100mm in 2 hours, basement was flooded approx 3 cm!

 

Right now there is a TS storm watch (just heard a rumble) and a flood warning for my area.

 

Meanwhile a possible deadly development is unfolding in some mountainous areas in germany:

Some youtube vids

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-EOqE8wAII

 

Awful! I love a good storm but that is just destructive and terrifying, no fun at all. I hope no one is hurt!

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