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knocker

A summer forecasting challenge for Friday

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Forecasting rainfall for the UK during the summer has always posed a more difficult challenge than other times of year – and the weather for this Friday is a perfect example.

 

The various computer models the Met Office uses to forecast the weather differ on how a low pressure system forming to the west of the UK will behave.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/07/22/a-summer-forecasting-challenge-for-friday/

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Features approaching from the south almost always seem to cause forecasting trouble. The 'usual' way things go is that it will probably skirt through the channel and miss us totally!

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A similar thing happened last Sunday. By Thursday's forecast for Sunday, it was looking like a total write off for the south, with rain all day. What actually happened was an hour of moderate rain during the night followed by a glorious summer's day!

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I would say 5-10 mm for most of southern England, 10-20 mm potential for Kent and east Sussex, as this system does not look overly strong. Monday will probably be twice as wet and the rain will cover larger parts of central and northern England too.

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I hope my area gets a soaking on Friday. Drought conditions now.

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Well so far I'd say we've had a real soaking - 30mm here in Reading with more on the radar. There's a chance that it could turn out to be the wettest day here since 2007.

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